BANGKOK // The battle for Bangkok resumed yesterday when more than 100,000 anti-government protesters, clad in distinctive red shirts, marched through the city and surrounded several key locations in an effort to topple the three-month-old government. Some observers are concerned this show of force by the supporters of Thaksin Shinawatra, the former prime minister now in self-imposed exile, could lead to violence and instability, while others believe it may even end in civil war. The protesters from the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) demand the government led by Abhisit Vejjajiva, the prime minister, resign and fresh elections be held. They want a return to the constitution of 1997, which was replaced by the military junta that ousted Mr Thaksin in Sept 2006. They believe the current government came to power in a silent coup supported by the country's establishment and the army. "Help me please, I want democracy," read one of the many banners held by the protesters. "I believe this government is not for the people, only Mr Thaksin represents the people," Nita, a 28-year-old demonstrator from Udon Thani in the country's north-east, said in an interview. A single mother, she has taken three days' holiday to attend the protest. An estimated 100,000 protesters have now laid siege to parts of the city, though this is far less than the 300,000 the demonstration's organisers had predicted would heed their leaders' call on the eve of the protests. "We will come peacefully, but we need as many people as possible to show that the Thai people will not tolerate these politics any more," Mr Thaksin told his supporters gathered outside Government House by videophone. He urged his followers to make it a historic day for Thailand. "We are facing several days of extreme unpredictability," Thitinan Pongsudhirak, who teaches politics at Chulalongkorn University, said. "It's extremely fluid and dynamic; it all depends on the response of the authorities - the army, the police and the government." The prime minister continues to insist the demonstrations are not going to affect the government's affairs and that an Asian leaders' summit, scheduled to be held in the beach resort of Pattaya to the east of the capital, will go ahead as planned this weekend. On Tuesday, Mr Abhisit's motorcade was attacked after a cabinet meeting there, and the car he was travelling in was badly damaged. "The government will not dissolve parliament," Mr Abhisit told reporters yesterday. "We will only do so if it is an appropriate solution. We will not respond to threats of violence." This week he said the police would be restrained in any action against the demonstrators, but civil disorder would not be tolerated. "There's a group of people wanting to create chaos, but the government will do everything to restrain them," he said in a television interview. "If there's rioting, we will have to do something. But I can affirm there will be no violence starting from the government's side." Prof Thitinan said: "The rise and rage of the Reds must be recognised. The authorities would be foolish to underestimate their strength, commitment and resolve. What the Red Shirts want is to provoke violence; they want a crackdown. They are ready for it and they will react." Nattawut Saikeau, one of the group's leaders, said: "If we are attacked, the Red Shirts will fight, but we will hold the government accountable if we have to strike back." Many analysts worry that Thaksin and his supporters have now declared outright war on the government and are unlikely to retreat. This is almost certain to provoke the anti-Thaksin lobby, the Yellow Shirts, who are all members of the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), which seized Government House last August, forcing the then government led by the pro-Thaksin People's Power Party out of power. The demonstrators brought the country virtually to a complete standstill in December, when they seized Bangkok's main airport. "The leaders of the PAD have been monitoring the situation every hour, out of concern that the Red Shirts might be prone to violence," the PAD spokesman, Suriyasai Katasila, said in an interview. "We will not allow them to instigate violence, and if they attack the privy councillors and the monarchy we will be forced into action." For the past two weeks the Red Shirts have been protesting outside Government House, and being addressed on most nights by the former prime minister through a videolink. In these speeches, Thaksin has helped fuel the political divisions within the country, especially when he recently accused two prominent privy councillors, who are appointed by the palace to advise the king, and the judiciary of plotting to overthrow his previous government. As a result the protesters have targeted the homes of these prominent figures and demanded their immediate resignation. "You will see more attacks like this with the aim of informing people about the background stories behind Thai politics since the coup," said Jakrapob Penkair, a leader of the Red Shirts. "The aristocracy is now a target, not only the government, as a dictatorship in disguise." Although the numbers of Red Shirts that have taken to the streets are less than their leaders had predicted, their strength and resolve have stunned both the government and most observers who had written the movement off as a flagging cause. "The situation is extremely volatile, and could lead to civil war or another coup some time in the future," Prof Thitinan said. Others believe Thaksin has overstretched himself. "Mr Thaksin has gone too far now, by openly challenging the Privy Council and the bureaucracy, he has thrown down the gauntlet but cannot win," said Kavi Chiongkittavorn, a senior editor at the English-language daily newspaper The Nation. "This is his final act - he's finished now," he insisted. But most observers feel this might be the opening salvo rather than the end game. The Thaksin camp obviously feels the battle has only begun, and is likely to get rough in the future. Thaksin's three children, his ex-wife and his brother-in-law, and a former prime minister, Somchai Wongsawat, all left the country on Tuesday, according to a senior government minister in the Prime Minister's Office, Sathit Wongnongtoey. ljagan@thenational.ae
Bangkok under siege as red tide rises
Thousands of angry supporters of the former Thai prime minister march through the streets of the capital and surround key locations.
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