The US State Department travel warning was updated while Pyongyang slept at 2am Korea Standard Time and while its instructions were dramatic, it was the regime reaction that set off full-scale war.
Underneath a red danger shield icon emblazoned with a capitalised X, Washington had told its 140,000 citizens in south Korea to evacuate the region through the department website.
“Due to the serious and mounting risk of conflict on the Korean peninsula, the secretary of state restricted the use of US passports to travel into or through or residence in South Korea, effective immediately,” the release declared.
A discussion at the Royal United Service Institute on London Whitehall on Thursday fictionally identified the routine bureaucratic upgrade of travel advice by the US government as one scenario in which a North Korean conflict was triggered against the backdrop of escalating regional tensions.
The end of former president Barack Obama’s policy of strategic patience has coincided with a dramatic upgrade in North Korea’s nuclear weapons capabilities, resulting in a shift in the potential for warfare, according to the Rusi report.
“War is now a real possibility. With North Korea making rapid progress in its missile and nuclear programmes, time is not on diplomacy’s side,” the report said. “Donald Trump and his senior officials have said America will not tolerate a North Korean [intercontinental nuclear missile threat] to its territory and citizens and that ‘classical deterrence theory” is not applicable.”
Addressing the United Nations last week, Mr Trump taunted the North Korean leader as “rocket man on a suicide mission”. North Korean representatives said the president’s speech was itself a declaration of war and threated to shoot down US planes patrolling in the region.
The security-focused think tank reported that fighting can be avoided but it said the implications of a conflict can now be foreseen and examined. “The escalation we are seeing is such that war in this case is more likely than any of the other scenarios we talk about such as the US and China in the South China Sea,” said the study author Malcolm Chalmers.
“Clearly there is nervousness. The greater unpredictability of President Trump clearly has many urging that the US does not take a pre-emptive strike.”
The travel advice scenario rests on Kim Jong-un’s regime being bombarded with warnings of a pre-emptive attack during a period in which a series of abnormal measures had already taken place, such as sending infantry reinforcements to South Korea.
A stand-off in which the US moves naval, missile batteries and troops to north-east Asia would leave all sides ready for battle and suspicious of new developments.
Even a travel warning could be taken by Pyongyang as a signal of a US pre-emptive strike and lead North Korea to fatefully decide to get its own retaliation in first. A US forces exercise last June practiced for just such an evacuation of American civilians from South Korea.
In the circumstances North Korea is likely to launch artillery and rocket strikes across the demilitarised zone. In response the US would authorise devastating air strikes and a cyberwar offensive.
Pyongyang’s options would then see a campaign of infiltration into South Korea to disrupt the enemies behind the line. Massive use of chemical and, possibly, nuclear weapons would accompany Pyongyang’s ground attack.
The implications of war are bleak both for the Korean nations as well as the rest of the region.
“Within the first few weeks, there could be hundreds of thousands of casualties in both North and South Korea, including the deaths of thousands of US military personnel and civilians,” Prof Chalmers said. “If China also gets involved militarily, or if nuclear weapons are used, it could be a lot worse. International trade and investment would suffer as economic activity slumped in one of the globe’s most productive regions.”
The report catalogued a variety of ways that conflict could begin, mainly relating to a North Korea action that triggers a response from the US. “North Korea could strike first if it believed the US were moving towards a surprise attack or a US attack might be triggered by North Korean test missiles hitting the ocean near Guam or California,” the report said.
Even the golden bullet scenario in which the finger of the North Korea leader is removed from the nuclear button is unlikely to ease the threat to the US. “The North Korean command and control for nuclear weapons won’t want any launches without the express order from the leader but will have made provision for an attack if the leadership is destroyed.”
Given that America’s allies, including Japan and South Korea, would have just hours to decide to join an attack or signal opposition, Prof Chalmers said friendly countries should be warning Washington to reject all plans for a pre-emptive strike.
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UK's plans to cut net migration
Under the UK government’s proposals, migrants will have to spend 10 years in the UK before being able to apply for citizenship.
Skilled worker visas will require a university degree, and there will be tighter restrictions on recruitment for jobs with skills shortages.
But what are described as "high-contributing" individuals such as doctors and nurses could be fast-tracked through the system.
Language requirements will be increased for all immigration routes to ensure a higher level of English.
Rules will also be laid out for adult dependants, meaning they will have to demonstrate a basic understanding of the language.
The plans also call for stricter tests for colleges and universities offering places to foreign students and a reduction in the time graduates can remain in the UK after their studies from two years to 18 months.
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- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
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- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
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MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – FINAL RECKONING
Director: Christopher McQuarrie
Starring: Tom Cruise, Hayley Atwell, Simon Pegg
Rating: 4/5
BMW M5 specs
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More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
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Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
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Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
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If you go...
Etihad flies daily from Abu Dhabi to Zurich, with fares starting from Dh2,807 return. Frequent high speed trains between Zurich and Vienna make stops at St. Anton.
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre four-cylinder turbo
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Transmission: seven-speed dual-clutch auto
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Top 10 locations for inquiries from US house hunters, according to Rightmove
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Sand storm
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Dust storm
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
SPECS
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