The war in Ukraine is proof that Russia is a diminishing global power, said a leading geopolitical forecaster speaking at the World Government Summit in Dubai.
Russia’s inability to be able to conquer Ukraine and take the city of Kyiv showed it was not the force of old, said George Friedman.
The conflict has also seen a resurgence in the global influence of the US, whose sanctions against Russia have shown it can successfully wage war without firing a bullet.
He also predicted China’s influence would wane over the next 50 years, as its economy was beginning to show signs of trouble.
“We’ve discovered Russia is no longer a great power and its economy is waning,” said Mr Friedman.
“Its military has shown itself to be incapable of adequate planning for the execution of war with a country as weak as Ukraine.
“We also know they couldn’t survive the sanctions imposed on them without stumbling.”
He was speaking during a presentation at the World Government Summit entitled 'The World in 2050: Characteristics of New Rising Powers'.
He predicted that Poland, Japan and Turkey would be among the fastest rising global powers.
Russia’s reputation had already been damaged by events of 1991, when the Soviet Union collapsed, he said.
Mr Friedman also predicted the next 50 years would continue to see Russia struggling on the geopolitical stage, as the sanctions invoked over the invasion of Ukraine had highlighted how weak the rouble was compared to the dollar.
On the other hand, the US was emerging with its reputation restored over the conflict, he said.
“There has been a re-emergence of American power, not from a military viewpoint but an economic one,” he said.
“The power of the dollar was there for all to see when it was denied to the Russians.
“It crushed Russia’s ability to wage war because wars are expensive.”
He said the US had shown itself to be a global leader as it was very much at the head of a coalition to reduce the capabilities of Russia.
“The US discovered it could wage war without shooting,” said Mr Friedman.
“This was the discovery of a new kind of power, the capacity had always been there but we just didn’t know [how effective it would be].”
He predicted the next 50 years would see a reduction in China’s global influence, because it was about to experience an economic decline similar to that of the US in the 1930s and Japan in the early 1990s, he said.
China was already showing signs of mirroring the economic meltdowns of those economies, which had decades of huge prosperity before collapsing, Mr Friedman said.
“When the US emerged as a global economic power in 1890, it did so by selling low-cost products to the world,” he said.
“It collapsed after about 40 years, just like Japan did in 1991.
“The Chinese economy is 35 per cent made up of real estate and we are seeing Chinese companies starting to default on their debts.”
He said people would laugh at the thought of the Chinese economy crumbling but that was exactly the reaction before it happened to US and Japanese markets of the past.
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A woman walks past a poster depicting Russian President Vladimir Putin holding his own body, as Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues, in Sofia, Bulgaria. Reuters -
A man walks past a residential area destroyed by a rocket strike in Kyiv. Getty Images -
Ukraine refugees wait in the train station in Przemysl, near the Polish-Ukrainian border. More than 3.8 million have fled Ukraine since Russia's invasion. AFP -
Ukrainian civilians receive weapons training at a shooting range in Brno, Czech Republic. EPA -
A Ukrainian special police officer patrols near a destroyed building during the night curfew in Kharkiv. AP Photo -
A Ukrainian serviceman walks past the wreck of a Russian tank in Lukyanivka, Kyiv. Reuters -
Ukrainian Air Force jets take part in a defence drill over an unidentified location. Reuters -
Valentina Demura, 70, near the ruins of her home in apartment block in the besieged southern port city of Mariupol. Reuters -
A message of support for Ukraine at the 94th Academy Awards in Hollywood, Los Angeles, California. Reuters -
The widow of sergeant Kostiantyn Deriuhin stands at her husband's grave after his funeral at Lychakiv cemetery in Lviv, Ukraine. Reuters -
A walk amid the ruins after a Russian attack in Byshiv on the outskirts of Kyiv, Ukraine. AP -
A soldier of the Ukrainian territorial defence forces gives a salute during a break in digging a foxhole at Kalynivka, on the outskirts of Kyiv, Ukraine. AP -
A bust adorned with a headband in the colours of the Ukraine flag at a checkpoint in Kyiv, Ukraine. AP -
The Cheremosh Folk Song and Dance Ensemble performs in the streets of the Old Town in Lviv, Ukraine. Getty -
Eugene Grigorash says goodbye to his wife Victoria Grigorash and their seven-month-old son Roman as their bus leaves Lviv on its way to Poland. Getty -
People head for an air raid shelter after sirens sound across Lviv in Ukraine. Getty -
A pro-Ukraine rally at the Lincoln Memorial in Washington. EPA -
The aftermath of an air strike on the western Ukrainian city of Lviv. AFP -
A protester weeps as she takes part in a 'mothers' march' for Ukraine, in New York. AFP -
Local people share a basement of a historical building which is being used as a bomb shelter during an air raid warning in Lviv. EPA -
US President Joe Biden kisses a child while meeting refugees of Russia's war with Ukraine at PGE Narodowy Stadium in Warsaw, Poland. AFP -
A Ukrainian soldier stands guard at Independence Square in Kyiv. AFP -
Municipal employees cover the city's monuments with sand bags to protect them from strikes in Kharkiv. AFP -
Misha, 5, who lost his mother some weeks ago and got injured during a Russian strike, is helped by his grandfather to dress up in the basement of a hospital in Mykolaiv. AFP -
Ukrainian refugees rest in the ticket hall of Przemysl Glowny train station. Reuters -
A woman walks past destroyed houses in the village of Krasylivka outside Kyiv. Reuters -
A man climbs up a ladder to examine his destroyed house in the village of Krasylivka outside Kyiv. Reuters -
Damage inside an Orthodox Church building in Yasnohorodka, on the outskirts of Kyiv. AP -
A Ukrainian soldier at a psychiatric hospital damaged by a Russian bombing, in Mykolaiv. AP -
Displaced people from Dnipro arrive in Lviv, in western Ukraine. Millions are internally displaced. Getty Images -
A destroyed school in Kharkiv. AFP -
A Ukrainian fighter on the front line in the north Kyiv region. Reuters -
A resident walks past blazing buildings and vehicles after a Russian artillery strike in Kharkiv. AFP -
Black smoke billows from a fuel depot near Kyiv that was used by the Ukrainian Army before it was hit by during a Russian strike. AP -
Masha, 26, checks her mobile phone at an air raid shelter inside a Kyiv metro station. Reuters -
A market on fire in Kharkiv after a Russian attack. AP -
People try to recover items from a shop set on fire during a Russian attack in Kharkiv. AP -
Nastya Kuzyk, 20, who was injured in an attack on Chernihiv, is comforted by her mother Svitlana, 50, as she recovers in a Kyiv hospital. AP
