Boris Johnson looks increasingly likely to face a vote of no confidence in his UK leadership this week as he tries to shore up his authority with new appointments.
The number of MPs submitting letters is understood to be between 35 and 45, approaching the 54 required to trigger a poll on his leadership.
The British Prime Minister's authority was further undermined on Sunday when a senior Conservative and ally of Mr Johnson said it was “inevitable” his own MPs would remove him from office over the scandal of a string of Downing Street lockdown parties. Sir Charles Walker also said it would be in the national interest if Mr Johnson simply stepped down after the resignation of five key Downing Street advisers last week.
The turmoil gripping No 10 has yet to subside as Mr Johnson on Saturday made the appointments of an ardent Brexiteer, Steve Barclay, as chief of staff and a Remainer, Guto Harri, as director of communications.
Making an MP chief of staff is an unusual move and suggests Mr Johnson was struggling to find someone to fill a position that might prove short-lived. However, Mr Barclay’s Brexit credentials will appeal to MPs who fear that the prime minister had become surrounded with advisers who were Remainers or too left wing.
Aside from his previous anti-Brexit stance, appointing Mr Harri, 55, makes sense in that he worked closely with the prime minister when he was head of communications during Mr Johnson’s tenure as mayor of London.
However, Mr Harri, a fluent Welsh speaker, has at times been critical of Mr Johnson, suggesting in 2018 that he would be a “hugely divisive” prime minister.
But Mr Johnson’s aides were relieved there were no further damaging revelations this weekend after a suggestion that a picture of the prime minister holding a beer can at a lockdown party would be published.
However, a new damaging biography has been serialised on his wife Carrie that suggests she have over-exerted her influence on Downing Street operations.
Some reports say Mrs Johnson has been worn down by the pressures of the Partygate scandal – that could lead to her answering police questions over allegations of parties she hosted in the Downing Street flat – and has suggested to her husband that he quits.
Mr Johnson did receive support on Sunday from an unexpected quarter after former Conservative leader Iain Duncan Smith said he was against a confidence vote and that leadership contenders should “temper” their ambition.
“I’m not particularly in favour of plunging us now into a mess of votes of confidence, followed by leadership elections,” he told the BBC.
However, that could become inevitable as early as this week with Whitehall sources indicating that the 54-letter threshold to the 1922 Committee could soon be reached.
As Sir Graeme Brady, chairman of the 1922 Committee, keeps the letters strictly confidential it is difficult to predict the exact numbers, with only 13 MPs openly stating they had submitted them.
In Westminster circles, the numbers have varied wildly from “two dozen” to nearly 50.
If a confidence vote is triggered, then all 359 Tory MPs will vote on whether Mr Johnson should remain as leader with a simple majority of 180 required for him to remain as prime minister. If that happens, then no leadership contest can be held for another 12 months.
More MPs will reportedly go public with their letters this week, potentially building momentum for a vote.
Mr Johnson’s team hope to reach Thursday, when Parliament breaks for a 10-day recess, to regroup and begin to draw both MPs and the public’s attention away from a disastrous three months in government.
There are more pitfalls ahead, however. The Johnsons have yet to be interviewed by the Metropolitan Police over the Downing Street lockdown parties. If that results in a £100 fixed penalty fine for the prime minister, his authority might become fatally undermined.
He then faces full publication of the Sue Gray report which will provide far more detail on the breaches than the summary published on Monday last week.
In April the new 1.25 per cent National Insurance tax rise will arrive, along with higher energy bills plus inflation possibly hitting 7 per cent. Local elections will take place on May 5 with the Conservatives facing a potential disaster in losing control of scores of local councils.
Mr Johnson may well limp on until May but by then his position could have become so intolerable that the Conservative Party will revert to a more traditional defenestration method.
Previous prime ministers – Margaret Thatcher included – have received a delegation of senior party figures – referred to as “men in a grey suits” – informing them that it’s time to go.
