EU and UK trade talks came under renewed pressure on Monday evening as transport chaos triggered by fears around a more contagious variant of the coronavirus in Britain overshadowed efforts to reach a Brexit deal.
On January 1, Britain is due to leave the EU single market and customs union. With only 10 days to go, hopes of securing an accord took a blow after another deadline passed.
EU and British negotiators remained in Brussels, with talks still at a deadlock over the right of European crew to continue fishing in Britain's rich waters, as well as concerns over fair trade rules.
Without a deal, Britain's links to the European Union end at midnight on December 31 (11:00 pm UK time) with a new tariff barrier that will sharpen the big shock of unravelling a half-century of EU membership.
A Sunday deadline set by the European Parliament, which could refuse to approve the agreement, expired without an agreement being found, leaving no time for MEPs to ratify an eventual deal before January 1.
"Political games from Westminster have wasted too much time," said German MEP Manfred Weber, who leads the conservative group in parliament. But Mr Weber also said parliament "will remain constructive partners" and that "alternative procedures are possible" -- though what they were was not yet agreed.
As long as a deal is found in the next hours or days, European sources said this could involve a provisional implementation of a pact with MEPs having their say in January.
"Broadly speaking, the EU side is of the view that the only deadline that now matters is December 31," said Mujtaba Rahman of the Eurasia Group, a consultancy.
Whatever the case, the EU has finalised interim plans to manage road and air transport for six months and fishing for a year in the event of a no deal -- but these would also require an agreement from the UK to reciprocate.
"We remain very far from an accord," warned a European diplomat, who said that some on the EU-side were weighing whether it was time to walk away.
"Negotiating through exhaustion is not very healthy," the diplomat added.
The talks in Brussels continued as more than 50 countries closed their airways to Britain, after Prime Minister Boris Johnson said a highly contagious mutation of the coronavirus was spreading in the UK.
The emergency left holiday travellers stranded and blocked goods crossing the Channel, presaging the potential effects of a failure to secure a last-minute trade deal.
France's snap decision to halt trade across the Channel forced Britain to bring forward "Operation Stack", the contingency plan drawn up to deal with anticipated freight tailbacks in the port city of Dover in the event of a no-deal Brexit.
"It's a tragedy what's happening in Britain, and this Brexit is a tragedy, we see it more and more every day," France's EU commissioner Thierry Breton told BFM Business, when asked about the new outbreak.
If Britain "had chosen to remain in the European Union... today we could have helped them," Breton argued.
Brexit supporters accused France of exploiting the crisis to try and force trade concessions.
Restriction of freight movements "appears political," tweeted the anti-EU Bruges Group think tank.
With just days before negotiators should head home for Christmas -- assuming the borders reopen -- Johnson insisted that Britain's position has not budged.
"It's vital that everybody understands that the UK has got to be able to control its own laws, completely, and also that we have got to be able to control our own fisheries," Mr Johnson told a news conference, before saying that Britain would “thrive”, even if no deal was reached.
Britain intends to assume control over its waters on January 1, but is ready to allow continued access to EU fishing fleets for a transitional period under new terms.
UK negotiator David Frost wants Britain to take back more than half the fish currently assigned under the EU quota system, under a three-year agreement.
The European side insists the UK accept getting back only a quarter of the fish quota -- and that the transition period should last six years.
The biog
Favourite book: Animal Farm by George Orwell
Favourite music: Classical
Hobbies: Reading and writing
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Favourite book: ‘The Art of Learning’ by Josh Waitzkin
Favourite film: Marvel movies
Favourite parkour spot in Dubai: Residence towers in Jumeirah Beach Residence
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
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If you go...
Etihad Airways flies from Abu Dhabi to Kuala Lumpur, from about Dh3,600. Air Asia currently flies from Kuala Lumpur to Terengganu, with Berjaya Hotels & Resorts planning to launch direct chartered flights to Redang Island in the near future. Rooms at The Taaras Beach and Spa Resort start from 680RM (Dh597).
Sholto Byrnes on Myanmar politics
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, second leg
Real Madrid (2) v Bayern Munich (1)
Where: Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid
When: 10.45pm, Tuesday
Watch Live: beIN Sports HD
Electric scooters: some rules to remember
- Riders must be 14-years-old or over
- Wear a protective helmet
- Park the electric scooter in designated parking lots (if any)
- Do not leave electric scooter in locations that obstruct traffic or pedestrians
- Solo riders only, no passengers allowed
- Do not drive outside designated lanes