Syrian rebels fire commander ahead of expected escalation of military action

Syrian rebel chief Selim Idriss is removed from his command ahead of an expected esclation of fighting

A man carries an injured child following a reported air strike by Syrian government forces on February 17, 2014 in the Hanano district of the northern Syrian city of Aleppo. The death toll in nearly three years of conflict in Syria has risen to more than 140,000 people including nearly 50,000 civilians, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said last week. Zein Al Rifai/AFP PhotoShow less

BEIRUT // Syria’s regime and rebels are likely to ratchet up military pressure on the ground after the failure of peace talks, setting the scene for a grim escalation of fighting, analysts say.

Barely a day after a second round of peace talks in Geneva broke down on Saturday, the rebel Free Syrian Army fired its military chief Selim Idriss, citing “the paralysis within the military command these past months”.

A source inside the Syrian opposition said that Mr Idriss — who was appointed to the role in December 2012 — had faced criticism for failings on the battlefield.

The timing of Mr Idriss’s replacement by another senior military commander is significant, with analysts predicting that the most likely outcome of the peace talks stalemate will be a renewed focus by both sides on military operations.

“I fear that the failure of the Geneva talks will lead to military escalation — it will probably get worse before it gets better,” said Volker Perthes, director of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

“Both sides will try to show that they can change the balance on the ground in their favour, and that they aren’t forced to negotiate out of weakness.”

Aron Lund, editor of the Carnegie Endowment’s Syria in Crisis website, echoed that position.

“Neither side seems to believe in a negotiated solution at the moment,” he said.

“Even if they want one in the longer run, they’ll both want to improve their positions first. So, more war.”

Even during the talks, there was little let-up in military operations by both sides that are estimated to have killed more than 140,000 people since the conflict began in March 2011.

Throughout the first round of discussions, held in January in Switzerland, the regime unleashed a fierce aerial assault involving the use of explosive-packed barrel bombs in the northern city of Aleppo.

And during the latest round, it began an operation to capture Yabrud, the last remaining rebel stronghold in the Qalamun region of Damascus province.

The town lies on a strategic motorway linking Damascus and the country’s third city Homs.

It is also near the border with Lebanon, and the offensive — including multiple air strikes — has already pushed hundreds of residents across the border into the Lebanese town of Arsal.

Mr Lund said scepticism about the value of negotiations could also extend to foreign nations backing the Syrian rebels, who pushed the opposition to attend.

He said rebel forces aligned with the foreign-based political opposition could now be “rewarded” with new military supplies.

“Even those states that ultimately believe in renewed talks might want to show that torpedoing the UN’s negotiations will carry a cost for Assad,” he said.

Karim Emile Bitar, a senior fellow at the Institute for International and Strategic Relations, said an upcoming visit by US President Barack Obama to Saudi Arabia “might prove decisive”.

Like Washington, Saudi Arabia backs the opposition, and has reportedly stepped up its supplies of advanced weapons to rebel forces despite US hesitation.

“Either the Saudis successfully pitch him (Obama) on another sustained military effort towards regime change in Syria, or Obama convinces the Saudis to rein in the rebels,” he said.

* AFP