Incumbent American presidents almost always get re-elected. Of the 45 presidents, only five have not secured a second term.
But if current polling holds, Donald Trump could soon join his one-term predecessors.
Two national polls by the Washington Post-ABC and Zogby Strategies last week show Mr Trump trailing the Democratic nominee Joe Biden by 10 and 13 points respectively.
In swing states, numbers from Florida, Michigan, Arizona, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, show a heated race but Mr Biden is performing better at this point in the race than former secretary of state Hillary Clinton was against Mr Trump in 2016.
Mr Biden’s lead comes despite being shut up at his family home in Delaware for weeks due to the coronavirus pandemic.
Since March, the former vice president has mostly been running the campaign from his basement, holding online events on Zoom and interviewing potential running mates by phone.
But John Zogby, the head of Zogby strategies polling, says Mr Biden’s home-stay has not hurt his standing.
"Being in his basement is not a problem because we [the public] have adjusted to all these changes. We can't expect campaign rallies and knocking on doors," Mr Zogby told The National.
Mr Biden’s lead appears to be less about campaign and more of a referendum on Mr Trump’s record.
“Joe Biden is playing it wisely by allowing Trump to run against himself, and staying a bit behind the scenes has helped him,” Mr Zogby said.
The fallout of the pandemic, which has led to 40 million Americans becoming unemployed, and now nationwide anti-racism protests have hurt Mr Trump’s standing.
Mr Zogby said the next most important decision for Mr Biden will be naming a running mate.
He committed in March to pick a woman, and with anti-racism protests engulfing US cities, the pollster said picking a black woman for the position is now more likely.
“It’s not just about the progressive versus moderate split [within the Democratic party] but also the identity split," Mr Zogby said.
"What is happening moves him in the direction of picking an African-American woman plus the pressure."
Senator Kamala Harris, Congresswoman Val Demings, Georgia politician Stacey Abrams and Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms are all African-American women being considered by Mr Biden. He is expected to make a decision sometime around the start of August.
Despite Mr Biden’s current lead, some in the White House are hoping that the protests are another 1968 moment for the Republican Party.
Then Republican candidate Richard Nixon capitalised on riots to defeat former vice president Hubert Humphrey.
But Rachel Bitecofer, a senior fellow at the Niskanen Centre, who was most accurate in predicting the midterm election in November 2018, points to a very different situation today.
"First in the '60s we didn't have this polarisation, which is an actual measurable thing," Ms Bitecofer told The National.
"Second, white voters in 2020 are more liberal on racial attitudes than they were back in the '60s, especially on issues involving race and criminal justice and third, 1968 Nixon was running as opposition party [not incumbent].
“People look at Mr Trump and see him as part of the problem."
Her forecast gives Mr Biden an edge in winning on November 3 with at least 289 electoral votes (270 required to win).
“The forecasting has always been in favour of Democrats and Mr Biden is one of the more candidates that enjoy a broad appeal,” Ms Bitecofer said.
With the divide growing in the US between liberals and conservatives, she expects the polarisation to continue between now and voting day.
“Five months is a long time and the polarisation not going to change," Ms Bitecofer said.
"The fundamentals have been set in stone for a long time in this election cycle."
The Democrats are also polling ahead in key Senate races such as Arizona, Maine and North Carolina, but it is unclear if they can regain four seats and take the majority in that chamber.
Profile of Bitex UAE
Date of launch: November 2018
Founder: Monark Modi
Based: Business Bay, Dubai
Sector: Financial services
Size: Eight employees
Investors: Self-funded to date with $1m of personal savings
David Haye record
Total fights: 32
Wins: 28
Wins by KO: 26
Losses: 4
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Kane (50')
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Porsche Taycan Turbo specs
Engine: Two permanent-magnet synchronous AC motors
Transmission: two-speed
Power: 671hp
Torque: 1050Nm
Range: 450km
Price: Dh601,800
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Globalization and its Discontents Revisited
Joseph E. Stiglitz
W. W. Norton & Company
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
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Various Artists
Habibi Funk: An Eclectic Selection Of Music From The Arab World (Habibi Funk)
The five pillars of Islam
Sarfira
Director: Sudha Kongara Prasad
Starring: Akshay Kumar, Radhika Madan, Paresh Rawal
Rating: 2/5
More on Palestine-Israeli relations
Libya's Gold
UN Panel of Experts found regime secretly sold a fifth of the country's gold reserves.
The panel’s 2017 report followed a trail to West Africa where large sums of cash and gold were hidden by Abdullah Al Senussi, Qaddafi’s former intelligence chief, in 2011.
Cases filled with cash that was said to amount to $560m in 100 dollar notes, that was kept by a group of Libyans in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.
A second stash was said to have been held in Accra, Ghana, inside boxes at the local offices of an international human rights organisation based in France.
