Kenya's top security official has warned that the war in Sudan, which has now gone on for more than 100 days, is creating a power vacuum that may allow terrorist groups to gain a foothold in the country.
“When you have this level of fragility, there is also a huge risk of extremism and a multiplication of bands and criminal groups,” Kenya’s National Security Adviser Monica Juma told The National.
The war, which broke out on April 15, has pitted the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces – loyal to Gen Mohamed Dagalo – against the Sudanese military, led by Gen Abdel Fattah Al Burhan.
The power struggle between the rival generals ignited a conflict that has spread throughout the country.
The two sides have ignored repeated ceasefire efforts and fought to a stalemate.
Originally the conflict was confined to the capital Khartoum and neighbouring Omdurman, but it has since spread to several parts of the country, including the western region of Darfur, an area that has seen decades of violence.
“With its eruption in Darfur and the tensions we are seeing in other regions, including fighting in North Kordofan, in other areas such as Blue Nile, there is a real risk of fragmentation of Sudan,” Ms Juma said on the sidelines of the Aspen Security Forum.
And that is something regional powers hope to avoid, she said.
The East African bloc, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, has made overtures to Gen Dagalo and Gen Al Burhan, hoping to negotiate a truce. So far, it has been unsuccessful.
The US and Saudi Arabia have also tried and failed to negotiate a lasting peace between the warring sides.
The Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project estimates that at least 2,800 people have been killed in more than three months of fighting.
The real death toll is probably much higher, as aid agencies and monitoring groups struggle to operate in the increasingly dangerous country.
The UN’s refugee agency estimates that more than 3.7 million Sudanese have been displaced within the country and at least 800,000 people have fled to neighbouring nations, creating a strain on some states.
Ms Juma, who has held ambassadorships and high-ranking government positions, fears the conflict will have a destabilising influence on the wider region.
“Beyond Sudan, it means that it is also accentuating the fragility of its neighbourhood,” she said. “Sudan has neighbours that are fragile.
"Some of them are in conflict, like Libya, Chad, CAR [the Central African Republic] or South Sudan, so there is a huge outflow of people as refugees in these countries, stressing them further.”
But Ms Juma's biggest concern is the increasing number of non-state actors who are joining the fight.
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Sudanese army soldiers, loyal to army chief Gen Abdel Fattah Al Burhan, pose for a picture at the Rapid Support Forces base in the Red Sea city of Port Sudan on April 16. AFP -
Smoke billows above residential buildings in Khartoum on April 16 as fighting in Sudan raged for a second day in battles between rival generals. AFP -
Sudanese greet army soldiers in Port Sudan on April 16. AFP -
Destroyed planes at Khartoum International Airport on April 17. Reuters -
People flee Khartoum during clashes between the paramilitary RSF and the army on April 19. Reuters -
A column of smoke rises behind buildings near the airport area in Khartoum on April 19 following the collapse of a 24-hour truce. AFP -
People flee their neighbourhoods amid fighting between the army and RSF in Khartoum on April 19. AFP -
Black smoke covers the sky above Khartoum on April 19. AFP -
Residential buildings damaged in fighting in Khartoum on April 20. AP -
Sudanese army soldiers sit on top of a tank in the Red Sea city of Port Sudan on April 20. AFP -
People carry Othman Mohamed, a senior general loyal to Gen Al Burhan, on their shoulders in Port Sudan on April 20. AFP -
A Sudanese evacuee is embraced after disembarking from a Spanish Air and Space Force plane at Torrejon de Ardoz Airbase, Spain, on April 24. Reuters -
People gather as they flee clashes between the RSF and the army in Khartoum on April 24. Reuters -
A member of the Saudi Royal Navy carries a child who was evacuated from Sudan, in Jeddah on April 24. Photo: SPA -
Greek citizens arrive in Greece from Sudan on board a military plane on April 25. AFP -
Ali Mazloum, a Lebanese citizen who was evacuated from Sudan, is welcomed upon his arrival at Beirut airport on April 25. Reuters -
Palestinian evacuees from Sudan arrive at Rafah crossing, between Egypt and the Gaza Strip on April 28. EPA -
Black smoke rises over Khartoum on April 28. AFP -
A woman and child evacuated from Sudan arrive in Abu Dhabi on April 29. Reuters -
Activists demonstrate in front of the White House in Washington, calling on the US to intervene to stop the fighting in Sudan on April 29. AFP -
Children fleeing Sudan arrive at Wadi Karkar bus station in Aswan, southern Egypt, on April 30. EPA -
Clouds of black smoke billow over Khartoum as fighting continues on May 1. Reuters -
A Sudanese refugee who crossed into Chad cooks a meal in a makeshift shelter at a camp in Koufroun, near Echbara, on May 1. AFP -
People board a Russian military aircraft during an evacuation operation at Khartoum airport on May 2. EPA -
A boy holds bullet cartridges as clashes between the RSF and the army continue in Khartoum on May 13. Reuters -
A Sudanese girl who fled the conflict in Sudan's Darfur region carries a pot on her way to collect water near the border between Sudan and Chad on May 12. Reuters -
Members of staff offload aid supplies provided by the World Health Organisation and UAE Aid from a plane that arrived from the Emirates at Port Sudan on May 5. AFP -
The UAE sent three aid planes to support the Sudanese people on May 8. Photo: Wam -
RSF fighters gather near the presidential palace in Khartoum on May 1. AFP -
A man inspects the damage as he walks near a destroyed building and car in the Azhari district of Khartoum on June 6. AFP -
Wounded Sudanese refugees who fled conflict in West Darfur receive medical support from Doctors Without Borders and health ministry staff at a hospital in Adre, Chad, on June 16. Reuters -
Evacuees from Sudan arrive at Baghdad International Airport on June 18. AFP -
Suad Fissa, 40, an asylum seeker and factory worker from Darfur, cries as she speaks about her missing children in Tel Aviv, Israel, on June 24. Reuters
“This portends a risk where we can begin to see networks between criminal gangs but also terror groups, particularly connecting to the Sahel groups and even as far as the eastern side of Africa and Al Shabab,” she said.
Ms Juma said the presence of outside actors could turn the war into an even more dangerous conflict that has far-reaching implications.
“This is not just a Sudan problem, it is not just a regional problem, it impacts a huge tract of Africa within the Sahel," she said.
"And when you talk about terrorism, then you begin to talk about international, transnational terror networks beyond Africa."
