Russia out to avenge Kosovo snub

Moscow prepares to reply to the West by recognising independence of South Ossetia and Abkazia unilaterally.

Russian soldiers on an APC as a column of armoured vehicles moves toward the town of Alagir.

MOSCOW // When Kosovo declared independence from Serbia in February - and western countries rushed to recognise the new state - Russia declared the entire process illegal, a blatant violation of international norms and complete disregard for Serbia's territorial integrity. Now, following a bloody conflict with neighbouring Georgia, Russian officials said they are prepared to do the same for the breakaway Georgian republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, recognising their independence unilaterally if necessary. "These for [South Ossetian and Abkhaz] independence are not empty words," said Sergei Markov, a Kremlin-connected political analyst and an MP with the pro-Kremlin party United Russia. Both houses of Russia's parliament are to convene for emergency sessions today to discuss the situations with South Ossetia and Abkhazia, whose citizens and self-declared governments Moscow has supported economically and morally, much to Georgia's dismay. Russian officials and separatist leaders have said that following Georgia's failed attempt to retake South Ossetia militarily, there is no possibility of the two breakaway regions existing within Georgia's borders. Sergei Mironov, the loyal speaker of Russia's upper house of parliament who ran for president in 2004 but indicated he cast his ballot for Vladimir Putin, the former Russian president and current prime minister, said last week that both houses are prepared to recognise Abkhaz and South Ossetian independence if there is the will in the republics, and "the will in the Kremlin". It is unclear, however, whether the Kremlin would go so far as to recognise their independence, regardless of whether Russian parliamentarians vote for such recognition. The two houses of the Russian parliament can pass resolutions and give recommendations, but the final say in recognising a foreign state's independence rests exclusively in the hands of the Russian president. Mr Markov, however, estimated there is a 70 per cent likelihood that Russia would recognise their independence. "If the West will recognise that [Georgian President Mikheil] Saakashvili committed war crimes and that South Ossetians have a right not to be killed, then Russia will not have to recognise [Abkhaz and South Ossetian] independence," Mr Markov said in an interview. Georgia and Russia have accused one another of ethnic cleansing and war crimes in the conflict. Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of the journal Russia in Global Affairs, said Russian recognition of the two regions is a long way off. "Russia is trying to take the same tack the West took with Kosovo, not at the end of the Kosovo scenario, but rather at the beginning, following the 1999 war," Mr Lukyanov said. Russia is unlikely to recognise unilaterally Abkhaz and South Ossetian independence, Mr Lukyanov said. "This would only be possible if several countries are willing to recognise them," which is currently unlikely, he said. Russia has consistently accused western countries of having a double standard over the fate of separatist regions. At an annual news conference at the Kremlin in February, Mr Putin, then the Russian president, said recognising Kosovo's independence would be "immoral and illegal" and that the West should be "ashamed" of double standards. "We have Abkhazia, South Ossetia ? and they say Kosovo is a special case?" Mr Putin said. "There are no particularities there, and everyone understands this perfectly." Now western officials are accusing the Kremlin of being inconsistent. "The Russian position is to not accept Kosovo's independence while supporting [South Ossetian and Abkhaz] independence," Luc van der Branda, a member of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, told independent Russian radio station Ekho Moskvy last week. "I think this is an inconsistent approach ? Now is not the time to speak of an independent Abkhazia or independent South Ossetia." Masha Lipman, a political analyst with the Carnegie Moscow Centre, said there is a certain irony in Russia's about-face, but that with the recent violence "the situation has changed." "There's no denying it," Ms Lipman said. "There is a much greater likelihood that Russia will recognise their independence, because it really does not have much to lose. It has already seen just how few allies it has after its incursion into Georgia." The Kremlin, however, has little reason to recognise the independence of the two regions immediately and limit its options, Ms Lipman said. "Neither Russia nor the West is interested in seeing Russia isolated from the international community," Ms Lipman said. "This gives hope for a compromise. As long as there is some chance for a resolution of the situation, there is no reason for the president to sign anything now that would be irreversible." @email:[e-mail]