UK's population would fall by 2030s without migration

New data projects a net migration of 2.2 million in the next decade

The UK’s population would likely fall in the 2030s were it not for immigration, new data has suggested.

The Office for National Statistics projected a population increase of 3.2 per cent from the mid 2020s to the mid 2030s, or 67.1 million to 69.2 million.

That growth over the next 10 years will be driven by a net 2.2 million people migrating to the UK. In the decade to 2020, the population grew by 4.3 million, or 6.9 per cent.

In the next decade it is estimated there will be 59,000 more deaths than births, reflecting “an increasing number of older people as those born in the baby boom generations after World War Two and in the 1960s reach older ages”, the ONS said.

“These projections suggest slower growth than we’ve previously said. This is because of lower assumptions both about future levels of fertility and mortality improvements,” said James Robards, an ONS population and household projection statistician.

“Given a higher number of deaths and fewer births are projected, net international migration is expected to play an increasing role in population growth.”

In the UK in 2020 there were an estimated 1.7 million people over the age of 85 — or 2.5 per cent of the population. That figure is projected to nearly double to 3.1 million by 2045, which would represent 4.3 per cent of the population.

England’s overall population is forecast to grow faster by the mid 2030s (by 3.5 per cent) compared to Scotland (0.3 per cent), Northern Ireland (2 per cent) and Wales (2.6 per cent).