Qatar's role as peace broker at risk in Syria


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DOHA // By the time warring parties in Darfur signed a peace deal in July last year, many of the players had lived at the Sheraton Hotel in Doha for more than two years.

It was the Qataris who picked up the tab for the fragmented rebel groups and their government interlocutors.

The Qatari foreign ministry oversaw months of painstaking talks.

In no small way, Doha made peace happen, recounts Ibrahim Gambari, the outgoing head of the United Nations and African Union mission in Darfur. "The Qataris personally steered this. It was a country that was willing to put resources into getting this agreement, and it cost them hundreds of millions."

The Qatari government spent much of the last decade using its economic might, charismatic leadership, and geographic position to build a reputation as an peace broker, willing to help build peace without inserting its own interests into negotiations.

But now, the crisis in Syria is reshaping Qatar's regional role in a way that begs the question if the Sudan talks were the last time Doha can play the Arab World's Oslo.

"Qatar successfully played the role of mediator, from Yemen to Darfur," said a western diplomat in Doha who declined to be named. "The last couple of years, however, Qatar has switched from mediator to actor."

That shift began in Libya, where Qatar backed the opposition to Libya's Muammar Qaddafi, and they sent funds and troops to covertly assist rebel fighters from the country's east.

But in Syria, Qatar's assistance has added complex layers to an already complicated situation.

Doha has been among the most outspoken in demanding that Syria's president, Bashar Al Assad, step down. It has pushed for strong action from the Arab League and the UN Security Council. More directly, Doha and Riyadh are reportedly helping to fund and arm opposition to the regime in Damascus.

Unlike in Libya, however, there is no international consensus on the conflict. Nor is the opposition as united as it was during Libya's uprising. Perhaps most importantly, Syria's political opposition in exile and its military opposition on the ground are not perfectly linked.

The acrimony has forced Qatar to support the uprising through its own connections and channels, security and diplomatic sources say. With various degrees of success, they say, Doha's support has primarily been directed towards Islamist groups in the opposition, political and military.

"Syria has the potential to discredit Qatar in a big way," said Michael Stephens of the Royal United Services Institute in Doha.

"Qatar thinks it's Libya all over again. But at this point, they cannot just insert themselves into the diplomatic process and appear free of an agenda."

Doha's role in Syria has now become part of a broader narrative about its perceived affinity to - and even favouritism towards - political Islam across the region.

"The Qataris are comfortable with the Muslim Brotherhood. They're comfortable with the rise of Islamists," said Shadi Hamid of the Brookings Centre in Doha. The ties, he said, are largely pragmatic rather than ideological, based on personal relationships built over years.

"After the Arab Spring, the Qataris never had the ideological or strategic threat problems that the rest of the region did, so it was easy to ride the wave."

A reputation for proximity to political Islam has gained traction with the visitors frequenting Doha these days. Earlier this month, leaders from regional affiliates of the Muslim Brotherhood gathered for a conference on Islamists hosted by the Al Jazeera Centre for Studies, a think tank linked to the state-backed television network.

The Egyptian deputy president, Khairat Al Shater, the head of Tunisia's Ennahda party, Rached Ghannouchi, and the Sudanese scholar, Hassan Turabi, graced the halls of the Sheraton and took tea between conference sessions.

Qatar's decision to build its ties with the Egyptian and Tunisian Brotherhood affiliates, both of which are now in power, is more real politik than bias, say some analysts.

"Qatar does not only have relations with Islamists, but non-Islamists as well," said Ibrahim Arafat, a visiting professor at Qatar University who has in the past advised the Amiri diwan.

"The relationship with Islamists is crystal clear, but this doesn't mean they ignore others."

Whether justifiably or not, however, Syria has pushed Qatar's reputation from neutral observer to clearly aligned actor.

"If you are a clever ruler, and I think the Qataris are truly clever, then you bet on the winning horse, and the [Syrian] people are the winning horse," said Azzam Tamimi, the head of the Institute of Islamic Political Thought in London.

"There's no point in trying to mediate between the corrupt, defunct regime and the people."

Yet analysts and diplomats worry that the Syrian opposition could further fracture, as Qatar and other donors offer support through their preferred channels.

Some Qataris also say they fear that their stance on Syria could cause future headaches and security threats. Doha joined other Gulf governments in recently warning its citizens not to travel to Lebanon, for fear of kidnap. Also this month, Qatar's RasGas was targeted by hackers suspected to be linked to Al Assad supporters.

Mr Stephens says that there is a growing fear of revenge attacks, launched by Syrians loyal to Mr Al Assad. "Qatar is very worried about taking blowback."