Risk of death from Covid-19 during height of UK outbreak only slightly higher than normal, expert says

Statistical analysis shows close relation between rising chances of death from coronavirus and from all other causes

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The chance of catching and dying from Covid-19 during the height of Britain’s outbreak, even for those over 55, was only slightly higher than the usual risk of death from all other causes we face each year, a top statistician has found.

Prof David Spiegelhalter of the University of Cambridge, wrote in the British Medical Journal that, for the general population older than 55, the added risk of coronavirus equated to surviving about five extra weeks of the normal annual risk of death.

Prof Spiegelhalter's findings are based on analysis of death certificate data for England and Wales over 16 weeks, between March 7 and June 26, which began just before the UK went into lockdown on March 16.

He calculated that the death rate in this period roughly doubled for every five to six extra years of age.

The increase in the threat posed by the virus was consistent from child to old age, Prof Spiegelhalter found, which closely matched the increasing risk of dying from other causes over a lifetime.

One in 50 people aged over 90 died of Covid-19 over the period from March to June, compared with one in 2.3 million children aged between 5 and 14.

Prof Spiegelhalter said his analysis referred to averages over populations.

Although age seemed to be the overwhelmingly dominant influence on mortality, he wrote, other factors such as pre-existing medical conditions could have an effect.

Prof Spiegelhalter also stressed that his findings were based on observations of historical death rates in the population, and should not be taken as a forecast of the future risk of catching the virus and dying.

He said his analysis focused on the threat to individuals.

“There is still a responsibility to consider the potential risks an individual may cause to others,” Prof Spiegelhalter wrote.

Last month he warned that people would “have to learn to live with coronavirus”.

“We are never going to get rid of it completely,” he said.

“This is going to be one more risk – like road accidents, like terrorism – that is just going to be there and we are just going to have to learn to live with it.”