The Strait of Hormuz has “highly likely” been swept clear of mines to allow US vessels safe transit under the so-called Project Freedom, naval experts have told The National.
But the prospect of getting large numbers of merchant ships safely through the narrow channel remains slim, as the US does not having enough forces available to deter the Iranian threat.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) navy is understood to have placed between 10 and 100 mines in the strait, each of which will be triggered by a ship’s acoustic signal, presenting a significant threat.
But at least two US-registered containers made it through the strait in the past few days, suggesting minesweepers had quietly cleared the area of the devices.
“Clearly, the US fleet was able to ensure that the ships weren't going to hit the mines, which suggests that it is highly likely the US had been able to deploy some mine-countermeasure vehicles, possibly autonomous,” said Dr Lynette Nusbacher, a former British military intelligence officer.
Tom Sharpe, once a Royal Navy commander, who has sailed warships through the strait, agreed that the most important first step for safe passage would have been to deploy remotely operated minesweepers.
“These will be drone boats that will detonate Iran’s ‘influence mines’ that are not set off not by contact, but by a ship’s magnetic or acoustic signature,” he said. “So there's a good chance that America has cleared that passage.”
Convoy approach
It remains feasible – though unlikely – that small convoys of about six container ships, accompanied by two Arleigh Burke missile destroyers alongside Apache helicopters and FA-18 fighters, could break Iran’s blockade, albeit at great risk.
The ships would take the Oman lane, with one destroyer on the inside, checking for Iranian fast boats potentially hidden in the coves of the Musandam Peninsula, and the other on the Iran side fending off missile attacks.
Using Operation Earnest Will during the Tanker Wars of the late 1980s as a guide, it would require up to eight warships to escort about 11 merchant vessels, although missile threats are much higher today. Even three carrier strike groups in the Middle East is not enough for escort duties.
“Furthermore, the loss of an Arleigh Burke, that would be the end of it, America would chicken out at the point,” said Mr Sharpe, who added that Project Freedom was “unsustainable”.
Dr Nusbacher also argued that given the time it would take a supertanker to transit the passage – between 12 and 24 hours – an escorting air-defence ship would probably have exhausted its inventory of missiles before safety was reached.
She said: “You can't just keep on shooting forever and if you make a modern warship vulnerable in a narrow strait of water, you’re going to lose it and both the US and Nato know that that’s why they're not doing it.”
She suggested the only military option to guarantee safety was to send a land force into Iran “denying the drone and anti-ship cruise missiles range of the strait – but nobody's going to do that”.
To demonstrate intent, Dr Nusbacher said, the US fleet would have to get a VLCC (very large crude carrier) through under American protection. “And given a VLCC is slow moving, this would present significant challenges,” she added.
Shipping distress
Shipping companies are also seeking greater detail on protection the US is offering before they risk sailing vessels through the strait.
“What the military think is feasible operationally might not be for a merchant ship,” said John Stawpert of the International Chamber of Shipping, that represents 80 per cent of the global industry. “No one is yet talking about convoys and before that happens we need much more dialogue with military planners. We need more detail and information on how the US proposes how practically this will work before you'll see an uptake by shipping companies.”
The Baltic and International Maritime Council, which represents shipowners and brokers, said it had received “only very limited information”.
“It is unclear whether 'Project Freedom' is sustainable in the longer run, or whether it will be a limited operation to get some of the trapped ships out,” Jakob Larsen, Bimco's chief safety and security officer, told The National.
“It is also unclear whether the Iranian threat to ships can realistically be degraded or suppressed by force, or how long it will take until the threat level changes,” but the situation had become “more tense” with the threat of attack increasing.
