'Slow-acting' sanctions yet to turn Russian elites against Putin, security analysts say

EU policymakers told economic measures against Moscow will eventually become more potent

People walk across Red Square by the Kremlin and St Basil's Cathedral in Moscow. Reuters

Sanctions on Russian elites have yet to turn them against the Kremlin, European policymakers have been told.

The EU's in-house security analysts said the “slow-acting” sanctions had caused an economic downturn but had little political effect so far.

However, the sanctions linked to the war in Ukraine will gradually become more potent and permanently reduce Russia's living standards, they said.

EU countries have passed eight rounds of sanctions since Russia invaded Ukraine, restricting trade and transport, weakening Russian banks and banning the majority of oil imports.

More than 1,200 people are subject to the EU's sanctions, including President Vladimir Putin and other top politicians, as well as relatives, oligarchs, military chiefs and propagandists in the Kremlin's inner circle.

The stated aims are to punish Russia's elites for supporting the war and persuade them to call off the invasion.

However, a briefing by the EU's Institute for Security Studies, which advises European policymakers, said there was little sign of elites demanding a change of course.

There have been no defections from key positions in the government, and the few oligarchs who signalled dissent in the early stages of the war have fallen silent, the analysts said.

Leaders of the EU have agreed on eight packages of sanctions on Russia since it invaded Ukraine. EPA

Billionaire Oleg Tinkov said he was forced to sell his bank after condemning what he called a massacre. Former Chelsea football owner Roman Abramovich offered to help broker peace talks but was criticised for failing to condemn Mr Putin.

“Among Russia’s top elites, no discernible cleavages or alternative power centres have emerged,” authors Clara Portela and Janis Kluge wrote in the eight-page EU report entitled Slow-Acting Tools.

“As regards the political effects, there are few signs of sanctions-induced contestation of the Kremlin’s policies among key elites or the population at large.”

The analysts did not say sanctions were ineffective. The Russian economy is shrinking, oil and gas revenue has dropped and a swift recovery is unlikely, they said.

“Economic sanctions have caused a severe economic crisis in Russia,” they wrote.

“Sanctions will permanently impair Russia’s economic and technological potential and lead to a long-lasting decline in living standards among the population, while reducing the economic resources available to the elites.”

Ukraine conflict — in pictures

Smoke rises on the outskirts of the city during a Russian missile attack in Kyiv. Reuters

Workers surround the Monument to the Heroes of the Heavenly Hundred with sandbags against damage from shelling in Mykolaiv. EPA

Russian President Vladimir Putin welcomes Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev for talks before a meeting between the Russian president and the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan in the Black Sea resort city of Sochi, Russia. AFP

People take water from a water pump in Kyiv. EPA

A woman walks past a damaged building in the town of Nova Kakhovka. Reuters

A woman outside her home, which was destroyed during battles at the start of the conflict, in Yahidne, Chernihiv. Getty Images

People shelter inside a subway station during a Russian missile attack in Kyiv. Reuters

Firefighters at the site of a drone attack in Kyiv, Ukraine. AP

A woman walks past the site of a Russian missile strike in the southern Ukrainian city of Mykolaiv. Reuters

Rescuer workers at a building destroyed in an attack in Mykolaiv. Reuters

Parts of a drone lie on a street in Kyiv. Reuters

A drone flies over the Ukrainian capital during an attack. AFP

Ukrainian servicemen tow a captured Russian armoured vehicle in Rudneve village, Kharkiv. EPA

A partially destroyed residential building in Saltivka, in Kharkiv. AP

Ukrainian servicemen fire a captured Russian howitzer on a front line near Kupyansk city, Kharkiv. EPA

Ukrainian servicemen near the recently retaken town of Lyman in Donetsk region. AFP

An officer from a Ukrainian national police emergency demining team prepares to detonate collected anti-tank mines and explosives near Lyman, in the Donetsk region. AFP

A boy playing on a destroyed Russian tank on display in Kyiv. AFP

A young couple hiding underground during an air alert in Zaporizhzhia. AFP

Ukrainian firefighters looking for survivors after a strike in Zaporizhzhia. AFP

Workers fix a banner reading 'Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson - Russia!' to the State Historical Museum near Red Square in Moscow. AFP

Residents try to cross a destroyed bridge in the Kharkiv region of Ukraine. AFP

Alyona Kishinskaya helps to clean up a shop as it prepares to reopen in Balakiya, Ukraine, after a six-month Russian occupation. Getty Images

Alla, 12, has a swinging time in Balakiya, Ukraine, as life goes on despite the war. Getty Images

Ukrainian flags in the town square in Balakiya. Getty Images

A destroyed Russian command centre in Izium, Ukraine. Getty Images

In what may be a final farewell, young Russian recruits - escorted by their wives - walk to a train station in Volgograd before being sent to war in Ukraine. AP

Russian recruits board the train to Ukraine in Volgograd. AP

Ukrainian soliders drive a tank at the recently retaken eastern side of the Oskil River in Kharkiv region, Ukraine. AFP

Volunteers pass boxes of food aid on a destroyed bridge over the Oskil River. AFP

Ukrainian soliders rest on an armoured personnel carrier. AFP

A sign warns of landmines in Izyum, eastern Ukraine. AFP

This crater was left after a missile strike in the Donetsk region of Ukraine. AFP

They also suggested that sanctions could be worthwhile to demonstrate the EU's commitment to international norms even if they did not change the Kremlin's mind.

However, policymakers were told that Russia had enjoyed some success since 2014, when it was hit with sanctions over the annexation of Crimea, in building resistance to economic pressure.

Analysts said Russia entered the war in a relatively favourable financial position, meaning a budget crunch is not expected for a year or two. There are alternatives to the Swift payment system that key Russian banks can no longer use.

The general population has felt some effects but the economic downturn “is taking time to affect the average citizen”, the briefing said.

The EU passed its four first waves of sanctions in record time after Russia invaded, but divisions subsequently emerged over whether to hit the Russian energy sector.

But key developments in the war, such as the discovery of civilian deaths in Bucha and the purported annexation of four regions of Ukraine, pushed the EU into tightening sanctions.