Sergei Surovikin: new Russian campaign could turn his focus to northern Ukraine

Veteran of Syria campaign could be ordered to plan new strategy for the campaign

Gen Sergei Surovikin, Russia's first overall commander in Ukraine. He could be given the task of launching a northern offensive on Kyiv, analysts have said. Photo: Vitaliy Pikov
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Russia’s first general in overall command of the Ukraine war could be tempted to co-ordinate a new offensive on the northern front, a leading analyst has told The National.

President Vladimir Putin is understood to have given Gen Sergei Surovikin total control of the fighting to reverse the losses Russia has suffered from Ukraine’s counter-offensive.

The Syria war veteran will also look to urgently reorganise the battered Russian forces and decide where to use elements of the 300,000 new recruits Mr Putin has ordered to be mobilised.

A shift in focus of the war that has raged since February with fluctuating fortunes is not ruled out by those who follow the events closely.

“From what I understand talking to people, this remains a possibility, maybe not an immediate possibility,” said Orysia Lutsevych, the Ukraine expert at Chatham House. “There could be a northern front.

"If they plan to open another front, that would require co-ordination of all the military branches that this newly appointed general could deliver for Putin.”

With Russian forces stalled in Donbas and the south, the northern offensive might also be a feint or diversionary tactic to draw Ukrainian forces away from key areas.

While the main thrust of Russia’s assault was on Kyiv when it invaded on February 24, the northern campaign ended in defeat and retreat after Ukraine was able to destroy large numbers of personnel and equipment.

But after nearly eight months of campaigning, the Russians are likely to have learnt how to conduct combined arms modern warfare, co-ordinating air strikes, artillery and armoured brigades.

With his experience from Syria, where he oversaw the destruction of Aleppo in 2016, Gen Surovikin, 55, who also led Moscow’s air force and rocket troops, might be considered the general most likely to succeed in a push on Kyiv.

A significant breakthrough in the north would not only be welcomed in Moscow, restoring Mr Putin’s authority, but would also take significant pressure off Russian forces in the south and east of Ukraine who have suffered losses in personnel and territory.

Gen Surovikin will be well versed in the modern warfare evolving in Ukraine, being the main strategist responsible for Russian forces “making genuine headway” against two Donbas cities captured in early summer, western sources say.

“Russia has made some significant command changes in recent weeks, notably General of the Army Sergei Surovikin, who has taken over command of the Southern Group of Forces,” a western official told a media briefing in July.

“It is unclear whether it’s his influence that has led recent successes around Lysychansk, but certainly there’s been better co-operation among the groups of forces on the Russian side than we saw in the earlier phases of the war.”

Other analysts believe that having a single figure in change will mean he can direct Russia’s diminishing military resources where they could have the greatest effect.

“With the declining stock of weapons, such as Iskander precision missiles, he can specify deliberate targets for attack,” said Sam Cranny-Evans of the Rusi think tank. “It has been surprising that from the beginning that Russian forces weren’t under a single command co-ordinating it all.”

Former Brigadier Ben Barry, a Russia military analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said he was surprised there had been no “joint theatre headquarters” that would clear up “problems and co-ordination”.

“We've been through several commanders so it's unclear if this one will be any more successful than the other,” he said.

He suggested that, with tension rising against the war and in particular the mobilisation of 300,000 men, Gen Surovikin could be used as a scapegoat if the campaign went wrong.

The general’s appointment was welcomed by Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of the Wagner private military company and a recent critic of the military leadership.

“Surovikin is the most able commander in the Russian army,” he said, describing the officer as a “legendary figure born to serve his motherland faithfully”.

The general was known to be “ruthless” in implementing policy, according to the Jamestown Foundation, a group of defence experts in the US.

“Surovikin made a stellar career in the top echelons of the General Staff and Defence Ministry after 2008, during the radical military reform that required ruthlessness,” it wrote in a report. It said he had a “readiness to vigorously execute any orders”.

If the officer was ordered to conduct a northern offensive, he is one of the best qualified for the operation who remains alive after 14 Russian generals have been killed in Ukraine.

But Kyiv’s defences, equipment and its army’s fighting skills have improved dramatically since February.

Updated: October 10, 2022, 4:05 PM