India forecast to experience normal monsoon this year

Rainy season vital to economy is predicted to be 98 per cent of average

A man stands by the Arabian Sea coast as it drizzles in Kochi in the southern state of Kerala where India's monsoon begins. AP Photo

India's monsoon, which irrigates more than half the country's farmland and is critical for economic growth, is expected to be normal for a third year as external weather patterns such as El Nino are likely to be absent.

Total rainfall during the June-September rainy period is likely to be 98 per cent of a long-term average, Madhavan Nair Rajeevan, secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, said on Friday. The forecast has a 5 per cent margin of error.

Most parts of the country, except some areas in the east and the north, are likely to receive normal to above-normal rain during the four-month period, according to the India Meteorological Department.

The chances of a normal monsoon are 40 per cent, while there is a 16 per cent chance of above-normal rains, the department said. The likelihood of below-normal showers is 25 per cent.

The monsoon is crucial for India because about 60 per cent of more than 1.3 billion people depend directly or indirectly on agriculture, which accounts for about 18 per cent of its economy. Normal rains would help to support an economic recovery, which is facing new risks from a resurgence in coronavirus cases.

“Amidst the heightened uncertainty related to the second wave of Covid-19 in India, the India Meteorological Department’s forecast of a likely normal monsoon for the third year in a row couldn’t have come at a better time,” said Kaushik Das, chief India economist at Deutsche Bank in Mumbai.

"A probable normal monsoon will help the farm sector to grow by at least 3 per cent this year, as per our current forecast, and will also reduce potential risks on the inflation front, that is generally associated with [an] erratic monsoon," Mr Das said.

Rains during the four-month period not only water some fields directly, but also fill reservoirs that help to irrigate winter-sown crops. A good monsoon boosts crop output, while deficient rains lead to drinking water shortages, lower crop output and higher imports of some commodities.

The nation is the world’s top grower of cotton, the second-biggest producer of wheat, rice and sugar, and the largest buyer of palm oil.

About 60 per cent to 90 per cent of total annual rainfall occurs during the season over different states. A monsoon is considered normal when rains recorded are between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of the 50-year average.

A combine harvester at work in a wheat field in Panipat district of Haryana, India, on April 11, 2021. Bloomberg

Kerala first

The monsoon typically reaches the southern state of Kerala in the first week of June, before moving north to cover most of the nation. Any delay or rain deficit in the early part of the season could hamper sowing and hurt crops such as rice, cotton and soybeans, even if the rainfall gathers pace later.

Last year’s monsoon rain was 9 per cent higher than normal, while it was 10 per cent more than the long-term average in 2019. Bountiful rains helped crops and boosted India’s food grain output to a record in 2020-2021.

Agriculture was the only bright spot as the economy posted a record slump last year as manufacturing and services were badly hit by the nationwide lockdown caused by the rapid spread of the coronavirus.

The meteorological department said that neutral Enso conditions – the absence of El Nino or La Nina weather patterns – are prevailing over the Pacific Ocean, supporting its forecast of a normal monsoon this year.

“There is very much less chance of El Nino development during the monsoon season.”