Al Shabab wants to establish its own rule in Somalia based on a strict interpretation of Sharia. AP
Al Shabab wants to establish its own rule in Somalia based on a strict interpretation of Sharia. AP
Al Shabab wants to establish its own rule in Somalia based on a strict interpretation of Sharia. AP
Al Shabab wants to establish its own rule in Somalia based on a strict interpretation of Sharia. AP

Somalia's President Mohamud says talks with Al Shabab could bring peace


Damien McElroy
  • English
  • Arabic

Somalia's President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has said talks with Al Shabab are his preferred endgame for peace in the country but without negotiations the militia could be defeated militarily.

The Mogadishu government has set a one-year target for expelling the Al Qaeda-linked Al Shabab militant group from the country.

"I believe we will defeat Al Shabab militarily," Mr Mohamud said at a Royal United Services Institute meeting in London on Tuesday.

"We don't have any indication that Al Shabab want dialogue with the Somali government [but] if that happened tomorrow it's our preferred option.

"At the end it may end up with dialogue, rather than killing and maiming and chasing away."

Remaining African Union peacekeepers are poised to leave next December, with the Somali National Army set to start taking over checkpoints from international forces, including at Villa Somalia, the presidential palace, from next month.

Al Shabab has been waging an insurgency against the Somali government since 2006 in a bid to establish its own rule based on a strict interpretation of Sharia.

Mr Mohamud, in his second term as President, said in August he wanted to eliminate the insurgents by early next year.

"The end game is December 2024 when all the Atmis [African Union peacekeeping] forces have to leave the country," he told Rusi.

Somalia's President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud says he wants to eliminate Al Shabab by early next year. Reuters
Somalia's President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud says he wants to eliminate Al Shabab by early next year. Reuters

The focus was on stamping out "the residual" Al Shabab, he said.

That task had been made more difficult by recent fatal flooding in Somalia, he said, although the floods have also made it harder for the militants to spread landmines.

Mr Mohamud's recent drive against Al Shabab began in August last year, with the military rallying behind clan-based militias in central Somalia.

That rare collaboration helped produce the most significant territorial gains over the militants since the mid-2010s but Al Shabab has continued to stage fatal attacks on military and civilian targets.

The latest phase is set to push into southern Somalia, the traditional stronghold of Al Shabab, where Mr Mohamud described progress as "encouraging".

He said there was an acute need for the international community to help Somalia with its military efforts and to build up its state institutions, provide basic services such as health and education, and reconstruct its infrastructure.

The country has also over the years experienced bouts of drought and floods that have led to thousands being displaced.

Mr Mohamud said flooding and other natural disasters related to climate change are holding up the offensive in parts of the country.

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

MATCH DETAILS

Chelsea 4 

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Updated: November 21, 2023, 6:56 PM