Egypt's army chief rules out presidential run, but the choice may not be his


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CAIRO // Egypt’s military chief Gen Abdel Fattah El Sisi has ruled out a presidential run, but at the end of a day he may not have a choice.

In the almost three months since the armed forces removed Islamist president Mohammed Morsi, supported by millions of Egyptians, Gen El Sisi, 58, has built on the popularity he gained after becoming defence minister in August last year.

Egyptians have plastered tens of thousands of El Sisi posters on walls and homes across the country. Some of these proclaim him as the “lion of the nation”.

A big part of Gen El Sisi's popularity is rooted in the relief felt by many Egyptians that the army removed Mr Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood, of which the president was a member. Many opposed the Brotherhood's bid to monopolise power.
Gen El Sisi moved against Mr Morsi's government after four days of mass protests.

His popularity was highlighted on July 26, when millions again hit the streets after his request that they give him a mandate to deal with “violence and potential terrorism”.

That proved crucial when police, backed by army troops, stormed two sit-in protests held by Morsi supporters in Cairo on August 14.

The simultaneous operations killed hundreds of Morsi loyalists, but Gen El Sisi’s popularity appears not to have suffered.

Already, he is widely credited for restoring much of the prestige and aura of invincibility the military has enjoyed in the eyes of Egyptians since the 1952 coup by young army officers who later toppled the monarchy.

That coup laid the foundation for indirect military rule lasting six decades, with all of the country’s presidents, save for Mr Morsi, since having a military background.

A strong bond has been forged during those years between Egyptians and their military. As a mostly conscripted army, there is hardly a family that has not sent a son to the military, which fought four wars with Israel between 1948 and 1973.

The bond has survived among much of the public, despite the criticism the military faced in the almost 17 months it spent in power after Hosni Mubarak’s fall, and until Mr Morsi took office in June last year.

That period dented the image of the generals, who faced anti-military protests in the streets and accusations of abuse by their troops.

But after a year of Islamist rule defined by political turmoil, divisions, crime and a rapidly worsening economy, Egyptians were desperately looking for a safe pair of hands or an institution they could trust their lives with.

They had experienced that same sentiment on the eve of Mr Morsi’s inauguration on June 30 last year after the unrest that followed Mr Mubarak’s removal from power in a popular uprising.

Combined, those two periods of instability created a huge appetite for someone like Gen El Sisi, whose smile, youthful looks and energy gave him a charisma only previously enjoyed by Gamal Abdel Nasser, the president who died in 1970 after ruling Egypt for 18 years.

The state media raises parallels between the two, but comparisons with Nasser worry some Egyptians.

He was the mastermind of the 1952 coup. As president, he was lionised for nationalising the Suez Canal in 1956, negotiating the withdrawal of occupying British forces, dismantling the feudal agricultural system and introducing free education. Millions took part in his 1970 funeral.

Since his death, many have acknowledged his faults: his rule was oppressive against secular and Islamist dissidents, and the state-run system he created became riddled with corruption. But there is also nostalgia.

Gen El Sisi, however, appears determined to establish a democratic system in which freedoms are guaranteed.
He has shown no political agenda of his own and has enlisted the support of all political groups, save for the Brotherhood and its Islamist allies, and the nation's top clerics.

His faith in the future has captivated many from months before he removed Mr Morsi.

"I want to say something to you: don't ever worry about Egypt," Gen El Sisi said in April. "Egyptians can change the whole world when they want."

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Pox that threatens the Middle East's native species

Camelpox

Caused by a virus related to the one that causes human smallpox, camelpox typically causes fever, swelling of lymph nodes and skin lesions in camels aged over three, but the animal usually recovers after a month or so. Younger animals may develop a more acute form that causes internal lesions and diarrhoea, and is often fatal, especially when secondary infections result. It is found across the Middle East as well as in parts of Asia, Africa, Russia and India.

Falconpox

Falconpox can cause a variety of types of lesions, which can affect, for example, the eyelids, feet and the areas above and below the beak. It is a problem among captive falcons and is one of many types of avian pox or avipox diseases that together affect dozens of bird species across the world. Among the other forms are pigeonpox, turkeypox, starlingpox and canarypox. Avipox viruses are spread by mosquitoes and direct bird-to-bird contact.

Houbarapox

Houbarapox is, like falconpox, one of the many forms of avipox diseases. It exists in various forms, with a type that causes skin lesions being least likely to result in death. Other forms cause more severe lesions, including internal lesions, and are more likely to kill the bird, often because secondary infections develop. This summer the CVRL reported an outbreak of pox in houbaras after rains in spring led to an increase in mosquito numbers.

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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