CAIRO // John Kerry, the US secretary of state, arrived in Cairo yesterday amid a polarised political atmosphere in Egypt, but his calls for unity are unlikely to be a powerful impetus for change, analysts said.
In meetings with members from a range of political forces, he will push for them to come to a basic agreement on the country's direction before parliamentary elections scheduled for late April, a US official said.
Yet two leading members of the opposition, Mohamed ElBaradei and Hamdeen Sabahi, said they refused to meet Mr Kerry because of Washington's call for the National Salvation Front opposition alliance to reconsider a planned boycott of the elections. The Front has said it would participate only if President Mohammed Morsi sacked his government and created an inclusive atmosphere for politics.
"He cannot make an impact on the divisiveness in Egypt," Noha Bakr, a professor of political science at the American University in Cairo, said of Mr Kerry. "Egypt's political problems can only be solved if there is a will within to come together."
As Mr Kerry arrived from Turkey, protesters torched a police station in the Suez Canal city of Port Said. The interior ministry said about 500 protesters threw stones and petrol bombs at the police station, setting it on fire, and then blocked fire engines from approaching.
And in Mansoura, a city in the Nile Delta, at least one man was killed and dozens more injured after clashes with police on Friday night.
Mr Kerry is to hold talks with Mr Morsi, as well as political parties, business leaders and civil society groups during a two-day visit that is part of a nine-nation tour.
"He is working to touch base with the government, with the military, with people involved in the new Egypt: the political leaders, NGO leaders, the business people," a US state department official said.
Mr Kerry may have more influence on the country's economic problems. Egypt has been in discussions with the International Monetary Fund, where the US has significant sway, on a US$4.8 billion (Dh17.6bn) loan. The funds are desperately needed in Egypt as unemployment inches above 13 per cent and food prices are on the rise, but the deal has been delayed because of worries from the government about public discontent with austerity measures.
The IMF loan is contingent on Egypt creating a "home-grown" economic plan that reins in spending on subsidies and increases revenue through tax hikes.
The loan would temporarily ease pressures on the government, but more importantly unlock billions more from the US, European Union and other donors who want the IMF's seal of approval on the country's economic plan before committing funds.
"It will be important for the government to make an agreement with the IMF, not only to bring in the IMF money ... but also to unlock the other money that comes from the US, the EU, from the Arab states and from private investments," a US state department official said.
In order for there to be an agreement on the IMF loan "there has to be basic political agreement among all the various players in Egypt" as well as "basic economic consensus on reforms to support the IMF deal", the official said.
Egypt has been deeply divided since November, when Mr Morsi issued a now-repealed decree expanding his powers and protecting his decisions from judiciary oversight. He also rushed through a vote on the constitution, despite broad opposition from liberals, sectarians and Coptic Christian groups.
The two-year anniversary of the uprising sparked more street battles, especially in the cities along the Suez Canal.
bhope@thenational.ae
* With additional reports from Agence-France Presse and Associated Press
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Where to buy
Limited-edition art prints of The Sofa Series: Sultani can be acquired from Reem El Mutwalli at www.reemelmutwalli.com
Managing the separation process
- Choose your nursery carefully in the first place
- Relax – and hopefully your child will follow suit
- Inform the staff in advance of your child’s likes and dislikes.
- If you need some extra time to talk to the teachers, make an appointment a few days in advance, rather than attempting to chat on your child’s first day
- The longer you stay, the more upset your child will become. As difficult as it is, walk away. Say a proper goodbye and reassure your child that you will be back
- Be patient. Your child might love it one day and hate it the next
- Stick at it. Don’t give up after the first day or week. It takes time for children to settle into a new routine.And, finally, don’t feel guilty.
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