Pakistan floods: a 'third' of country under water with recovery to cost $10 billion


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Relentless monsoon rains in Pakistan have left a third of the country under water, its climate minister said.

Flash floods have washed away roads, crops, infrastructure and bridges, killing at least 1,000 people in recent weeks.

Aid efforts were stepped up across Pakistan on Tuesday to help more than 33 million people affected, which is more than 15 per cent of the country's 220 million population.

Pakistan's Climate Change Minister Sherry Rehman said “literally a third” of the country was under water.

“To see the devastation on the ground is really mind-boggling,” she told AFP, comparing scenes to a dystopian film.

“When we send in water pumps, they say 'Where do we pump the water?' It's all one big ocean, there's no dry land to pump the water out.”

Damage could cost more than $10 billion if early estimates are correct, the country's planning minister said on Monday.

Ahsan Iqbal called the situation a “climate-induced humanitarian disaster of epic proportions”.

“I think it is going to be huge. So far, (a) very early, preliminary estimate is that it is big, it is higher than $10bn,” he told Reuters.

“So far we have lost 1,000 human lives. There is damage to almost nearly one million houses,” Mr Iqbal said at his office.

“People have actually lost their complete livelihood.”

UAE sends humanitarian aid to Pakistan — in pictures

  • The Ministry of Defence, represented by the Joint Operations Command, is overseeing the delivery of relief aid from the Emirates.
    The Ministry of Defence, represented by the Joint Operations Command, is overseeing the delivery of relief aid from the Emirates.
  • Hamad Alzaabi, the UAE Ambassador to Pakistan, accompanied by senior Pakistani government and National Disaster Management Authority officials in Islamabad, receives the first UAE aid flight to support those affected by floods and torrential rain in Pakistan. Images: UAE Embassy Pakistan
    Hamad Alzaabi, the UAE Ambassador to Pakistan, accompanied by senior Pakistani government and National Disaster Management Authority officials in Islamabad, receives the first UAE aid flight to support those affected by floods and torrential rain in Pakistan. Images: UAE Embassy Pakistan
  • The aid includes shelter materials, humanitarian goods food and medical parcels.
    The aid includes shelter materials, humanitarian goods food and medical parcels.
  • The aid is being delivered following directives issued by President Sheikh Mohamed to provide all forms of support to Pakistan.
    The aid is being delivered following directives issued by President Sheikh Mohamed to provide all forms of support to Pakistan.

He said the floods were worse than those that hit Pakistan in 2010, for which the UN issued its largest disaster appeal yet.

The minister said it might take five years to rebuild and rehabilitate the nation, while in the near term it will be confronted with acute food shortages.

To mitigate those, Finance Minister Miftah Ismail said Pakistan could consider importing vegetables from India.

The two neighbouring countries have not had any trade for a long time.

“We can consider importing vegetables from India,” Mr Ismail told local Geo News TV, adding other possible sources of food imports included Turkey and Iran.

Food prices have increased because of flooded crops and impassable roads.

India Prime Minister Narendra Modi said he was saddened by the devastation caused by the floods.

Social media users posted videos showing stranded people and whole families washed away by floodwater. Reuters was unable to verify the footage independently.

Southern, south-western and northern Pakistan have been the hardest hit by the floods, which have swept large swathes of farmland and stored crops, also isolating the regions from rest of the country for the last several days.

Tens of thousands of families have left their homes for safer places, moved in with their relatives, or to state-run camps, while others have been spending nights in the open, waiting for help including tents, food and medicine.

'The world owes Pakistan'

Pakistan has appealed for international help and some countries have already sent in supplies and rescue teams.

The nation's foreign minister told Reuters on Sunday he hoped financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund would provide aid, taking the economic cost of the floods into account.

However, Mr Iqbal said any formal requests for financial help would need to wait until the scale of the damage was known, something Pakistan was now evaluating with partners, including the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank.

Mr Iqbal said the world owed Pakistan, which was a victim of climate change caused by the “irresponsible development of the developed world”.

“Our carbon footprint is lowest in the world,” he said. “The international community has a responsibility to help us, upgrade our infrastructure, to make our infrastructure more climate resilient, so that we don't have such losses every three, four, five years,” he said.

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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