US election results: what to watch for as Trump and Biden votes are counted

Here's what will matter most once the votes are cast in the race for the White House

A worker holds ballots inside a counting room at the Contra Costa County Clerk Office in Martinez, California on October 27, 2020. Bloomberg

The 2020 race for the White House has been unconventional in just about every way imaginable.

Covid-19 managed to throw a large wrench into what was already expected to be a wild contest between Democratic former vice president Joseph R Biden and the Republican incumbent President Donald J Trump.

Limited campaign crowds, subdued political conventions and Mr Trump’s very own Covid-19 diagnosis made the race one for the ages.

Now, however, the voting will soon end and the ballot counting will begin.

Keep in mind there are likely to be legal challenges given the unprecedented number of mail-in ballots because of the pandemic. Even without legal challenges, counting these ballots might take longer than usual in some states because of the sheer volume, so patience might be key.

That being said, here is what you will want to look out for as the finish line nears. And remember to focus on which candidate is approaching the 270 electoral college votes needed to win the presidency. That's all that matters.

Florida

Back in 2016 it was Florida which gave Mr Trump his first glimmer of hope when he started to overperform in the state and defeated Hillary Clinton to claim its 29 electoral college votes.

Both Mr Biden and Mr Trump spent some of the final days of their campaigns in Florida, as it is widely considered to be up for grabs again.

If Mr Trump begins to underperform in the state, his path to 270 votes becomes significantly more difficult. Florida is one of the states that counts the ballots which have been cast early as they arrive before election day — so it is likely to have quicker election returns compared to other states.

These factors make the state a good early indicator of how things might play out for the rest of the evening, although either candidate could still get to 270 without Florida.

The rural areas

Voter turnout in traditionally conservative rural areas of the United States will also be indicative of how election night might go for Mr Trump and Mr Biden.

In 2016, Mr Trump turned out voters in these areas at a much higher rate than Republican candidate Mitt Romney did in 2012, helping him to surpass expectations and surprise pundits.

If he is unable to replicate that success, he will likely be unable to win over the swing states of Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin and Michigan that were so crucial to his 2016 victory.

Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Ohio

For the most part, all of these states with the minor exception of Ohio were considered to be part of Hillary Clintons “firewall” in 2016 that would ensure her four years in the White House.

In total, these states represent 64 electoral votes that will be crucial to getting either Mr Biden or Mr Trump over the 270 mark. Neither candidate needs to win all of these states, but they are definitely worth keeping an eye on.

Early voting and mail-in-ballots

Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, unlike many other states, do not count their early ballots before election day.

Keep in mind that due to Covid-19, a record number of Americans – approximately 80 million – have already either voted early in person or mailed in their ballots. This could create an unprecedented glut of votes, and leave us waiting significantly longer than usual for results in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

Even in Michigan, where early votes are already being processed, Governor Gretchen Whitmer recently told CNN the state might not have a final tally on election night. Yes, even with all the build-up for election day, this might just be a game of hurry up and wait.

Although it has been widely reported that the surge in mail-in ballots favours Democrats, there has also been surge of in-person early voting, which could end up favouring Republicans.

Quite simply, there are still too many unknown variables for this unprecedented amount of early voting, so the counting of these particular ballots could throw up some surprises as to who benefits, and by how much.

Georgia

Polls indicate that the Democrats stand their best chance of putting Georgia in their column since Bill Clinton managed to win the state during his first campaign for the White House in 1992.

To the surprise of some, Mr Biden actually spent some time there during the closing days of his campaign. The Democrats don’t need to win Georgia, but it would give them more breathing room in the electoral race if they do.

If Mr Biden loses Georgia as well as the presidential election, however, there will be a lot of second guessing about whether or not Democrats should have spent so much time there in the final days of campaign.

Democratic turnout

If you hear pundits and analysts lament poor Democratic turnout once the polls close, Mr Biden could be in for a disappointing evening.

One of the major problems with Hillary Clinton’s campaign in 2016 was a lack of voter enthusiasm that eventually translated into a less-than-stellar turnout on election day.

She underperformed among the minorities and younger voters who helped propel Barack Obama to the White House in 2008 and 2012.

Although some polls show Mr Biden performing more strongly than Ms Clinton among these key demographics, there is still concern that enthusiasm for him is not where it should be, and the lack of undecided voters makes turnout all the more important.

If those fears about low turnout on election day come true, Mr Trump might become a two-term president.

Electoral college

There are many solid arguments for the United States to just ditch the electoral college and go with the popular vote to elect a president.

But until the system changes, the electoral college is all that matters on November 3.

The number to keep an eye on is 270 – if either Mr Trump or Mr Biden hit that threshold of electoral votes, we’ll know who the president is.

Don’t worry about the popular vote. Ms Clinton won it by almost 3 million votes in 2016, and it still didn’t get her into the White House.

Back in 2000, Al Gore won by almost 550,000 votes, and he too was left on the outside looking in as George W Bush moved in to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.