The ground battle for Kyiv must begin in the “next few days” otherwise Russia will face the prospect of a humiliating defeat in Ukraine, a leading British general has told The National.
Gen Sir Richard Barrons has been astounded by the performance of Russia’s commanders, soldiers and equipment in the war so far, following the initial “colossal strategic failure” in deciding to invade.
Another senior military figure has suggested that Ukrainian generals have available excellent intelligence, received from the West, which means they have a better understanding of Russian deployments than Moscow’s commanders.
With at least 60 Battalion Tactical Groups closing in around the Ukrainian capital alongside continuous artillery bombardment, the battlefield is set up to suggest a major attack is imminent.
“If there’s going to be battle for Kyiv, it’s got to start in the next few days, otherwise the Russians will just wear themselves out on the ground,” said Gen Barrons, former deputy chief of the defence staff.
“And if they’re going to go for it, then we would expect to see at least two axes develop along key roads where they basically pound their way towards the city centre.”
The National reported on Tuesday that Kyiv’s civic resistance leader said the attack could come only through the heavily defended approaches from the east and west because the River Dnieper, along with deliberate flooding, made the north and south impassible.
A full-scale assault would be bloody, with significant casualties among the attackers along with hundreds of civilian deaths from Russian shelling.
If it succeeded, it would be hard for President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s government to continue, but if it failed, “it’s game over for Russia’s political aspirations”, said Gen Barrons, 62.
“And I think the Russians are sufficiently alarmed to think can’t they afford to start this without knowing they can win it,” he said.
“Their numbers simply do not allow them to conceive how they could fight for the whole of Kyiv.”
In the 1945 siege of Berlin, the similar-sized city of 2.5 million people was surrounded by 1.5 million Russian troops who suffered 80,000 fatalities taking the German capital. About 60,000 Russian soldiers are in the Kyiv area.
The Russians were also struggling because Nato’s surveillance and eavesdropping aircraft on Ukraine’s borders were picking up significant intelligence on their intentions and movements, according to the military source, who asked to remain anonymous.
“The Ukrainian generals probably have a better knowledge of where the Russian troops are than the Russian generals,” he said. “You don’t have to fly them over Ukraine to know what’s going on the ground. A lot will be known from electronic intelligence and communications intelligence.
“Where are their modern T-90 tanks? Where are their top armour formations? Where are their drones?” he said. “What they are seeing is making Russia look very flat-footed.”
With at least 5,000 soldiers killed and more than 20,000 seriously injured, Gen Barrons suggested this must soon have a severe impact on morale as “there are not many countries that want to do war at that price”.
“The Russians massively underestimated how the Ukrainians would respond and phenomenally overestimated their own capability,” he said. “What I am surprised about is just how poor the Russian conventional army has been at every level, with a quarter of the troops being conscripts whose hearts are clearly not in this.”
Gen Barrons, who served in Iraq and Afghanistan, said the Russians would not try “recover from their mistakes” and “sequence their battles better” by doing fewer operations at once. This would allow them to apply their core strength of “attritional firepower against the urban areas to just make the Ukrainians give up”.
The invasion force, estimated at estimated 150,000, was not “big enough or good enough” to occupy Ukraine by force “and they’re definitely not going to get occupation by consent beyond the separatist areas,” he added.
The dream of conquering all Ukraine had clearly “faded” and instead Russia would look to looking “to secure irrefutable territorial gains” that would form the basis for a ceasefire, said Gen Barrons.
The military source also suggested Russians might “freeze the conflict” if they managed to take all or parts of Kyiv, pushing Mr Zelenskyy’s government out then holding on to gains in the east and south.
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Smoke rising in Kyiv, which mayor Vitali Klitschko says faces a 'difficult and dangerous moment' as Russian forces step up strikes. AFP -
Pope Francis meets visitors holding the Ukrainian flag during his weekly general audience in the Vatican. AFP -
An anti-war protester demonstrates against Russia's invasion of Ukraine in front of the Nato headquarters in Brussels. AFP -
A poster in Saint Petersburg carries the letter Z, a symbol of support for the invasion, and reads: "We are proud of Russia! We are not ashamed!" AFP -
Amid the Ukraine war, there's time for a seaside stroll in Odesa. Reuters -
A child who fled from Ukraine to Belgium waits outside an immigration office in Brussels. EPA -
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy receives a standing ovation as he appears via videoconference to make an address to Canada's Parliament. AP -
A woman walks with a bicycle next to a building damaged during the conflict in the separatist-controlled town of Volnovakha, Donetsk region. Reuters -
A firefighter outside a destroyed apartment building in a residential area of Kyiv. AP -
Ukrainian soldiers pay tribute to Col Valeriy Gudz, who was killed in battle against Russian troops, at a cemetery in the town of Boryspil. AP -
Firefighters work to extinguish a fire in a housing block hit by shelling in the Sviatoshynsky district, in western Kyiv. AFP -
Two people were killed as a series of powerful explosions rocked residential districts in Kyiv just hours before talks between Ukraine and Russia were set to resume. AFP -
The Met Opera and Chorus performs during 'A Concert For Ukraine' in New York City. AFP -
A worker welds metal at the Interpipe Steel plant in Dnipro, Ukraine. Hundreds of Interpipe’s 10,000 employees have joined the fight against Russia. AP -
A woman is rescued by firefighters from her apartment in a burning building that was hit by artillery shells in Kyiv. AP -
Rescuers work at a building damaged by an air strike, in central Kharkiv, Ukraine. Reuters -
A woman who fled Ukraine to Belgium waits outside an immigration office, in Brussels. EPA -
Cars stuck at the Irpin River bridge, as Russia unleashes a barrage of air strikes on cities across Ukraine. AFP -
A firefighter looks at a section of a Ukrainian Tochka-U missile on a street in the separatist Donetsk region. The Russian military said 20 civilians were killed by a ballistic missile launched by the Ukrainian forces. AP -
Musician Davide Martello plays a piano near the Ukrainian border in Medyka, Poland. More than 1.76 million people have crossed the Polish-Ukrainian border into Poland, the Polish Border Guard reported on March 14. EPA -
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, left, snaps a selfie with a wounded man during a visit at a military hospital after fighting in the Kyiv region.AFP -
Ukrainian soldiers carry rocket-propelled grenades and sniper rifles as they walk towards the city of Irpin, north-west of Kyiv. AFP -
Troops carry an elderly woman on a stretcher across a makeshift bridge as Ukrainians flee Irpin. AFP -
Irina Moprezova, 54, stands in front of a house that was damaged by an air strike in Irpin. AFP -
The flags of Russia and Ukraine are projected on the walls of Jerusalem's Old City, which a representative from the Jerusalem Municipality said is a show of support for diplomatic dialogue between the countries. Reuters -
A person holds a Ukrainian flag during an anti-war demonstration at the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin, Germany. Reuters -
A Ukrainian soldier takes cover as people flee Irpin. AFP -
Ukrainians shelter in an underground train station during the day in Kyiv. EPA -
A Ukrainian serviceman walks carefully with his weapon in the city of Irpin, near Kyiv. AFP -
Ukrainian people flee the city of Irpin, north-west of Kyiv. AFP -
Ukrainian servicemen carry an elderly woman on a stretcher from the city of Irpin. AFP -
A girl plays games on her tablet inside a subway carriage being used as a bomb shelter in Kyiv. AFP -
A Ukrainian firefighter drags a hose inside a large food products storage facility which was destroyed by an air strike on the outskirts of Kyiv. AP -
Ukrainian troops with a Javelin anti-tank missile on the front line in the northern Kyiv region. Reuters -
A woman carries her dog during an evacuation in Irpin. Reuters -
A Ukrainian woman takes shelter in a metro station during the day in Kyiv. EPA -
A member of the Ukrainian armed forces on patrol in Irpin. Reuters -
A Ukrainian fighter takes cover behind a car in the city of Irpin. AFP -
Firefighters at work after air strikes hit residential buildings in Chernihiv, northern Ukraine. AFP -
A man wounded in an air strike is helped by medical staff in Novoiavorivsk, western Ukraine. Getty -
The ruins of the Ukraine Hotel after recent shelling in Chernihiv. EPA
Key to the invaders now was to take the port city of Mariupol, which could be “pummelled into dust” to give the invaders a contiguous line linking annexed Crimea to Russia. This would also be a major blow to the Ukrainians and would allow the Russians to concentrate on the vital port of Odesa.
It was also important that Kyiv did not leave its best fighting troops to be encircled in Donbas in the east, “but the Ukrainians are too savvy to allow that to happen,” Gen Barrons said.
Whatever the outcome, the fighting was going to cause both Ukrainians and their Slavic cousins severe hardship and pain.
