PUL-E-ALAM, LOGAR // Community leaders from one of Afghanistan's major provinces say the war will end only when the government asks foreign troops to leave and engages in clear peace talks with the country's main insurgent groups.
Residents in Logar, a crucial transport hub linking Kabul to the south and east, believe an upcoming national peace council can help to bring a resolution to the nine-year conflict. But many are adamant that members of the Taliban now involved in the resistance must participate for it to have a significant effect - a scenario that seems unlikely at the moment, with both sides still at odds over the terms of any negotiations.
Haji Yaqoot Shah, a village leader from the district of Charkh, where "all you can hear are a lot of gun shots", says: "If it is an Afghan jirga and we have a delegation of the Taliban involved in the work, let's be clear: I am supporting it."
Having twice been delayed after it was originally scheduled for early May, the peace council, or "jirga", is now due to take place from Wednesday to Friday.
Tribal elders and religious leaders from across the country have been invited to attend the event, which is meant to help establish the grounds for negotiations with the insurgency. The Taliban has already denounced the gathering and is not expected to send any representatives. Instead, it will continue to demand the withdrawal of all foreign troops from Afghanistan.
Here in Logar there is widespread sympathy for that stance, with people commonly blaming the United States and its allies for the violence in their midst. However, there is also a feeling that the rebels and the government must try to put aside their differences or the situation will deteriorate further.
Describing the Taliban as "my big brothers", Mr Shah said: "Fighting will not solve anything."
Logar's border with Kabul makes it a vital transport link for much of the country. Military convoys travelling to and from the south and east move through the province; the Taliban are also believed to use it as a route for ferrying weapons and men into the capital.
It has been the site of a number of lethal incidents in recent years, including an ambush in 2008 that left three female foreign aid workers and their Afghan driver dead. The Taliban accused them of being spies.
In April, lorries carrying fuel for Nato were set on fire in a protest by Logar residents, who claimed that a night raid by US forces had killed civilians. Then this month, a number of civilians were killed when their vehicle hit a roadside bomb in the province.
Mohammed Zahir Siddiqi, a village leader from Charkh and former chairman of the cultural and information department in Logar, said he supported the peace jirga "if it has a delegation from the Taliban". Like many here, his anger was largely directed at international forces.
"According to our constitution, no one can attack a man in his house or on his land. And according to the law, no one can attack or arrest anyone without the decision of the court. If someone enters your house without permission, you can kill him," he said.
The peace jirga comes at a time when both the Afghan government and the international community are trying to put a renewed emphasis on reconciliation with elements of the insurgency.
Low-level militants in particular are being called on to lay down their arms in exchange for jobs and vocational training. Rebel leaders may also be offered exile outside the country if they agree to stop fighting.
Although the Taliban have shunned this week's jirga and consistently denied taking part in any negotiations, a second insurgent group has already been involved in peace talks. Hizb-e-Islami, which has strong support in Logar, sent a delegation to Kabul in March, where it laid down a series of demands that included a timetable for the withdrawal of foreign troops.
The United States has said it backs reconciliation, but in public at least it rules out the prospect of striking a deal with senior insurgents, including the Taliban's spiritual leader, Mullah Mohammed Omar.
The chairman of the provincial council, Al Haj Abdul Hakim Sulamenkhil, claimed foreign troops had "only made problems" in the past nine years.
"Look, the police, army and Taliban are our brothers. When they are killing each other it means we are killing our brothers."
foreign.desk@thenational.ae
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Three stars
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Profile
Company: Libra Project
Based: Masdar City, ADGM, London and Delaware
Launch year: 2017
Size: A team of 12 with six employed full-time
Sector: Renewable energy
Funding: $500,000 in Series A funding from family and friends in 2018. A Series B round looking to raise $1.5m is now live.
Company Fact Box
Company name/date started: Abwaab Technologies / September 2019
Founders: Hamdi Tabbaa, co-founder and CEO. Hussein Alsarabi, co-founder and CTO
Based: Amman, Jordan
Sector: Education Technology
Size (employees/revenue): Total team size: 65. Full-time employees: 25. Revenue undisclosed
Stage: early-stage startup
Investors: Adam Tech Ventures, Endure Capital, Equitrust, the World Bank-backed Innovative Startups SMEs Fund, a London investment fund, a number of former and current executives from Uber and Netflix, among others.