TEL AVIV, ISRAEL // The savage fighting between Israel and Hamas is escalating in Gaza, but even through the fog of war, a few endgame scenarios can nonetheless be glimpsed.
For the moment, the deadlock is well-entrenched: As long as the crippling blockade of Gaza remains in place, Hamas says it will continue firing rockets at Israel – terrifying but mostly ineffectual, thanks to the “Iron Dome” defence system. Israel says the blockade must stay to stop a terrorist government from importing yet more weapons.
There is not much pressure yet on either side to stop – even in Gaza, where more than 1,300 people, mainly civilians, have been killed, amid widespread devastation. An Egyptian-led ceasefire plan more than two weeks ago, which Israel accepted and was a straight return to the status quo before this current round – was rejected by Hamas, and there was little criticism of that decision in Gaza. Such is the hatred of the air, land and sea blockade in the strip – in addition, perhaps, to the fear of Hamas.
If Palestinian casualties keep rising, the world could pressure Israel to stop, even though that would leave Hamas with a victory of sorts. While it is too early to say how all this will end, but here are some ways it could play out:
1) Israel declares victory and leaves.
Israeli leaders generally describe the ground operation in Gaza as intended to destroy the Hamas-built tunnels leading into Israel, almost certainly for purposes of attack. Once that job is done, Israel could well pull out and try to declare victory or even a unilateral ceasefire. The hope would be that the respite from the devastation visited on Gaza would compel Hamas to think again and quietly accept a return to the way it was: no rocket fire on Israel; no airstrikes and shelling of Gaza. This probably wouldn’t work. Hamas has put Gazans through so much that they certainly feel they must have something to show for their efforts in the form of an easing of the blockade. Rocket fire would continue and the hostilities would swiftly resume.
Despite huge reservations, Israel may just end up reoccupying the strip. .
2) The Palestinian Authority takes over the border with Egypt.
Hamas wants an end to the blockade that was imposed by Israel after the militants won the 2006 Palestinian parliament election, were sidelined by Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas, and then seized Gaza in 2007. Some minor things are conceivable, like a small extension of the rights of fishermen to venture out to sea. But Israel will not allow true sea access or an airport as long as Hamas controls the strip. The concern is that even bigger rockets and weapons would stream in. Israel also won’t soon open its borders to Gazans, remembering too well the suicide bombings of a decade ago.
There is one plausible way to greatly ease the siege: Open the southern border near the town of Rafah leading to Egypt, and put the Gaza side not under the control of Hamas but under the Palestinian Authority.
3) The Palestinian Authority takes over Gaza.
Somehow forgotten in the current discourse is that the blockade was imposed after the Hamas takeover. It was probably intended both to be punitive – an incentive to the people to rebel, which has proven impractical under the militants – and to prevent Hamas from arming further. At this point, it is mainly about this latter goal of reining in Hamas. Alternatively, Hamas could call the world’s bluff by accepting the conditions presented to it by the world community: recognise Israel, adhere to previous agreements, renounce violence. Acquiescence here would also probably eliminate the blockade. But no one expects Hamas to do this; it would cease to be Hamas. Either way, the principle’s the same: No Hamas – no blockade.
West Bank-based Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas and Hamas signed a “unity government” deal two months ago that would have actually achieved this on paper – but few seriously expected Hamas to give up its control of Gaza.
* Associated Press
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
FIXTURES
Saturday, November 3
Japan v New Zealand
Wales v Scotland
England v South Africa
Ireland v Italy
Saturday, November 10
Italy v Georgia
Scotland v Fiji
England v New Zealand
Wales v Australia
Ireland v Argentina
France v South Africa
Saturday, November 17
Italy v Australia
Wales v Tonga
England v Japan
Scotland v South Africa
Ireland v New Zealand
Saturday, November 24
|Italy v New Zealand
Scotland v Argentina
England v Australia
Wales v South Africa
Ireland v United States
France v Fiji
