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Ukraine called on Monday for immediate sanctions from Europe on Russia to act as a deterrent as tensions on the border push higher, but Western states maintain that a punishing package of measures will only roll out if the Kremlin pushes ahead with an attack.
"We expect decisions," Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said in Brussels before addressing EU foreign ministers. "We believe that there are good and legitimate reasons to impose at least some of the sanctions now to demonstrate that the European Union is not only talking the talk about sanctions, but is also walking the walk."
Josep Borrell, the EU foreign policy chief, said "the work is done" on the sanctions Russia faces while French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said the European Union was prepared to bear a significant cost to punish aggression. “We are aware of the consequences for the EU economy,” Le Maire said on Monday. “But the political principle is more important: we refuse any kind of attack against Ukraine’s sovereignty.”
The EU ministers backed plans announced last month for a 1.2 billion euro financial aid loan package for Ukraine, and also agreed in principle to a long-standing Ukrainian request for a small-scale mission of military instructors to help train officers.
Boris Johnson vowed on Sunday that Moscow would be “hit very hard” by any land grab and President Joe Biden has promised President Vladimir Putin that he will have “never seen sanctions like the ones I promise will be imposed”.
The main aim will be to cut Russia off from the global financial system and go after money its oligarchs have squirrelled away in the West.
Of all the countries threatening economic retaliation, Britain has the ability to inflict most pain with more Russian gold in London that anywhere else, spread across both the stock exchange as well as its affluent mansions.
Liz Truss, the Foreign Secretary, has promised to target anyone “providing strategic support” to Mr Putin’s regime, which carries weight because London is a vital capital-raising centre for oligarchs.
The London Stock Exchange is home to secondary listings for cash-raising to 31 Russian companies including Gazprom and Rosneft, as well as state banks and mining groups, with a total listing of £486 billion ($661.92bn).
In 2020 these entities paid the Russian state £39bn in tax, providing crucial government revenue, especially for the military which has an annual budget of about £41bn.
Parliament has now been given the power to impose sanctions on companies conducting business of “economic significance to the government of Russia”.
Britain also plans to vastly increase the number of pro-Putin Russians that are penalised from the 180 people and 48 entities sanctioned since the 2014 annexation of Crimea.
In the toughest scenario, companies in Britain, the European Union or US could be prevented from making transactions with any sanctioned Russian entity, essentially leading to a suspension of their shares.
Another dramatic move would be for the West to follow Mr Biden’s threat of excluding Russian banks from the international Swift system that is used to make billions of dollars in cross-border transfers.
The US has promised retribution on a Ukraine offensive. “The mother of all sanctions” has been threatened by Bob Menendez, chairman of the Senate’s foreign relations committee.
America has a sanctions bill that would hit at least 12 Russian banks as well as oil, gas and mining companies.
If the bill becomes law, unprecedented sanctions could lead to the swift designation of a wide range of people and entities.
But it is in the technology sector that the US could inflict the most pain by blocking exports of key components, particularly those that would affect the defence sector, as well as parts used in phones and appliances, causing widespread difficulties for Russia’s consumers.
While the US and UK appear to have tough penalties in place, the EU’s reliance on Russian energy could undermine a united front, particularly with Germany reluctant to ban the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.
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Russian President Vladimir Putin signs documents recognising two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine as independent. AFP -
A Ukrainian soldier walks past fragments of a mortar shell amid fighting near the front line in Travneve, Donetsk region. Reuters -
People wave Russian flags while celebrating Moscow's recognition of the self-proclaimed republic's independence, in Donetsk. AP -
Protesters gather at the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry in Kiev, calling on the EU to impose additional sanctions against Russia. Getty Images -
Members of the security forces walk in an underpass at a railway station in Kiev. Getty Images -
A Ukrainian soldier on the front line near the village of Travneve, in Donetsk. Reuters -
Alisa, 38, a media relations specialist, takes part in a combat skills training for civilians near Kiev. Reuters -
Alisa poses with a gun at her home near Kiev. Reuters -
A young girl takes part in a rally in defence of 'Ukraine, Europe and democratic values', organised by the Association of Ukrainians in Portugal, outside the Russian Consulate in Porto, Portugal. EPA -
A Ukrainian soldier takes time out to play with dogs on the front line near the city of Novoluhanske, in Donetsk. Reuters -
People gather under the Ukrainian flag for a Day of Solidarity with Ukraine at the Lincoln Memorial in Washington, DC. AFP -
Residents of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic cross from Ukraine into Russia, after it was announced that women and children would be led to the Rostov region due to rising tension in the area. EPA -
After the evacuation of separatist-controlled regions of eastern Ukraine, people complete documents in a temporary accommodation centre in Rostov, Russia. Reuters -
War veterans and volunteers train civilians in handling weapons on one of Kiev's city beaches. AFP -
Russian and Belarusian helicopters taking part in a joint military exercise of the allied countries’ armed forces. EPA -
Ukrainian National Guard soldiers at a mobile checkpoint together with the Ukrainian Security Service agents and police officers during a joint operation in Kharkiv, Ukraine. AP -
US President Joe Biden delivers a national update on the situation at the Russia-Ukraine border at the White House in Washington, DC. AFP -
A Polish soldier uses his phone, as US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin and Polish Defence Minister Mariusz Blaszczak visit the Air Base in Powidz, Poland. Reuters -
Mr Austin, left, addresses US troops stationed at the Powidz Air Base in Poland. AP Photo -
A woman walks to board a bus, arranged to evacuate local residents, in the rebel-controlled city of Donetsk, Ukraine. Reuters -
A satellite image shows an overview of helicopter deployments near Lake Donuzlav in Crimea, Ukraine. Reuters -
A Ukrainian Military Forces serviceman looks through a spyglass on the front line with Russia-backed separatists not far from Novolugansk in the Donetsk region. AFP -
A serviceman keeps position on the front line. AFP -
A Ukrainian frontier guard patrols along the border with Russia, some 40km from the city of Kharkiv. AFP -
US President Joe Biden speaks to the media about Russia's buildup on the Ukrainian border as he leaves the White House in Washington. EPA -
A Ukrainian frontier guard stands at a check point. AFP -
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and his Italian counterpart Luigi Di Maio enter a hall during a meeting in Moscow. Reuters -
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken addresses the United Nations Security Council. AP Photo -
An elderly lady walks by as members of the Joint Centre for Control and Co-ordination survey damage to a house from artillery shell that landed in Vrubivka, eastern Ukraine. AP Photo -
French President Emmanuel Macron arrives for an extraordinary meeting of EU leaders to discuss Ukraine at the European Council building in Brussels. AP Photo -
A local resident boards a train at a suburban area of Kiev. Reuters -
A woman stands among debris after the reported shelling of a nursery in the settlement of Stanytsia Luhanska, Ukraine. AFP -
A protester shouts slogans during a demonstration outside the Ukrainian parliament in Kiev against high government taxes. AFP -
A member of the 82nd Airborne Division of the US Army rests ahead of deployment to Poland from Fort Bragg in the US. AP Photo -
Members of the 82nd Airborne Division of the US Army clean weaponry ahead of deployment to Poland. AP Photo
Ursula von der Leyen, the EU Commission chief, on Saturday warned Moscow that its financial and energy sectors would be targeted despite Russia providing 40 per cent of Europe’s gas requirements.
“There's a big financial packet of sanctions that would cut off Russia from the financial markets,” she told CNBC. “A heavy blow for the economy and the export controls.”
She said that while gas exports to Europe “provided half of the Russian budget”, the EU was already looking towards others suppliers including the US.
A united and broad range of sanctions could certainly hurt Russia and cause significant long-term damage, as Europe now understands it has to wean itself off Moscow’s hydrocarbon dependency.
But for them to prove more effective than those imposed on Iran, the West must be ready to suffer its own economic pain. That will be a stiff examination of unity in the face of aggression.
