The world is at greater risk from wars and upheaval in 2022 than at the height of the Cold War, the UN Secretary-General António Guterres said on Friday.
The spread of Islamist terrorism in Africa, a climate crisis that is out of control and frequent coups have created a greater security threat than during the time of the nuclear arms race between the US and the former Soviet Union, the world’s chief diplomat told the Munich Security Conference.
“I am often asked whether we are in a new Cold War,” he said. “My answer is that the threat to global security is more complex and probably higher than at that time.”
Mr Guterres said Cold War systems in place to allow nations to discuss and defuse crises behind the scenes had been swept away and replaced with increased mistrust through inflammatory rhetoric and misinformation.
He cited increased tensions over Ukraine with thousands of Russian troops lined up on the border while the US leads efforts to find a diplomatic solution to prevent invasion.
“Miscommunication or miscalculation can make a minor incident between powers escalate out of control, causing incalculable harm.
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“With a concentration of Russian forces around Ukraine, I am deeply concerned about heightened tensions and increased speculation about a military conflict in Europe.
“I still think it will not happen. But if it did, it would be catastrophic.
"It’s high time to seriously de-escalate."
Mr Guterres quoted the UN charter. “All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations.”
The conflicts between major powers were accompanied by tensions elsewhere in the world fuelled by smaller groups with rapidly shifting alliances and agendas.
Coups that used to happen once every two years were taking place every “couple of weeks” in 2022, he said.
Mr Guterres said he came with a warning that the world had become a more dangerous and complex place since he last spoke at the conference three years ago.
The threat of global terror loomed over the world with extremist groups gaining a foothold in parts of Africa, he said.
In Syria, ISIS is using children as human shields while Al Qaeda and its affiliates are “regaining great power to cause harm”, he said.
“The risks of terrorist spill over out of Afghanistan, as well as the alarming spread of terrorism in some African countries show how adept terrorists are at exploiting power vacuums and subverting fragile states.”
"We need robust African peace enforcement and counter-terrorist operations, mandated by the UN Security Council under Chapter VII of the Charter, with stable and predictable funding," he said. "The current situation is unsustainable."
Africa is also set to bear the brunt of devastation from climate change that will force people to leave their homes in search of safety. “This could further destabilise entire regions,” said the UN chief.
Advances in technology had also allowed propaganda and conspiracy theories to spread like wildfire with hate speech and racism adding fuel to the flames. Wars were hybrid fought on both the battlefield and online.
“All these threats put human rights and democracy under serious risk,” he told the conference. “We need a surge in diplomacy for peace, a surge in political will for peace, and a surge in investment in peace.”
