The Iraqi government views US President Donald Trump as the “devil they know” and are more likely to favour his victory in the November 3 election, despite the strain in relations between the two countries, experts said on Monday.
Washington and Baghdad’s ties have dipped in recent months following constant attacks on US troops and the embassy by militias operating outside government control in the capital.
Mr Trump’s administration has given Baghdad a choice to either to rein in the Iran-backed militias that it blames for the attacks or shut down the embassy, which could lead diplomatic relations to falter further.
“For the Iraqi government, Trump is the devil they know; they have dealt with him, it's been four years, the military escalation with Iran brought a sense of urgency to normalise relations between the two,” Abbas Kadhim, director of the Iraq Initiative at the Atlantic Council said during a webinar hosted by the policy research institute, IRIS.
Prime Minister Mustafa Al Kadhimi, who took office in May following months of unrest led by anti-government protests, came with a blessing from the Trump administration and has received good support from them, the expert said.
Iraq is one of the few countries that is allied to both the United States and Iran, which both provided military support in a 2014-2017 campaign against ISIS.
Mr Kadhim believes that it is "safe to say that Baghdad would like to continue dealing with Trump as everything is set in place.”
Tensions between Iran and the US took a turn after Washington assassinated top Iranian military commander Qassem Suleimani on Iraqi soil in early January.
Iran-backed militias, who are still seeking revenge for those deaths, have paused attacks for now - partly thanks to the US embassy threat - but are asking Mr Al Kadhimi to make US forces leave, or say they will resume fire.
For years, US and Iran's escalating battle has been playing out in Iraq.
There will be a high probability of continuing reduction of US diplomatic engagement in Iraq, Barbara Leaf, the former US Ambassador to the UAE said.
With victory over ISIS declared in 2017, the Trump administration has squeezed Iran economically through Iraq and has pressured Baghdad to curtail the activities of militias supported by Tehran
“I would say that we should expect more for a second Trump term. The 2020 presidential race has been foreign policy content free. But the Trump administration has focused on stopping endless wars and bringing troops home, maintaining and expanding US military strains and defeating terror,” she said.
Mr Trump’s competitor, Democratic candidate Joe Biden, is less favoured in Iraq, Mr Kadhim said.
“Biden is the devil they think they know. They know him from the time when he was a senator and vice president,” he said.
He is known in Iraq for dividing the country, he continued, which is a very sensitive issue for the public.
Many Iraqi politicians believe that if Mr Biden wins then “a replicate of his attitudes towards Iraq would be seen.”
