Euphoria over breaking of Aleppo siege glosses over Nusra’s central role

Jabhat Fatah Al Sham, as the former Al Qaeda-affiliated Jabhat Al Nusra group now calls itself, seems to have been the main driving force behind the six-day offensive, leading the charge against regime forces in the south-west of the city.

Syrians celebrate in the northern city of Aleppo on August 6, 2016, after rebels broke a three-week government siege on the city's opposition-held areas. Thaer Mohammed/AFP

BEIRUT // Syrian rebels and their supporters celebrated with gunfire, car horns and chants as they marched and danced through the streets of eastern Aleppo on Saturday night after opposition units broke through government lines, ending a three-week siege.

Amid the euphoria that there was now a route for civilians to escape and for aid to enter, as well as for opposition fighters to be reinforced and resupplied, one thing was glossed over: the victory was spearheaded by a group that barely a week before had still been Al Qaeda’s official Syria branch.

Jabhat Fatah Al Sham, as the former Al Qaeda-affiliated Jabhat Al Nusra group now calls itself, seems to have been the main driving force behind the six-day offensive, leading the charge against regime forces in south-west Aleppo. Its suicide bombers softened Syrian government targets and shattered nerves. Its artillery bombardments were relentless. And its fighters were eager to run into battle.

The Aleppo offensive was the stunning culmination of a power play aimed at entrenching the group’s place within the Syrian opposition, increasing the dependence of rebel factions and underlining its dominance in northern Syria.

On July 28, Al Nusra said it was breaking away from Al Qaeda because foreign powers were using the affiliation as a pretext to bomb the Syrian people. Rebranded as Fatah Al Sham, the group stressed that it hoped its new independence would help foster unity with other rebel groups and allow the opposition to better confront the Syrian government. A little more than a week later, Fatah Al Sham’s fighters have significantly contributed to ending the siege on eastern Aleppo, where rebel forces were looking increasingly desperate and ineffectual against government troops and Russian and Syrian air strikes and with support from their friends in the international community dwindling.

The victory has boosted Fatah Al Sham’s credibility among the rebels and helped fortify its argument that it is in the same fight, with the same goals, as the Syrian opposition. For those in the opposition who have long been wary of the extremist group, Fatah Al Sham’s leading role in ending the siege – and even making it look easy in terms of speed – has shown that the rebels need them if they want to succeed on the battlefield. If Fatah Al Sham facilitates the delivery of aid to civilians in Aleppo and ensures their protection, it will win their hearts and minds.

The Fatah Al Sham-led offensive has showed the rebels that not only can they survive, but they might even be able to win in Aleppo. In a dramatic reversal of fortunes, fighters who were facing defeat and starvation just days ago now find themselves in a position to put government forces in western Aleppo under siege. Only a narrow strip of territory connects these troops to their main supply lines. With reinforcements, a major morale boost and the participation of Fatah Al Sham, encircling these forces is now a very real possibility.

The United Nations has been hoping to revive peace talks between the government and rebels. A significant threat to government forces in western Aleppo could provide much more incentive to bring the Assad regime to the table and seriously discuss a settlement to the five-year conflict.

The catch, however, is that Al Nusra was explicitly barred from any participation in peace talks and any potential settlement in the Syrian conflict. Still viewed as a terrorist organisation by the Syrian government, Russia, the United States and other members of the international community despite the name change, it is likely this exclusion will continue.

While Al Nusra has rebranded, it has not reformed. The militants have signalled that they want to work more closely with the broader Syrian opposition – and the Aleppo offensive seems to back this up – but they continue to hold on to extremist beliefs.

During the fight to break the siege, the group’s official releases continued to refer to Syrian government forces as the “Nusayri army”, using a pejorative term for Alawites. In their attack to capture Aleppo’s artillery academy, the militants invoked the name of a man who massacred dozens of Alawite cadets in the academy’s mess hall in 1979. While the mainstream opposition speaks of Aleppo in terms of resistance and freedom, Fatah Al Sham speaks of it as a sectarian battle against non-believers.

With the group’s influence growing, attempts to end the conflict and to distinguish between extremists and moderates on the battlefield could become even more complicated than they already are.

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