How Marine Le Pen French election win would change France


Colin Randall
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As the far right gathers momentum in the run-up to the French presidential elections, a question on countless lips wonders what France would look like if Marine Le Pen replaced Emmanuel Macron at the Elysee Palace.

Having conducted a long campaign to “de-demonise” her image, Ms Le Pen finds herself within striking distance of becoming France’s first female president.

What was a 12 point gap between her and Macron has narrowed dramatically as she toured towns and villages, casting herself as the defender of the “little ones” against Macron’s reputation as the “president of the rich.”

Mr Macron voiced regret on Friday for starting campaigning late as opinion polls now showed him holding a slender lead.

Bloomberg’s polling average calculated on April 8 showed Macron ahead by just 3.5 points in the first round.

Supporters wave the national flags as Marine Le Pen gives a speech during a campaign rally in Stiring-Wendel. AFP
Supporters wave the national flags as Marine Le Pen gives a speech during a campaign rally in Stiring-Wendel. AFP

As the country prepares for the first round of French election voting on Sunday and a decider two weeks later, a Le Pen victory is a prospect that inspires emotions ranging from excitement to trepidation.

France is accustomed to political leaders of the left, right and centre but traditionally presents a united front against extremism. And to opponents, even a detoxified Marine Le Pen is an extremist.

Reacting to what one pundit called the “democratic accident” of a Le Pen victory, financial markets are nervous. Political enemies have stepped up their attacks on her.

Valerie Pecresse, the centre-right candidate trailing far behind the front-runners in opinion polls, calls her a “demagogue”. At a rally in Normandy, west of Paris, one of the president’s closest colleagues, his Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire, mocked her passion for Bengal cats.

“Let's not be fooled,” he said. “She is the heiress of the most radical party [in France] and has always preached hatred. Now she’s turned into a kindly cat breeder?”

His vitriol reflects unease in the Macron camp at Ms Le Pen’s success in deflecting attention from her anti-immigration obsession, dwelling instead on the rocketing cost of living. Her mission is eased by the presence among candidates of Eric Zemmour, a polemicist whose rabid Islamophobia makes her seem moderate by comparison.

Despite a low-key campaign marked by his absence as he concentrates on the war in Ukraine, Mr Macron remains narrowly favoured to win a second term.

But opinion polls trace Ms Le Pen’s gradual rise. Only between three and six points separate them, suggesting a run-off to repeat the 2017 presidential contest.

Then, Mr Macron was a compellingly fresh campaigner, a dynamic young centrist drawing support from left and right. He trounced Ms Le Pen in a televised debate and won handsomely with two thirds of the vote.

A similar outcome appears unlikely, polls indicating a margin of only six percentage points in a second round between the two.

The left, especially, is disenchanted with Mr Macron, now 44, seeing him as a “president for the rich”. He suffers from perceptions of arrogance and detachment from the struggles of ordinary people.

Crucially, he can no longer rely fully on the French tradition of voters forming a “republican front” to keep the far right out of office. Even some supporters of the far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon will switch to Ms Le Pen if he is eliminated, because she also prioritises working-class grievances.

Without forgetting her core themes on immigration, security and Islamism, Ms Le Pen has worked relentlessly to gain mainstream support.

Opponents insist she is fundamentally unchanged at heart and remains a xenophobic, anti-Muslim menace.

But her manifesto focuses on the everyday concerns of millions. She promises retirement at 60 and help for low-income groups, countering the effect of higher childbirth rates among immigrants by restricting the most generous aid to French couples who have three or more children.

If some observers are alarmed by her nationalism, putting French people ahead of foreigners in jobs and social housing, her appeal to a sizeable minority electorate is undiminished.

She no longer aims to withdraw France from the eurozone or to hold a referendum on a Frexit, promising instead to seek a new “Alliance of European nations”, seen by the Macron camp as a “sneaking out of the EU”.

Supporters seem undeterred by her past ties to the Russian President Vladimir Putin. More concerned with domestic issues, they trust her to cut taxes and energy prices despite the president’s aides warning that her programme is devoid of credible funding.

Le Pen's flag-waving France

Opponents are horrified. “What will France look like under Le Pen?” asked Thomas Guenole, a political scientist, academic and essayist. “Think Hungary’s Orban, America’s Trump, Russia’s Putin.”

He told The National that Ms Le Pen would impose flag-waving, protectionist nationalism together with draconian immigration curbs and reinforced law enforcement powers, effectively creating a “full-on police state”. Becoming French, he said, would become virtually impossible for most foreigners.

Others acknowledge her ability to distance herself from the stigma of extremism that marginalises Mr Zemmour and previously hampered her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, who helped create her party but was later expelled from it by her.

Cecile Alduy, the author of a new book The Language of Zemmour and a professor attached to California’s Stanford University and Sciences-Po in Paris, told state-owned France 24 television that this allows her to appear “calm, composed and less divisive”.

To win on April 24, Ms Le Pen would need help from those who vote on Sunday for others, including Mr Zemmour, whose Reconquest movement she described in February as a melting pot of “traditionalist Catholics, pagans and a few Nazis”. If she succeeds, she will hope for a “victory bounce” in parliamentary elections to give her a working majority. Now 53, she has said she will not stand again if defeated.

Watch: French presidential election frontrunners

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Infiniti QX80 specs

Engine: twin-turbocharged 3.5-liter V6

Power: 450hp

Torque: 700Nm

Price: From Dh450,000, Autograph model from Dh510,000

Available: Now

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 Barings, one of Britain’s oldest investment banks, was
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Recipe

Garlicky shrimp in olive oil
Gambas Al Ajillo

Preparation time: 5 to 10 minutes

Cooking time: 5 minutes

Serves 4

Ingredients

180ml extra virgin olive oil; 4 to 5 large cloves of garlic, minced or pureed (or 3 to 4 garlic scapes, roughly chopped); 1 or 2 small hot red chillies, dried (or ¼ teaspoon dried red chilli flakes); 400g raw prawns, deveined, heads removed and tails left intact; a generous splash of sweet chilli vinegar; sea salt flakes for seasoning; a small handful of fresh flat-leaf parsley, roughly chopped

Method

Heat the oil in a terracotta dish or frying pan. Once the oil is sizzling hot, add the garlic and chilli, stirring continuously for about 10 seconds until golden and aromatic.

Add a splash of sweet chilli vinegar and as it vigorously simmers, releasing perfumed aromas, add the prawns and cook, stirring a few times.

Once the prawns turn pink, after 1 or 2 minutes of cooking,  remove from the heat and season with sea salt flakes.

Once the prawns are cool enough to eat, scatter with parsley and serve with small forks or toothpicks as the perfect sharing starter. Finish off with crusty bread to soak up all that flavour-infused olive oil.

 

Business Insights
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Brolliology: A History of the Umbrella in Life and Literature
By Marion Rankine
Melville House

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The specs

Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel

Power: 579hp

Torque: 859Nm

Transmission: Single-speed automatic

Price: From Dh825,900

On sale: Now

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How to volunteer

The UAE volunteers campaign can be reached at www.volunteers.ae , or by calling 800-VOLAE (80086523), or emailing info@volunteers.ae.

Company profile

Name: Infinite8

Based: Dubai

Launch year: 2017

Number of employees: 90

Sector: Online gaming industry

Funding: $1.2m from a UAE angel investor

UPI facts

More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions

The specs
 
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
The%20Afghan%20connection
%3Cp%3EThe%20influx%20of%20talented%20young%20Afghan%20players%20to%20UAE%20cricket%20could%20have%20a%20big%20impact%20on%20the%20fortunes%20of%20both%20countries.%20Here%20are%20three%20Emirates-based%20players%20to%20watch%20out%20for.%0D%3Cbr%3E%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EHassan%20Khan%20Eisakhil%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EMohammed%20Nabi%20is%20still%20proving%20his%20worth%20at%20the%20top%20level%20but%20there%20is%20another%20reason%20he%20is%20raging%20against%20the%20idea%20of%20retirement.%20If%20the%20allrounder%20hangs%20on%20a%20little%20bit%20longer%2C%20he%20might%20be%20able%20to%20play%20in%20the%20same%20team%20as%20his%20son%2C%20Hassan%20Khan.%20The%20family%20live%20in%20Ajman%20and%20train%20in%20Sharjah.%0D%3Cbr%3E%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMasood%20Gurbaz%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EThe%20opening%20batter%2C%20who%20trains%20at%20Sharjah%20Cricket%20Academy%2C%20is%20another%20player%20who%20is%20a%20part%20of%20a%20famous%20family.%20His%20brother%2C%20Rahmanullah%2C%20was%20an%20IPL%20winner%20with%20Kolkata%20Knight%20Riders%2C%20and%20opens%20the%20batting%20with%20distinction%20for%20Afghanistan.%0D%3Cbr%3E%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOmid%20Rahman%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EThe%20fast%20bowler%20became%20a%20pioneer%20earlier%20this%20year%20when%20he%20became%20the%20first%20Afghan%20to%20represent%20the%20UAE.%20He%20showed%20great%20promise%20in%20doing%20so%2C%20too%2C%20playing%20a%20key%20role%20in%20the%20senior%20team%E2%80%99s%20qualification%20for%20the%20Asia%20Cup%20in%20Muscat%20recently.%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Afghanistan Premier League - at a glance

Venue: Sharjah Cricket Stadium

Fixtures:

Tue, Oct 16, 8pm: Kandahar Knights v Kabul Zwanan; Wed, Oct 17, 4pm: Balkh Legends v Nangarhar Leopards; 8pm: Kandahar Knights v Paktia Panthers; Thu, Oct 18, 4pm: Balkh Legends v Kandahar Knights; 8pm: Kabul Zwanan v Paktia Panthers; Fri, Oct 19, 8pm: First semi-final; Sat, Oct 20, 8pm: Second semi-final; Sun, Oct 21, 8pm: final

Table:

1. Balkh Legends 6 5 1 10

2. Paktia Panthers 6 4 2 8

3. Kabul Zwanan 6 3 3 6

4. Nagarhar Leopards 7 2 5 4

5. Kandahar Knights 5 1 4 2

MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW

Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman

Director: Jesse Armstrong

Rating: 3.5/5

The Sand Castle

Director: Matty Brown

Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea

Rating: 2.5/5

The stats: 2017 Jaguar XJ

Price, base / as tested Dh326,700 / Dh342,700

Engine 3.0L V6

Transmission Eight-speed automatic

Power 340hp @ 6,000pm

Torque 450Nm @ 3,500rpm

Fuel economy, combined 9.1L / 100km

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The%20specs
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Tips for avoiding trouble online
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if you go

The flights

Etihad, Emirates and Singapore Airlines fly direct from the UAE to Singapore from Dh2,265 return including taxes. The flight takes about 7 hours.

The hotel

Rooms at the M Social Singapore cost from SG $179 (Dh488) per night including taxes.

The tour

Makan Makan Walking group tours costs from SG $90 (Dh245) per person for about three hours. Tailor-made tours can be arranged. For details go to www.woknstroll.com.sg

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Dust and sand storms compared

Sand storm

  • Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
  • Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
  • Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
  • Travel distance: Limited 
  • Source: Open desert areas with strong winds

Dust storm

  • Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
  • Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
  • Duration: Can linger for days
  • Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
  • Source: Can be carried from distant regions
While you're here
Scoreline

Liverpool 4

Oxlade-Chamberlain 9', Firmino 59', Mane 61', Salah 68'

Manchester City 3

Sane 40', Bernardo Silva 84', Gundogan 90' 1

SPECS

Nissan 370z Nismo

Engine: 3.7-litre V6

Transmission: seven-speed automatic

Power: 363hp

Torque: 560Nm

Price: Dh184,500

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Updated: April 08, 2022, 9:53 AM`