• Refugees who fled Ukraine wait outside a temporary centre in Przemysl, Poland. Reuters
    Refugees who fled Ukraine wait outside a temporary centre in Przemysl, Poland. Reuters
  • Refugees intent on fleeing Ukraine wait for hours to board a train from Lviv to Poland. Reuters
    Refugees intent on fleeing Ukraine wait for hours to board a train from Lviv to Poland. Reuters
  • People arrive at a refugee camp near Palanca, in Moldova, about 3 kilometres from the border with Ukraine. EPA
    People arrive at a refugee camp near Palanca, in Moldova, about 3 kilometres from the border with Ukraine. EPA
  • Pupils in Sache village, France, welcome Anastasia and her son Dary, refugees fleeing Ukraine. AFP
    Pupils in Sache village, France, welcome Anastasia and her son Dary, refugees fleeing Ukraine. AFP
  • Refugees from Ukraine disembark a ferry at the border crossing in Isaccea, Romania. Getty
    Refugees from Ukraine disembark a ferry at the border crossing in Isaccea, Romania. Getty
  • People who fled Ukraine wait for transport after crossing the border into Poland. AP
    People who fled Ukraine wait for transport after crossing the border into Poland. AP
  • Refugees at a makeshift shelter set up at a four-star hotel in Suceava, Romania. AP
    Refugees at a makeshift shelter set up at a four-star hotel in Suceava, Romania. AP
  • Women and children arrive at Lviv train station in western Ukraine as they try to flee the country. EPA
    Women and children arrive at Lviv train station in western Ukraine as they try to flee the country. EPA
  • Relatives are reunited after crossing from Ukraine into Hungary. Getty
    Relatives are reunited after crossing from Ukraine into Hungary. Getty
  • A woman welcomes a child who has arrived in Berlin on a train from Poland. Reuters
    A woman welcomes a child who has arrived in Berlin on a train from Poland. Reuters
  • Refugees from Odesa arrive in Athens. Reuters
    Refugees from Odesa arrive in Athens. Reuters
  • People fleeing Ukraine arrive at Velke Slemence, Slovakia. EPA
    People fleeing Ukraine arrive at Velke Slemence, Slovakia. EPA
  • Parents and children make their way through Berlin's main station after arriving in Germany from Poland. Reuters
    Parents and children make their way through Berlin's main station after arriving in Germany from Poland. Reuters
  • Refugees at the Medyka border crossing in Poland, where thousands are fleeing as a result of the Russian military offensive. AFP
    Refugees at the Medyka border crossing in Poland, where thousands are fleeing as a result of the Russian military offensive. AFP
  • A sports hall in Chisinau, Moldova, where more than 500 people who fled from Ukraine found shelter. EPA
    A sports hall in Chisinau, Moldova, where more than 500 people who fled from Ukraine found shelter. EPA
  • A child looks out from a tent at a temporary camp for refugees in Przemysl, Poland. Reuters
    A child looks out from a tent at a temporary camp for refugees in Przemysl, Poland. Reuters
  • A worker prepares a gym in Perpignan, France, before the arrival of people fleeing Ukraine. AFP
    A worker prepares a gym in Perpignan, France, before the arrival of people fleeing Ukraine. AFP

EU prepares for five million refugees to flee Ukraine


Jamie Prentis
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Live updates: follow the latest news on Russia-Ukraine

Emmanuel Macron said Moscow's offer of humanitarian corridors out of besieged Ukrainian cities amounted to unbearable cynicism.

The French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian criticised Russia’s offer of humanitarian corridors for Ukrainian civilians as a “trap” that could possibly lead to more bombing in Ukraine.

Le Drian said in such cases Russia’s proposal of establishing humanitarian corridors actually led to more bombings after negotiations failed.

“We must not fall into traps,” Mr Le Drian added.

With fighting escalating about five million refugees could flee Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and arrive in EU member states, EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell warned.

The UN’s refugee agency said on Monday that more than 1.7 million people have already fled the conflict in Ukraine, with Polish border guards saying they had registered 964,000 refugees by Sunday.

Mr Borrell also said there should be more scrutiny of EU aid spending in countries that have supported Russia diplomatically or have not criticised Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.

“We must prepare to receive around five million people … We must mobilise all the resources of the EU to help those countries receiving people,” Mr Borrell said as he arrived for a meeting of EU development ministers in Montpellier, France, on Monday. “We will need more schools, more reception centres, more of everything.”

Refugees have also arrived in Hungary, Slovakia, Moldova and Romania.

The Red Cross said the fighting in Ukraine “is shaping up to be one of the biggest humanitarian emergencies in Europe for years to come".

“The displacement and needs are massive and will likely grow, both inside and outside of Ukraine,” said Francesco Rocca, president of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies.

Hundreds of civilians have been killed and thousands wounded in the fighting.

Mr Rocca said that millions of people still in Ukraine are currently “in desperate need of safe drinking water and food".

“With roads impassable, and electricity and water supplies cut off, people desperately need emergency medical care, medicine, clean water and shelter,” he said.

“Without urgent action to protect these services, large-scale humanitarian impacts are expected.”

Amid a flurry of diplomatic activity among senior figures in the EU and Nato, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken was in Lithuania on Monday as part of a tour of Baltic Nato member states.

“Unfortunately, the worsening security situation in the Baltic region is of great concern for all of us and around the world,” Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda told Mr Blinken.

“Russia’s reckless aggression against Ukraine once again proves that it is a long-term threat to European security, the security of our alliance.”

Mr Blinken also traveled to Riga, Latvia before visiting Tallinn, Estonia, on Tuesday.

Mr Blinken sought to reassure Nato's eastern members of their security in the event Russia chooses to expand its military operations.

“We are bolstering our shared defence so that we and our allies are prepared,” he said, stressing that the US commitment to Nato's mutual defence pact is “sacrosanct".

“We will defend every inch of Nato territory if it comes under attack,” Mr Blinken said. “No one should doubt our readiness, no one should doubt our resolve.”

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Will the pound fall to parity with the dollar?

The idea of pound parity now seems less far-fetched as the risk grows that Britain may split away from the European Union without a deal.

Rupert Harrison, a fund manager at BlackRock, sees the risk of it falling to trade level with the dollar on a no-deal Brexit. The view echoes Morgan Stanley’s recent forecast that the currency can plunge toward $1 (Dh3.67) on such an outcome. That isn’t the majority view yet – a Bloomberg survey this month estimated the pound will slide to $1.10 should the UK exit the bloc without an agreement.

New Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly said that Britain will leave the EU on the October 31 deadline with or without an agreement, fuelling concern the nation is headed for a disorderly departure and fanning pessimism toward the pound. Sterling has fallen more than 7 per cent in the past three months, the worst performance among major developed-market currencies.

“The pound is at a much lower level now but I still think a no-deal exit would lead to significant volatility and we could be testing parity on a really bad outcome,” said Mr Harrison, who manages more than $10 billion in assets at BlackRock. “We will see this game of chicken continue through August and that’s likely negative for sterling,” he said about the deadlocked Brexit talks.

The pound fell 0.8 per cent to $1.2033 on Friday, its weakest closing level since the 1980s, after a report on the second quarter showed the UK economy shrank for the first time in six years. The data means it is likely the Bank of England will cut interest rates, according to Mizuho Bank.

The BOE said in November that the currency could fall even below $1 in an analysis on possible worst-case Brexit scenarios. Options-based calculations showed around a 6.4 per cent chance of pound-dollar parity in the next one year, markedly higher than 0.2 per cent in early March when prospects of a no-deal outcome were seemingly off the table.

Bloomberg

Updated: March 07, 2022, 5:29 PM