By-election victory in Scotland bolsters Brown

LONDON // The authority of Gordon Brown as British prime minister appeared restored yesterday - at least temporarily - after his party swept to a crucial by-election victory. Little more than a month ago, pundits were predicting defeat for the Labour Party in the Glenrothes by-election in Scotland followed by a palace revolution, led by Mr Brown's own ministers. However, the "Brown bounce" - the leadership the prime minister has shown during the global financial meltdown - appears to have thrown him a political lifeline. Now, the victory in Glenrothes has consolidated his position to an extent unthinkable even a few weeks ago. His problem now, though, is to maintain his command of the political high ground as the United Kingdom enters what many fear will be a period of deep recession. Although the Labour majority was cut from more than 10,000 to less than 7,000, the fact that Labour managed to hold on to the Fife parliamentary seat fairly comfortably was in marked contrast to the humiliation of the party's defeat in the Glasgow East by-election in the summer and the drubbing in the local elections in the spring. The Scottish National Party (SNP), the victors in Glasgow, had originally been odds-on favourite to triumph in Glenrothes, but the banking crisis turned things round dramatically in recent weeks. Mr Brown had broken with the convention that prime ministers do not campaign in by-elections by personally visiting Glenrothes twice in support of Lindsay Roy, the Labour candidate and a local headmaster. After the result was declared on Friday, Mr Brown hailed the victory as a vote of confidence in the government's handling of the economic crisis. "What I have learned from this by-election," he said, "is that people are prepared to support governments that will help people through the downturn and offer real help to people. "They are less willing to support people who have no idea about how to solve the problems we have got." The fact that he was able to take such a swipe at the SNP must have been particularly gratifying to Mr Brown and particularly galling to Alex Salmond, the SNP leader and first minister in the Scottish parliament, which his party now controls. Mr Salmond had predicted another SNP victory in Glenrothes. In the end, it was anything but, leaving Maurice Golden, the Conservative Party candidate in the by-election, to wonder aloud if "the SNP bubble has well and truly burst". Attempting to make the most of a truly poor result for his party, Mr Salmond branded Labour's victory as a triumph for "scaremongering", saying that Mr Roy had campaigned solely on the local, SNP-controlled council's plan to increase home care charges for some people. "I don't like their campaigning style," Mr Salmond said. "I think it was fear-mongering. It was, however, a successful campaign. We've got lessons to learn in terms of the tactics we employ." Mr Salmond, however, appeared to ignore the fact that many people doubted his claim that, were Scotland independent, it could have successfully rode out the worldwide economic crisis. Indeed, there were indications that people in Glenrothes who had previously voted Conservative and Liberal Democrat had abandoned these parties to back Labour because of its determination not to split up the UK, as the SNP wants. Between them, the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats scarcely mustered 2,000 votes. Neither party, however, felt the result had any long-term implications. David Cameron, the Conservative leader, said: "The real loser is the Scottish National Party and as they want to break up our country, to destroy the union that I'm passionate about, then maybe it's no bad thing that the 'Salmond bounce' has disappeared. "The Conservative Party has now established itself as the third party and that's progress for us. We've still got a long way to go." Tavish Scott, leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats, said: "Alex Salmond predicted the SNP would win - he got it spectacularly wrong. Scottish politics has changed: the honeymoon is over." Commenting on the significance of the by-election, The Times said yesterday: "There remain serious misgivings about Gordon Brown's leadership. Yet he has, through a combination of luck and judgement, won himself time and the chance to be heard. "Labour should use this to show it is willing to change. The combination of a belief in free markets, social justice and international engagement that was championed by Tony Blair remains a potent one. "The improvement in Gordon Brown's position comes from his getting on with his job rather than playing politics. He should learn from that. "The most important meaning of the Glenrothes result, however, is that it indicates that the Scottish National Party is on the defensive. It is a heartening result for all who believe in the Union." [e-mail]