Experts fear Afghanistan will again become a haven for terrorist training camps and that Europe could face a wave of attacks in five years’ time.
Since 9/11, more than 30 Al Qaeda terrorists have been convicted of plots in Britain, most recently in July.
The Henry Jackson Society, a think tank, told The National the threat posed by the terrorist group on UK soil was “still very real”.
More than 260 Al Qaeda and ISIS extremists remain on the UK’s sanctions list and thousands of pounds of assets linked to them have been subjected to freezing orders.
The director of the Counter Extremism Project, Hans-Jakob Schindler, has worked in the UN Security Council unit that monitors ISIS and Al Qaeda.
He believes extremists from Europe may now travel to Afghanistan to train, and that terrorist attacks could increase when they return to the continent.
“Tragically, it feels like we have come full circle. We are very much in a situation where we run the risk that we are chasing our tail,” he told The National.
“Half of the Taliban’s new government are on the UN sanctions list for a very good reason. The Taliban and Al Qaeda are not separate and have never been separate.
“If European fighters travel to Afghanistan there are lots of material which has been left by the US that they can get trained on and in six months they can be ready to commit attacks.
“On social media we have seen extremists celebrating the victory of the Taliban and now Afghanistan is becoming a very attractive place to them, all of a sudden.
“In 2001, 10,000 foreigners went to Afghanistan to train with Al Qaeda. It might be five or even 10 years, if we do not pay attention, but it will happen again.
“We will have significant numbers of fighters in Afghanistan and lone wolf terror attackers training there and then returning to commit attacks in Europe.
“We cannot expect the Taliban to be reliable counter-terrorism partners in the future. The terror threat in Europe over time is going to become more serious.”
CEP’s chief executive, Mark Wallace, a former US ambassador to the UN for Management and Reform, fears Afghanistan will become a “sanctuary” for terrorists.
“Terrorism did not begin nor end with the tragedy of September 11,” he said.
“However, the attacks showed that groups like Al Qaeda are highly motivated to attack the United States on its territory. Recent events in Afghanistan have ignited concerns that the country will once again become a sanctuary to [extremist] groups, which could plot and direct attacks against the US and its allies.
“There is still much work to do to combat terrorists and the regimes that enable or harbour them.”
On Saturday, events took place across the globe to mark the 20th anniversary of the September 11 attacks.
Former US Homeland Security Advisor Frances Townsend urged the world to remain “vigilant”.
“The long-term effects of 9/11 are still unfolding today, as the US government works to curb terrorist threats emanating from the homeland and internationally,” she said.
“The tragic attacks from 20 years ago are a reminder that our military, intelligence agencies, and law enforcement communities must be unyielding in the ongoing effort to disrupt and destroy terror networks.
“The victims of that day and the families that they left behind as well as the heroic policeman and firefighters who still suffer the after effects must ever remain our inspiration to be committed, vigilant, and continue the fight.”
Last week, the head of Britain’s domestic intelligence service said the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan had “emboldened” extremists and could lead to more atrocities.
Ken McCallum said MI5 had disrupted six “late-stage” plots developed during coronavirus lockdowns over the past 18 months, and 31 in the past four years.
Abdul Jabar Qahraman was meeting supporters in his campaign office in the southern Afghan province of Helmand when a bomb hidden under a sofa exploded on Wednesday.
The blast in the provincial capital Lashkar Gah killed the Afghan election candidate and at least another three people, Interior Minister Wais Ahmad Barmak told reporters. Another three were wounded, while three suspects were detained, he said.
The Taliban – which controls much of Helmand and has vowed to disrupt the October 20 parliamentary elections – claimed responsibility for the attack.
Mr Qahraman was at least the 10th candidate killed so far during the campaign season, and the second from Lashkar Gah this month. Another candidate, Saleh Mohammad Asikzai, was among eight people killed in a suicide attack last week. Most of the slain candidates were murdered in targeted assassinations, including Avtar Singh Khalsa, the first Afghan Sikh to run for the lower house of the parliament.
The same week the Taliban warned candidates to withdraw from the elections. On Wednesday the group issued fresh warnings, calling on educational workers to stop schools from being used as polling centres.
Cricket World Cup League Two
Oman, UAE, Namibia
Al Amerat, Muscat
Results
Oman beat UAE by five wickets
UAE beat Namibia by eight runs
Fixtures
Wednesday January 8 –Oman v Namibia
Thursday January 9 – Oman v UAE
Saturday January 11 – UAE v Namibia
Sunday January 12 – Oman v Namibia
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Usain Bolt's time for the 100m at major championships
2008 Beijing Olympics 9.69 seconds
2009 Berlin World Championships 9.58
2011 Daegu World Championships Disqualified
2012 London Olympics 9.63
2013 Moscow World Championships 9.77
2015 Beijing World Championships 9.79
2016 Rio Olympics 9.81
2017 London World Championships 9.95
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
