As the far right gathers momentum in the run-up to the French presidential elections, a question on countless lips wonders what France would look like if Marine Le Pen replaced Emmanuel Macron at the Elysee Palace.
Having conducted a long campaign to “de-demonise” her image, Ms Le Pen finds herself within striking distance of becoming France’s first female president.
What was a 12 point gap between her and Macron has narrowed dramatically as she toured towns and villages, casting herself as the defender of the “little ones” against Macron’s reputation as the “president of the rich.”
Mr Macron voiced regret on Friday for starting campaigning late as opinion polls now showed him holding a slender lead.
Bloomberg’s polling average calculated on April 8 showed Macron ahead by just 3.5 points in the first round.
As the country prepares for the first round of French election voting on Sunday and a decider two weeks later, a Le Pen victory is a prospect that inspires emotions ranging from excitement to trepidation.
France is accustomed to political leaders of the left, right and centre but traditionally presents a united front against extremism. And to opponents, even a detoxified Marine Le Pen is an extremist.
Reacting to what one pundit called the “democratic accident” of a Le Pen victory, financial markets are nervous. Political enemies have stepped up their attacks on her.
Valerie Pecresse, the centre-right candidate trailing far behind the front-runners in opinion polls, calls her a “demagogue”. At a rally in Normandy, west of Paris, one of the president’s closest colleagues, his Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire, mocked her passion for Bengal cats.
“Let's not be fooled,” he said. “She is the heiress of the most radical party [in France] and has always preached hatred. Now she’s turned into a kindly cat breeder?”
His vitriol reflects unease in the Macron camp at Ms Le Pen’s success in deflecting attention from her anti-immigration obsession, dwelling instead on the rocketing cost of living. Her mission is eased by the presence among candidates of Eric Zemmour, a polemicist whose rabid Islamophobia makes her seem moderate by comparison.
Despite a low-key campaign marked by his absence as he concentrates on the war in Ukraine, Mr Macron remains narrowly favoured to win a second term.
But opinion polls trace Ms Le Pen’s gradual rise. Only between three and six points separate them, suggesting a run-off to repeat the 2017 presidential contest.
Then, Mr Macron was a compellingly fresh campaigner, a dynamic young centrist drawing support from left and right. He trounced Ms Le Pen in a televised debate and won handsomely with two thirds of the vote.
A similar outcome appears unlikely, polls indicating a margin of only six percentage points in a second round between the two.
The left, especially, is disenchanted with Mr Macron, now 44, seeing him as a “president for the rich”. He suffers from perceptions of arrogance and detachment from the struggles of ordinary people.
Crucially, he can no longer rely fully on the French tradition of voters forming a “republican front” to keep the far right out of office. Even some supporters of the far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon will switch to Ms Le Pen if he is eliminated, because she also prioritises working-class grievances.
Without forgetting her core themes on immigration, security and Islamism, Ms Le Pen has worked relentlessly to gain mainstream support.
Opponents insist she is fundamentally unchanged at heart and remains a xenophobic, anti-Muslim menace.
But her manifesto focuses on the everyday concerns of millions. She promises retirement at 60 and help for low-income groups, countering the effect of higher childbirth rates among immigrants by restricting the most generous aid to French couples who have three or more children.
If some observers are alarmed by her nationalism, putting French people ahead of foreigners in jobs and social housing, her appeal to a sizeable minority electorate is undiminished.
She no longer aims to withdraw France from the eurozone or to hold a referendum on a Frexit, promising instead to seek a new “Alliance of European nations”, seen by the Macron camp as a “sneaking out of the EU”.
Supporters seem undeterred by her past ties to the Russian President Vladimir Putin. More concerned with domestic issues, they trust her to cut taxes and energy prices despite the president’s aides warning that her programme is devoid of credible funding.
Le Pen's flag-waving France
Opponents are horrified. “What will France look like under Le Pen?” asked Thomas Guenole, a political scientist, academic and essayist. “Think Hungary’s Orban, America’s Trump, Russia’s Putin.”
He told The National that Ms Le Pen would impose flag-waving, protectionist nationalism together with draconian immigration curbs and reinforced law enforcement powers, effectively creating a “full-on police state”. Becoming French, he said, would become virtually impossible for most foreigners.
Others acknowledge her ability to distance herself from the stigma of extremism that marginalises Mr Zemmour and previously hampered her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, who helped create her party but was later expelled from it by her.
Cecile Alduy, the author of a new book The Language of Zemmour and a professor attached to California’s Stanford University and Sciences-Po in Paris, told state-owned France 24 television that this allows her to appear “calm, composed and less divisive”.
To win on April 24, Ms Le Pen would need help from those who vote on Sunday for others, including Mr Zemmour, whose Reconquest movement she described in February as a melting pot of “traditionalist Catholics, pagans and a few Nazis”. If she succeeds, she will hope for a “victory bounce” in parliamentary elections to give her a working majority. Now 53, she has said she will not stand again if defeated.
Watch: French presidential election frontrunners
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
Email sent to Uber team from chief executive Dara Khosrowshahi
From: Dara
To: Team@
Date: March 25, 2019 at 11:45pm PT
Subj: Accelerating in the Middle East
Five years ago, Uber launched in the Middle East. It was the start of an incredible journey, with millions of riders and drivers finding new ways to move and work in a dynamic region that’s become so important to Uber. Now Pakistan is one of our fastest-growing markets in the world, women are driving with Uber across Saudi Arabia, and we chose Cairo to launch our first Uber Bus product late last year.
Today we are taking the next step in this journey—well, it’s more like a leap, and a big one: in a few minutes, we’ll announce that we’ve agreed to acquire Careem. Importantly, we intend to operate Careem independently, under the leadership of co-founder and current CEO Mudassir Sheikha. I’ve gotten to know both co-founders, Mudassir and Magnus Olsson, and what they have built is truly extraordinary. They are first-class entrepreneurs who share our platform vision and, like us, have launched a wide range of products—from digital payments to food delivery—to serve consumers.
I expect many of you will ask how we arrived at this structure, meaning allowing Careem to maintain an independent brand and operate separately. After careful consideration, we decided that this framework has the advantage of letting us build new products and try new ideas across not one, but two, strong brands, with strong operators within each. Over time, by integrating parts of our networks, we can operate more efficiently, achieve even lower wait times, expand new products like high-capacity vehicles and payments, and quicken the already remarkable pace of innovation in the region.
This acquisition is subject to regulatory approval in various countries, which we don’t expect before Q1 2020. Until then, nothing changes. And since both companies will continue to largely operate separately after the acquisition, very little will change in either teams’ day-to-day operations post-close. Today’s news is a testament to the incredible business our team has worked so hard to build.
It’s a great day for the Middle East, for the region’s thriving tech sector, for Careem, and for Uber.
Uber on,
Dara
Business Insights
- Canada and Mexico are significant energy suppliers to the US, providing the majority of oil and natural gas imports
- The introduction of tariffs could hinder the US's clean energy initiatives by raising input costs for materials like nickel
- US domestic suppliers might benefit from higher prices, but overall oil consumption is expected to decrease due to elevated costs
Scoreline
Australia 2-1 Thailand
Australia: Juric 69', Leckie 86'
Thailand: Pokklaw 82'
Yahya Al Ghassani's bio
Date of birth: April 18, 1998
Playing position: Winger
Clubs: 2015-2017 – Al Ahli Dubai; March-June 2018 – Paris FC; August – Al Wahda
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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UAE players with central contracts
Rohan Mustafa, Ashfaq Ahmed, Chirag Suri, Rameez Shahzad, Shaiman Anwar, Adnan Mufti, Mohammed Usman, Ghulam Shabbir, Ahmed Raza, Qadeer Ahmed, Amir Hayat, Mohammed Naveed and Imran Haider.
Manchester City (0) v Liverpool (3)
Uefa Champions League, quarter-final, second leg
Where: Etihad Stadium
When: Tuesday, 10.45pm
Live on beIN Sports HD
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Gulf Under 19s final
Dubai College A 50-12 Dubai College B
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Citadel: Honey Bunny first episode
Directors: Raj & DK
Stars: Varun Dhawan, Samantha Ruth Prabhu, Kashvi Majmundar, Kay Kay Menon
Rating: 4/5
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
more from Janine di Giovanni
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
Tentative schedule of 2017/18 Ashes series
1st Test November 23-27, The Gabba, Brisbane
2nd Test December 2-6, Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
3rd Test Dcember 14-18, Waca, Perth
4th Test December 26-30, Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne
5th Test January 4-8, Sydney Cricket Ground, Sydney
World Cricket League Division 2
In Windhoek, Namibia - Top two teams qualify for the World Cup Qualifier in Zimbabwe, which starts on March 4.
UAE fixtures
Thursday February 8, v Kenya; Friday February 9, v Canada; Sunday February 11, v Nepal; Monday February 12, v Oman; Wednesday February 14, v Namibia; Thursday February 15, final
Top investing tips for UAE residents in 2021
Build an emergency fund: Make sure you have enough cash to cover six months of expenses as a buffer against unexpected problems before you begin investing, advises Steve Cronin, the founder of DeadSimpleSaving.com.
Think long-term: When you invest, you need to have a long-term mindset, so don’t worry about momentary ups and downs in the stock market.
Invest worldwide: Diversify your investments globally, ideally by way of a global stock index fund.
Is your money tied up: Avoid anything where you cannot get your money back in full within a month at any time without any penalty.
Skip past the promises: “If an investment product is offering more than 10 per cent return per year, it is either extremely risky or a scam,” Mr Cronin says.
Choose plans with low fees: Make sure that any funds you buy do not charge more than 1 per cent in fees, Mr Cronin says. “If you invest by yourself, you can easily stay below this figure.” Managed funds and commissionable investments often come with higher fees.
Be sceptical about recommendations: If someone suggests an investment to you, ask if they stand to gain, advises Mr Cronin. “If they are receiving commission, they are unlikely to recommend an investment that’s best for you.”
Get financially independent: Mr Cronin advises UAE residents to pursue financial independence. Start with a Google search and improve your knowledge via expat investing websites or Facebook groups such as SimplyFI.
MATCH INFO
Arsenal 1 (Aubameyang 12’) Liverpool 1 (Minamino 73’)
Arsenal win 5-4 on penalties
Man of the Match: Ainsley Maitland-Niles (Arsenal)
MATCH INFO
Norwich City 0 Southampton 3 (Ings 49', Armstrong 54', Redmond 79')
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Sam Smith
Where: du Arena, Abu Dhabi
When: Saturday November 24
Rating: 4/5
