The victory over ISIL in Raqqa has also hit the group's propaganda effort. Erik De Castro / Reuters
The victory over ISIL in Raqqa has also hit the group's propaganda effort. Erik De Castro / Reuters

World

ISIL propaganda machine hit after military reversals

The group’s flagship production has been offline for its longest period after the downfall of the ISIL stronghold of Raqqa

The National staff

December 04, 2017

The ISIL propaganda machine has been badly damaged following the downfall of Raqqa with its flagship publication offline for its longest period, the US-led coalition said Monday.

The monthly multi-language online magazine Rumiyah – which has published articles urging ISIL supporters to carry out lone wolf knife attacks in their home countries – has not been published since September after the group's former de facto capital was taken over by US-backed Syrian fighters.

Online videos posted by ISIL sympathisers rarely contain original footage with most of it made up of previously posted material, said Colonel Ryan Dillon, a spokesman for the US-led coalition against ISIL in Syria and Iraq.

The message of ISIL broadcasts has also changed from the high point of its influence when it encouraged supporters to travel to Iraq and Syria to fight, said Col. Dillon. “Now it’s more geared towards those hardcore fighters – stay, fight – and its very much military-centric as opposed to home to Utopia.”

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ISIL made Raqqa the centre of its self-styled caliphate and was the hub of its media operations, with thousands of militants travelling there to fight under the group’s flag providing linguistic expertise.

There was an “absolute dip” in propaganda output following its loss in October, although the ease of posting extremist content for anyone with access to a laptop or cell phone has meant that the propaganda has continued, albeit it at a lesser scale.

The driving out of the militants from its former strongholds has run alongside counter-propaganda efforts by the authorities in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, said Col Dillon.

Former US president Barack Obama in 2015 announced a joint US-UAE project for a new digital communications hub to counter terrorist propaganda, following an admission that the ISIL media operation had trumped efforts by its better-funded opponents.

The Sawab centre would use “direct online engagement to counter the terrorist messaging that is used to recruit foreign fighters, fundraise, and terrorise local populations,” the state department said.

The decline in ISIL propaganda efforts mirrors the decline of its military capability, with a sharp decline of airstrikes needed against the group, and the withdrawal of US troops who will not be replaced, said Col Dillon at a briefing in London. Syrian forces in Raqqa are now focused on clearing mines from homes in the city.

Having lost all of its main strongholds, the group was returning to its roots as an insurgent force with fewer than 3,000 active ISIL fighters remaining in Iraq and Syria, he said. “They are no longer a military threat, and no longer have an army.”

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”