The missile strike on Poland is a potential repeat of a similar incident when a Syrian air defence weapon struck Cyprus after it was fired at Israeli jet fighters, security experts told The National.
But Polish security sources have also suggested that Russian mission planners may have entered the wrong GPS co-ordinates for the missile, which would have sent it just inside Poland, very close to the village struck.
Debris, possibly from a Ukrainian S-300 air defence missile, was found at Przewodow when it came down with its warhead still intact after failing to strike the incoming cruise missile.
The event is not dissimilar to an incident in 2019 when Syrian air defences fired surface-to-air missiles at an incoming Israeli air force attack.
One of the S-200 weapons, which has a range of 300km, missed and continued flying until it struck a mountainside 20km north of Nicosia, the capital of Cyprus.
“The available evidence points to this being a Ukrainian S-300 air defence missile fired close to the border at incoming Russian cruise but it has not detonated and the warhead unfortunately landed in Poland,” said Tom Bullock, an expert at the Atreides intelligence company. “These things have to come down, and Syrian SAMs did land in Cyprus following Israeli attacks.”
The incident happened 60km north of the western Ukraine city of Lviv, which has has strong missile air defences after previous attacks. The S-300 could have launched from Lviv aimed at the cruise missile to the north, missed and come down on Przewodow, killing the two civilians.
But there is also be another explanation, Polish security sources told The National.
Russia fired an estimated 100 cruise missiles at Ukraine on Tuesday, most probably air launched by bombers in Russian airspace.
The missiles were a package of Kh-101, Kh-55 and Kalibr with ranges varying from 1,500km to 2,500km carrying 500kg warheads.
Intelligence analysis suggests that the global positioning satellite [GPS] co-ordinates may have been incorrectly entered, conflating Kyiv and Lviv.
“Central Kyiv has the co-ordinates of 50.4501° N, 30.5234°E and central Lviv’s are 49.8429° N, 24.0311° E,” the source told The National. “Our co-ordinates for where the missile landed are 50.4501° N, 24.0311° E, just seven kilometres east of Przewodow. Therefore it is possible the incompetent Russian planners mixed up the co-ordinates, entering Kyiv’s northings and Lviv’s eastings into their guidance system.”
Another theory is that the harsh sanctions against Russia could have led to their depleted cruise missile inventory using defective or old computer microchips for guidance.
Nuclear weapon expert Hamish de Breton Gordon said that whatever the cause, the incident demonstrated that the conflict meant that “we are a miscalculation or misjudgement away from a potential disaster”.
“The bottom line is if Russia had not fired 100 cruise missiles on Ukraine yesterday we wouldn't be talking about two dead people in Poland,” he added.
He also suggested that Nato would now be refining its response if it was found Russia was resposnible for the attack, potentially invoking Article 5 of the alliance’s collective defence, that an attack on one is an attack on all.
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
Tonight's Chat on The National
Tonight's Chat is a series of online conversations on The National. The series features a diverse range of celebrities, politicians and business leaders from around the Arab world.
Tonight’s Chat host Ricardo Karam is a renowned author and broadcaster who has previously interviewed Bill Gates, Carlos Ghosn, Andre Agassi and the late Zaha Hadid, among others.
Intellectually curious and thought-provoking, Tonight’s Chat moves the conversation forward.
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It's up to you to go green
Nils El Accad, chief executive and owner of Organic Foods and Café, says going green is about “lifestyle and attitude” rather than a “money change”; people need to plan ahead to fill water bottles in advance and take their own bags to the supermarket, he says.
“People always want someone else to do the work; it doesn’t work like that,” he adds. “The first step: you have to consciously make that decision and change.”
When he gets a takeaway, says Mr El Accad, he takes his own glass jars instead of accepting disposable aluminium containers, paper napkins and plastic tubs, cutlery and bags from restaurants.
He also plants his own crops and herbs at home and at the Sheikh Zayed store, from basil and rosemary to beans, squashes and papayas. “If you’re going to water anything, better it be tomatoes and cucumbers, something edible, than grass,” he says.
“All this throwaway plastic - cups, bottles, forks - has to go first,” says Mr El Accad, who has banned all disposable straws, whether plastic or even paper, from the café chain.
One of the latest changes he has implemented at his stores is to offer refills of liquid laundry detergent, to save plastic. The two brands Organic Foods stocks, Organic Larder and Sonnett, are both “triple-certified - you could eat the product”.
The Organic Larder detergent will soon be delivered in 200-litre metal oil drums before being decanted into 20-litre containers in-store.
Customers can refill their bottles at least 30 times before they start to degrade, he says. Organic Larder costs Dh35.75 for one litre and Dh62 for 2.75 litres and refills will cost 15 to 20 per cent less, Mr El Accad says.
But while there are savings to be had, going green tends to come with upfront costs and extra work and planning. Are we ready to refill bottles rather than throw them away? “You have to change,” says Mr El Accad. “I can only make it available.”
