US President Donald Trump is hitting the campaign trail hard this week, hoping to turn his fortunes in the final days of a presidential election that most forecasts suggest he will lose.
His Democratic challenger, Joe Biden, has a wide 8-10 percentage point lead in national opinion polls.
Mr Biden is staging fewer and smaller rallies, aiming to win toss-up states and promoting a plan to tackle Covid-19 for when he runs the White House.
But a cloud hangs over the Biden campaign.
Four years ago, Mr Trump was trailing badly behind Hillary Clinton, yet he managed an upset victory on election night with relatively small majorities in key battleground states.
"A few days out, the picture of this race is pretty clear," tweeted Dave Wasserman, a forecaster at The Cook Political Report.
"Biden’s lead is larger and more stable than Clinton’s in '16. I’ve seen … almost enough.”
Other top analysts read the data in a similar way. Mr Biden’s lead in polls has been large and steady.
Mr Trump has had consistently poor approval ratings for his presidency and his Covid-19 response has been panned, they say. This election is not a rerun of 2016.
"The polls could still be wrong. But unlike in 2016, where you could see the warning signs, I don't see much cause for concern at the moment," tweeted Nate Jones, a polling analyst with The New York Times.
But The Guardian's US data editor, Mona Chalabi, urged caution.
Pollsters missed many Trump voters in 2016 and those same people may be unwilling to share their true voting intentions in telephone surveys this time around, Ms Chalabi says.
Messages from the candidates on Monday fed into the same narrative.
“We’re going to take our democracy back,” Mr Biden bullishly declared. He urged voters to mark ballots in the “most important election of our lifetimes”.
Meanwhile, Mr Trump blasted the "corrupt media" for deliberately overstating the threat from coronavirus, which has claimed More than 225,000 lives and infected almost 8.7 million people in the US, to hurt his chances on November 3.
"The fake news media is riding Covid, Covid, Covid all the way to the election," Mr Trump tweeted on Monday.
"Cases [are] up because we test, test, test."
The president held three rallies in Pennsylvania on Monday and was booked for others on Tuesday in Michigan and Wyoming.
Mr Trump clawed out victories in the three traditional Democratic strongholds in 2016 and hopes to win them again to keep the White House.
On Tuesday he was also set to address crowds in Nebraska, a reliably conservative state, but also an outlier that does not automatically give all its electoral votes to one candidate, leaving Mr Biden with a chance to add to his tally there.
The president's children, Ivanka, Eric and Donald Trump Jr, fanned out across Florida, Arizona and other battlegrounds.
Vice President Mike Pence was also on the trail rather than self-isolating after one of his staffers tested positive for Covid-19.
The Biden campaign was less frenetic. On Monday, Mr Biden stayed close to home for a campaign stop in Wilmington, Delaware, where his 26-point lead over Mr Trump required little buttressing.
On Tuesday, he was headed to Georgia, where the two are neck and neck.
Mr Trump calls his rival “basement Joe” for his stay-at-home campaign.
Mr Biden appears to be comfortable sitting on his lead, buoyed by two passable TV debate performances and perhaps mitigating against any last-minute gaffes.
Greenbacks tell another part of the story. Mr Biden raised $130 million during the first half of October and spent more than $145m.
In that time, Mr Trump raised nearly $43.6m and spent $63.1m, according to filings with the Federal Election Commission.
That gives Mr Biden a $107m cash advantage over Mr Trump.
But the figures do not include fundraising by other political committees, and Mr Trump managed to win in 2016 despite Ms Clinton’s bigger war chest.
Early voting may be a decisive factor. By Monday, 58.6 million ballots had been cast by mail and at early voting sites, already more than 2016's totals.
Many Americans are keen to avoid crowds on November 3 because of Covid-19. Nothing either candidate says, does or tweets at this stage can change those votes.
Early-voting turnout appears to favour Democrats but such data is not a good indicator of election outcomes.
At this stage, the Trump campaign strategy appears to involve turning out the same blue-collar voters in swing states who pushed him above the 270 electoral college votes to secure him the White House in 2016.
To accomplish this, Mr Trump needs to win the Republican-leaning and battleground states of Florida, Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina and Texas, which he won last time, and beat the odds in Pennsylvania and either Wisconsin or Michigan.
For Nate Silver, another acclaimed election analyst, this is a long shot.
Mr Trump could surprise the pundits in 2020 just as he did in 2016, but the clock is ticking, many votes are already cast and the polls are bleaker.
“There are several theories for why Mr Trump could win that very probably aren’t true,” Mr Silver tweeted.
“But if you add up a lot of longshot possibilities, it’s not that hard to get to a 10-15 per cent chance, which is something worth taking seriously.”
ALRAWABI%20SCHOOL%20FOR%20GIRLS
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Defending champions
World Series: South Africa
Women’s World Series: Australia
Gulf Men’s League: Dubai Exiles
Gulf Men’s Social: Mediclinic Barrelhouse Warriors
Gulf Vets: Jebel Ali Dragons Veterans
Gulf Women: Dubai Sports City Eagles
Gulf Under 19: British School Al Khubairat
Gulf Under 19 Girls: Dubai Exiles
UAE National Schools: Al Safa School
International Invitational: Speranza 22
International Vets: Joining Jack
Will the pound fall to parity with the dollar?
The idea of pound parity now seems less far-fetched as the risk grows that Britain may split away from the European Union without a deal.
Rupert Harrison, a fund manager at BlackRock, sees the risk of it falling to trade level with the dollar on a no-deal Brexit. The view echoes Morgan Stanley’s recent forecast that the currency can plunge toward $1 (Dh3.67) on such an outcome. That isn’t the majority view yet – a Bloomberg survey this month estimated the pound will slide to $1.10 should the UK exit the bloc without an agreement.
New Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly said that Britain will leave the EU on the October 31 deadline with or without an agreement, fuelling concern the nation is headed for a disorderly departure and fanning pessimism toward the pound. Sterling has fallen more than 7 per cent in the past three months, the worst performance among major developed-market currencies.
“The pound is at a much lower level now but I still think a no-deal exit would lead to significant volatility and we could be testing parity on a really bad outcome,” said Mr Harrison, who manages more than $10 billion in assets at BlackRock. “We will see this game of chicken continue through August and that’s likely negative for sterling,” he said about the deadlocked Brexit talks.
The pound fell 0.8 per cent to $1.2033 on Friday, its weakest closing level since the 1980s, after a report on the second quarter showed the UK economy shrank for the first time in six years. The data means it is likely the Bank of England will cut interest rates, according to Mizuho Bank.
The BOE said in November that the currency could fall even below $1 in an analysis on possible worst-case Brexit scenarios. Options-based calculations showed around a 6.4 per cent chance of pound-dollar parity in the next one year, markedly higher than 0.2 per cent in early March when prospects of a no-deal outcome were seemingly off the table.
Bloomberg
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%3Cp%3ESixteen%20boys%20and%2015%20girls%20have%20gone%20on%20from%20Go-Pro%20Academy%20in%20Dubai%20to%20either%20professional%20contracts%20abroad%20or%20scholarships%20in%20the%20United%20States.%20Here%20are%20two%20of%20the%20most%20prominent.%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EGeorgia%20Gibson%20(Newcastle%20United)%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EThe%20reason%20the%20academy%20in%20Dubai%20first%20set%20up%20a%20girls%E2%80%99%20programme%20was%20to%20help%20Gibson%20reach%20her%20potential.%20Now%20she%20plays%20professionally%20for%20Newcastle%20United%20in%20the%20UK.%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMackenzie%20Hunt%20(Everton)%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EAttended%20DESS%20in%20Dubai%2C%20before%20heading%20to%20the%20UK%20to%20join%20Everton%20full%20time%20as%20a%20teenager.%20He%20was%20on%20the%20bench%20for%20the%20first%20team%20as%20recently%20as%20their%20fixture%20against%20Brighton%20on%20February%2024.%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
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%3Cp%3EEncourage%20innovation%20in%20the%20metaverse%20field%20and%20boost%20economic%20contribution%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EDevelop%20outstanding%20talents%20through%20education%20and%20training%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EDevelop%20applications%20and%20the%20way%20they%20are%20used%20in%20Dubai's%20government%20institutions%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAdopt%2C%20expand%20and%20promote%20secure%20platforms%20globally%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EDevelop%20the%20infrastructure%20and%20regulations%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Dark Souls: Remastered
Developer: From Software (remaster by QLOC)
Publisher: Namco Bandai
Price: Dh199
Profile box
Company name: baraka
Started: July 2020
Founders: Feras Jalbout and Kunal Taneja
Based: Dubai and Bahrain
Sector: FinTech
Initial investment: $150,000
Current staff: 12
Stage: Pre-seed capital raising of $1 million
Investors: Class 5 Global, FJ Labs, IMO Ventures, The Community Fund, VentureSouq, Fox Ventures, Dr Abdulla Elyas (private investment)
WITHIN%20SAND
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Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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United States
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China
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UAE
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Japan
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Norway
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Canada
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Singapore
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Australia
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Saudi Arabia
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If you go
The flights
Emirates (www.emirates.com) and Etihad (www.etihad.com) both fly direct to Bengaluru, with return fares from Dh 1240. From Bengaluru airport, Coorg is a five-hour drive by car.
The hotels
The Tamara (www.thetamara.com) is located inside a working coffee plantation and offers individual villas with sprawling views of the hills (tariff from Dh1,300, including taxes and breakfast).
When to go
Coorg is an all-year destination, with the peak season for travel extending from the cooler months between October and March.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE SQUAD
Goalkeepers: Ali Khaseif, Fahad Al Dhanhani, Mohammed Al Shamsi, Adel Al Hosani
Defenders: Bandar Al Ahbabi, Shaheen Abdulrahman, Walid Abbas, Mahmoud Khamis, Mohammed Barghash, Khalifa Al Hammadi, Hassan Al Mahrami, Yousef Jaber, Salem Rashid, Mohammed Al Attas, Alhassan Saleh
Midfielders: Ali Salmeen, Abdullah Ramadan, Abdullah Al Naqbi, Majed Hassan, Yahya Nader, Ahmed Barman, Abdullah Hamad, Khalfan Mubarak, Khalil Al Hammadi, Tahnoun Al Zaabi, Harib Abdallah, Mohammed Jumah, Yahya Al Ghassani
Forwards: Fabio De Lima, Caio Canedo, Ali Saleh, Ali Mabkhout, Sebastian Tagliabue, Zayed Al Ameri
Racecard
6.35pm: American Business Council – Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (Dirt) 1,600m
7.10pm: British Business Group – Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (D) 1,200m
7.45pm: CCI France UAE – Handicap (TB) Dh87,500 (D) 1,400m
8.20pm: Czech Business Council – Rated Conditions (TB) Dh105,000 (D) 1,400m
8.55pm: Netherlands Business Council – Rated Conditions (TB) Dh95,000 (D) 1,600m
9.30pm: Indian Business and Professional Council – Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (D) 1,200m
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECreator%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ramez%20Galal%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ramez%20Galal%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStreaming%20on%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMBC%20Shahid%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
