Germany on Thursday declared a “gas crisis” and moved to the penultimate phase of its emergency energy plans after Russia curbed supplies.
The “state of alarm” invoked by Economy Minister Robert Habeck will involve what he called a bitter move to re-open coal plants that were supposed to be consigned to history.
He called on the public to save energy after gas imports through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline from Russia were lowered by 60 per cent, raising doubts over whether storage tanks would contain enough gas for the country during winter.
He said consumers could face a further price squeeze as Russia’s four-month attack on Ukraine continues. Market prices increased by as much as 5.6 per cent after his announcement.
“It’s the summer after a long pandemic. People want to enjoy their time outside ... without thinking about political tribulations,” Mr Habeck said on Thursday. “But winter will come.”
Russian gas company Gazprom last week announced a reduction in Nord Stream’s capacity owing to what it said were technical issues with compressor units.
But this was regarded in Berlin as a pretext to squeeze Germany’s gas supplies, following similar moves against countries including Poland, Bulgaria and Finland.
The squeeze on supplies through Nord Stream, which links Russia to Germany through the Baltic Sea, has also affected onward exports to France, Austria and the Czech Republic. The Nord Stream 2 pipeline project was cancelled in February.
Western powers say Russia is using its rich energy reserves to blackmail European neighbours who have imposed sanctions on Moscow over the war in Ukraine, while continuing to buy Russian oil and gas.
Germany began the first stage of its contingency plans in March but said on Thursday that the situation had worsened. The third and final phase would allow the government to step in and ration energy supplies.
As well as reviving coal plants, the government will look to strike deals to buy back unused gas to incentivise companies to save energy.
But the government has so far ruled out as technically unviable any move to extend the life of Germany’s last three nuclear reactors beyond the December deadline to turn them off. Coal power is supposed to be phased out by 2030.
“Even if we can’t feel it yet, we’re in a gas crisis,” said Mr Habeck.
He said the public should not be lulled into a false sense of security by the fact gas storage tanks were currently reasonably full.
“Gas is a scarce resource from now on. Prices are already high, and we have to prepare ourselves for further increases," he said.
Ministers in Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government blame their predecessors for leaving Germany exposed by relying too much on Russian energy over the years.
Germany has said it can phase out its use of Russian coal and oil by the end of the year, but will continue to need its gas until 2024, while it finds alternative suppliers and builds the necessary infrastructure to import gas.
The EU is in a similar position after agreeing on a coal ban and a partial oil embargo in its fifth and sixth rounds of sanctions, but there is limited appetite for moving into gas.
German regulators say gas tanks are about 58 per cent full, higher than this time last year. But the aim of having them 90 per cent full by December cannot be attained without further measures, the Economy Ministry said.
In seven scenarios modelled by regulators, three would leave Germany short of gas during the winter, while another three would leave tanks empty next spring. Targets would be met in only one scenario.
The better outcomes would involve reducing gas use by about 20 per cent starting from July, the arrival of liquid gas imports starting from January, and a possible reduction of onward exports.
Some companies have held talks with the authorities over how energy could be rationed if Russian supplies dry up.
CREW
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Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
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Conflict, drought, famine
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
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Band Aid
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