The number of people admitted to hospital or dying from Covid-19 in the UK has been slashed by thousands after ministers delayed the date for lifting restrictions, according to a study.
The modelling, completed by Warwick University and presented to the government’s scientific advisers, also showed vaccines were more effective than thought.
Modellers projected a peak of about 3,000 new hospital admissions per day if ministers went ahead with ending social distancing restrictions on June 21.
That figure has been revised down to a peak of about 1,000 per day after a four-week delay was imposed.
The worst-case projection was based on the assumption that two doses of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine provided between 85 per cent and 90 per cent protection against the Indian variant, while two doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech drug provided between 87 per cent and 91 per cent protection.
According to Public Health England data, two doses of AstraZeneca's vaccine is 92 per cent effective against severe illness, while Pfizer's vaccine is 96 per cent effective.
Prof Andrew Pollard, head of the Oxford Vaccine Group, said the PHE research was “incredibly good news for the months ahead”.
However, it is essential people receive both doses of the vaccine, because one dose provides only about 33 per cent protection.
The PHE research is based on real-world cases and raises the prospect that Prime Minister Boris Johnson can proceed with a full lifting of restrictions on July 19.
The government promised to vaccinate up to 10 million more people during the four-week period.
Separate research by Imperial College London found that case numbers continue to grow across England but the increase is being driven by younger people who are not yet vaccinated.
The R number – the number of people an infected person goes on to infect – was an estimated 1.44.
Of the 108,911 people tested for the study between May 20 and June 7, 135 were positive, about one in 670. This is a 50 per cent increase compared with the study's May 3 findings, when one in 1,000 had the virus.
Prof Paul Elliot, director of the React-1 study, said the distribution of vaccines to younger age groups was key to reducing the spread of the virus.
"We can take quite a lot of comfort from the fact that when we look in the details, it does appear that there is very, very good protection in the older ages, where virtually everyone is double vaccinated," he said.
"The government has clearly announced that they want to vaccinate all adults in the period between now and 19 July .
"That will make a very big difference and increase the total amount of population immunity."
Sholto Byrnes on Myanmar politics
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
The National selections
Al Ain
5pm: Bolereau
5.30pm: Rich And Famous
6pm: Duc De Faust
6.30pm: Al Thoura
7pm: AF Arrab
7.30pm: Al Jazi
8pm: Futoon
Jebel Ali
1.45pm: AF Kal Noor
2.15pm: Galaxy Road
2.45pm: Dark Thunder
3.15pm: Inverleigh
3.45pm: Bawaasil
4.15pm: Initial
4.45pm: Tafaakhor
Marathon results
Men:
1. Titus Ekiru(KEN) 2:06:13
2. Alphonce Simbu(TAN) 2:07:50
3. Reuben Kipyego(KEN) 2:08:25
4. Abel Kirui(KEN) 2:08:46
5. Felix Kemutai(KEN) 2:10:48
Women:
1. Judith Korir(KEN) 2:22:30
2. Eunice Chumba(BHR) 2:26:01
3. Immaculate Chemutai(UGA) 2:28:30
4. Abebech Bekele(ETH) 2:29:43
5. Aleksandra Morozova(RUS) 2:33:01
About Takalam
Date started: early 2020
Founders: Khawla Hammad and Inas Abu Shashieh
Based: Abu Dhabi
Sector: HealthTech and wellness
Number of staff: 4
Funding to date: Bootstrapped
