A North Korean soldier, left, looks at the South side as a South Korean soldier, right, stands guard at the truce village of Panmunjom in the Demilitarized Zone which has separated the two Koreas since the Korean War, in Paju, South Korea, Thursday, Sept. 28, 2017.
A North Korean soldier, left, looks at the South side as a South Korean soldier, right, stands guard at the truce village of Panmunjom in the Demilitarized Zone which has separated the two Koreas sincShow more

Security experts examine implications of a North Korea conflict



The US State Department travel warning was updated while Pyongyang slept at 2am Korea Standard Time and while its instructions were dramatic, it was the regime reaction that set off full-scale war.

Underneath a red danger shield icon emblazoned with a capitalised X, Washington had told its 140,000 citizens in south Korea to evacuate the region through the department website.

“Due to the serious and mounting risk of conflict on the Korean peninsula, the secretary of state restricted the use of US passports to travel into or through or residence in South Korea, effective immediately,” the release declared.

A discussion at the Royal United Service Institute on London Whitehall on Thursday fictionally identified the routine bureaucratic upgrade of travel advice by the US government as one scenario in which a North Korean conflict was triggered against the backdrop of escalating regional tensions.

The end of former president Barack Obama’s policy of strategic patience has coincided with a dramatic upgrade in North Korea’s nuclear weapons capabilities, resulting in a shift in the potential for warfare, according to the Rusi report.

“War is now a real possibility. With North Korea making rapid progress in its missile and nuclear programmes, time is not on diplomacy’s side,” the report said. “Donald Trump and his senior officials have said America will not tolerate a North Korean [intercontinental nuclear missile threat] to its territory and citizens and that ‘classical deterrence theory” is not applicable.”

Addressing the United Nations last week, Mr Trump taunted the North Korean leader as “rocket man on a suicide mission”. North Korean representatives said the president’s speech was itself a declaration of war and threated to shoot down US planes patrolling in the region.

The security-focused think tank reported that fighting can be avoided but it said the implications of a conflict can now be foreseen and examined. “The escalation we are seeing is such that war in this case is more likely than any of the other scenarios we talk about such as the US and China in the South China Sea,” said the study author Malcolm Chalmers.

“Clearly there is nervousness. The greater unpredictability of President Trump clearly has many urging that the US does not take a pre-emptive strike.”

The travel advice scenario rests on Kim Jong-un’s regime being bombarded with warnings of a pre-emptive attack during a period in which a series of abnormal measures had already taken place, such as sending infantry reinforcements to South Korea.

A stand-off in which the US moves naval, missile batteries and troops to north-east Asia would leave all sides ready for battle and suspicious of new developments.

Even a travel warning could be taken by Pyongyang as a signal of a US pre-emptive strike and lead North Korea to fatefully decide to get its own retaliation in first. A US forces exercise last June practiced for just such an evacuation of American civilians from South Korea.

In the circumstances North Korea is likely to launch artillery and rocket strikes across the demilitarised zone. In response the US would authorise devastating air strikes and a cyberwar offensive.

Pyongyang’s options would then see a campaign of infiltration into South Korea to disrupt the enemies behind the line. Massive use of chemical and, possibly, nuclear weapons would accompany Pyongyang’s ground attack.

The implications of war are bleak both for the Korean nations as well as the rest of the region.

“Within the first few weeks, there could be hundreds of thousands of casualties in both North and South Korea, including the deaths of thousands of US military personnel and civilians,” Prof Chalmers said. “If China also gets involved militarily, or if nuclear weapons are used, it could be a lot worse. International trade and investment would suffer as economic activity slumped in one of the globe’s most productive regions.”

The report catalogued a variety of ways that conflict could begin, mainly relating to a North Korea action that triggers a response from the US. “North Korea could strike first if it believed the US were moving towards a surprise attack or a US attack might be triggered by North Korean test missiles hitting the ocean near Guam or California,” the report said.

Even the golden bullet scenario in which the finger of the North Korea leader is removed from the nuclear button is unlikely to ease the threat to the US. “The North Korean command and control for nuclear weapons won’t want any launches without the express order from the leader but will have made provision for an attack if the leadership is destroyed.”

Given that America’s allies, including Japan and South Korea, would have just hours to decide to join an attack or signal opposition, Prof Chalmers said friendly countries should be warning Washington to reject all plans for a pre-emptive strike.

The White Lotus: Season three

Creator: Mike White

Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell

Rating: 4.5/5

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

Vidaamuyarchi

Director: Magizh Thirumeni

Stars: Ajith Kumar, Arjun Sarja, Trisha Krishnan, Regina Cassandra

Rating: 4/5

 

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Key facilities
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  • Premier League-standard football pitch
  • 400m Olympic running track
  • NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
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Founders: Michele Ferrario, Nino Ulsamer and Freddy Lim
Started: established in 2016 and launched in July 2017
Based: Singapore, with offices in the UAE, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Thailand
Sector: FinTech, wealth management
Initial investment: $500,000 in seed round 1 in 2016; $2.2m in seed round 2 in 2017; $5m in series A round in 2018; $12m in series B round in 2019; $16m in series C round in 2020 and $25m in series D round in 2021
Current staff: more than 160 employees
Stage: series D 
Investors: EightRoads Ventures, Square Peg Capital, Sequoia Capital India

ACL Elite (West) - fixtures

Monday, Sept 30

Al Sadd v Esteghlal (8pm)
Persepolis v Pakhtakor (8pm)
Al Wasl v Al Ahli (8pm)
Al Nassr v Al Rayyan (10pm)

Tuesday, Oct 1
Al Hilal v Al Shorta (10pm)
Al Gharafa v Al Ain (10pm)

How much do leading UAE’s UK curriculum schools charge for Year 6?
  1. Nord Anglia International School (Dubai) – Dh85,032
  2. Kings School Al Barsha (Dubai) – Dh71,905
  3. Brighton College Abu Dhabi - Dh68,560
  4. Jumeirah English Speaking School (Dubai) – Dh59,728
  5. Gems Wellington International School – Dubai Branch – Dh58,488
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*Annual tuition fees covering the 2024/2025 academic year

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Company profile

Date started: 2015

Founder: John Tsioris and Ioanna Angelidaki

Based: Dubai

Sector: Online grocery delivery

Staff: 200

Funding: Undisclosed, but investors include the Jabbar Internet Group and Venture Friends

Seven tips from Emirates NBD

1. Never respond to e-mails, calls or messages asking for account, card or internet banking details

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4. Change passwords periodically as a precautionary measure

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German intelligence warnings
  • 2002: "Hezbollah supporters feared becoming a target of security services because of the effects of [9/11] ... discussions on Hezbollah policy moved from mosques into smaller circles in private homes." Supporters in Germany: 800
  • 2013: "Financial and logistical support from Germany for Hezbollah in Lebanon supports the armed struggle against Israel ... Hezbollah supporters in Germany hold back from actions that would gain publicity." Supporters in Germany: 950
  • 2023: "It must be reckoned with that Hezbollah will continue to plan terrorist actions outside the Middle East against Israel or Israeli interests." Supporters in Germany: 1,250 

Source: Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution

Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
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Biog

Mr Kandhari is legally authorised to conduct marriages in the gurdwara

He has officiated weddings of Sikhs and people of different faiths from Malaysia, Sri Lanka, Russia, the US and Canada

Father of two sons, grandfather of six

Plays golf once a week

Enjoys trying new holiday destinations with his wife and family

Walks for an hour every morning

Completed a Bachelor of Commerce degree in Loyola College, Chennai, India

2019 is a milestone because he completes 50 years in business

 

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Rating: 3/5

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THE SPECS

      

 

Engine: 1.5-litre

 

Transmission: 6-speed automatic

 

Power: 110 horsepower 

 

Torque: 147Nm 

 

Price: From Dh59,700 

 

On sale: now  

 
The specs

AT4 Ultimate, as tested

Engine: 6.2-litre V8

Power: 420hp

Torque: 623Nm

Transmission: 10-speed automatic

Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)

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Skewed figures

In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458. 

The 12 Syrian entities delisted by UK 

Ministry of Interior
Ministry of Defence
General Intelligence Directorate
Air Force Intelligence Agency
Political Security Directorate
Syrian National Security Bureau
Military Intelligence Directorate
Army Supply Bureau
General Organisation of Radio and TV
Al Watan newspaper
Cham Press TV
Sama TV

COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
 
Started: 2021
 
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
 
Based: Tunisia 
 
Sector: Water technology 
 
Number of staff: 22 
 
Investment raised: $4 million 
The specs
 
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)