The United States is considering a stepped-up military presence in Africa to pursue ISIL jihadists looking for new havens after the fall of their "caliphate," American officials say.
After ISIL lost its de facto capital Raqqa in Syria this month, and its Iraqi stronghold of Mosul earlier, the group "has aspirations to establish a larger presence" in Africa, the US military's top officer Gen Joseph Dunford said on Monday.
From Libya to Egypt's Sinai, to East Africa and West Africa the extremists have already posed a threat, Gen Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told a press conference.
He was discussing the October 4 clash in Niger, West Africa, that cost the lives of four American soldiers.
Along with five Nigerien troops, the US soldiers died on the Niger-Mali border in an attack carried out by locals associated with ISIL, according to Gen Dunford.
The incident shocked many Americans unaware of the hundreds-strong US military presence in that country.
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Read more: Deadly attack on US special forces highlight terror resurgence in Africa's Sahel
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Gen Dunford said the military will make recommendations to president Donald Trump and Defence Secretary Jim Mattis "for the allocation of forces that meet what we see as the threat, what we anticipate the threat to be".
On Tuesday he meets military chiefs from 75 countries "to talk about the next phase of the campaign" against ISIL.
Speaking to reporters following a meeting with Mr Mattis last Friday, Senator Lindsey Graham, a member of the Senate's Armed Services Committee, said bluntly: "The war is morphing. We're going to see more actions in Africa, not less."
After the Middle East, Africa already has the greatest presence of American special forces. Official figures show more than 1,300 of the troops are deployed there.
These elite units train local forces in counter-terrorism and "will only accompany those forces when the prospects of enemy contact is unlikely", Gen Dunford said.
These rules of engagement "are going to change when it comes to counterterrorism operations," Mr Graham said.
He hinted that American troops would be authorised to shoot first on "terrorist" targets, which is not the case now.
A growing threat
The European Union's presidency also warned this month that countries in that bloc must monitor "very carefully" a growing ISIL threat in North Africa, where fighters have relocated.
Gen Dunford said the war is moving to multiple arenas.
"I'm not sure I'm ready to say it's shifting just to Africa. We're dealing with a challenge that exists from West Africa to Southeast Asia," he said.
"I believe ISIS will attempt to establish a physical presence outside of Iraq and Syria" after losing Mosul and Raqqa, the general added, using another acronym for ISIL.
"That's exactly why we're conducting the kinds of operations we're conducting in Niger, to ensure that local forces have the capability to prevent that from happening."
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Read more:
Soldier deaths in Niger turning into Trump's own Benghazi
US must step up support for operation against West Africa militants, France says
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The US supports with aerial refuelling and intelligence France's Operation Barkhane against extremists in five Sahel nations: Mauritania, Mali, Chad, Niger and Burkina Faso.
In all, the US military has about 6,000 personnel in 53 African countries, Gen Dunford said.
According to a report to Congress by Gen Thomas Waldhauser, who heads the US Africa Command (AFRICOM), the American presence is notable in Chad, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Somalia, Uganda, Rwanda and Kenya.
The numbers of US special forces varies but the Niger contingent of about 800 is currently the largest in any one country on the continent.
Gen Dunford vowed the US will remain, despite the four fatalities in Niger.
"Our intent is to continue operations there," he said.
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Kathryn Hawkes of House of Hawkes on being a good guest (because we’ve all had bad ones)
- Arrive with a thank you gift, or make sure you have one for your host by the time you leave.
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
The biog
Year of birth: 1988
Place of birth: Baghdad
Education: PhD student and co-researcher at Greifswald University, Germany
Hobbies: Ping Pong, swimming, reading
