Medvedev open to second term

Statements by Dmitry Medvedev have set the country abuzz with speculation that he may seek to keep his seat in the Kremlin.

MOSCOW // When the Russian president Dmitry Medvedev last year spearheaded a law increasing the presidential term to six years, many believed he was paving the way for the return of his powerful predecessor, Vladimir Putin, for a further 12 years in office. But a flurry of initiatives and statements by Mr Medvedev over the past week has set the country abuzz with speculation that the Russian president may seek to keep his seat in the Kremlin when the next presidential elections roll around in 2012.

After 16 months in office, Mr Medvedev has yet to step out of the shadow of his mentor the prime minister, Mr Putin, who hand-picked his successor and is widely believed to be the man actually running the country, despite the fact that the president is formally his boss. However, last week Mr Medvedev published a manifesto addressed to the nation on an internet news portal in which he spelt out his vision of the country's development over the next decade and criticised, among other things, corruption and the Russian economy's over-reliance on energy exports - problems that went largely unaddressed during Mr Putin's eight years in office.

Then, addressing a group of visiting western scholars and experts on Russia on Tuesday, Mr Medvedev indicated he may run for re-election 2012, albeit only after discussing the issue with Mr Putin. "A while ago I did not even intend to stand for president," Mr Medvedev told the annual gathering, known as the Valdai Club. "But fate decreed otherwise, and this is why I do not make plans too early and do not exclude anything."

His comments followed comments by Mr Putin to the Valdai Club on Friday in which he also said he would consider running for president again, but only after consulting with Mr Medvedev. The Russian constitution gives extensive powers to the president, though since Mr Medvedev took office and appointed Mr Putin as his prime minister, the two men have openly conceded that they are managing the country essentially as a duumvirate.

Given the utter opacity surrounding Russia's ruling elite, Kremlin watchers are constantly looking for signs of a possible conflict between the two leaders and whether Mr Medvedev has accrued enough power to act independently of Mr Putin. Publicly, both men insist that they enjoy the current arrangement. Barring severe economic or political turbulence in the country, it seems all but guaranteed that either man would cruise to victory in the 2012 election.

While Mr Medvedev is steadily gaining Russians' trust, he still trails his predecessor, according to a recent poll. Twenty per cent of Russians said they trusted Mr Medvedev, up from 10 per cent in May, according to an opinion poll published this month by the respected Levada Centre. Respondents' trust in Mr Putin, meanwhile, edged up to 28 per cent in August, up from 27.5 per cent in May, according to the poll, which had a margin of error of three percentage points.

Stanislav Belkovsky, a political analyst and former Kremlin insider, said the significance of the two leaders' actual statements to the Valdai Club on the 2012 election had been exaggerated in the media and by Kremlin watchers. "Neither has committed himself one way or the other," Mr Belkovsky said. Mr Medvedev's plans laid out in his manifesto published last week, however, clearly indicate that the president intends to remain in the Kremlin for another term, Mr Belkovsky said. "It would be impossible to implement this programme in just one term."

"Because Medvedev is the legitimately elected president, Putin will have to accept this," he added. Nikolai Zlobin, the director of the Russia and Eurasia Project at the World Security Institute and a member of the Valdai Club, said Mr Medvedev's platform outlined in the article was essentially an anxious attempt and establishing a programme that could define his presidency given the meagre results so far of his drives to tackle corruption and strengthen the rule of law.

"He is definitely trying to re-establish himself as a more independent, important and influential political player," Mr Zlobin said. "For this he needs some kind of political programme, any kind of political programme." Mr Zlobin said, however, that compared with last year's Valdai Club meeting, Mr Medvedev's demeanour this week clearly showed that he has grown increasingly confident and comfortable in the Kremlin.

"He's not shy now about saying what he thinks," Mr Zlobin said. "He is much more presidential." [e-mail]