Paris // The mood was gloomy among the diplomats gathered on Monday in Paris at the invitation of French foreign minister Jean-Marc Ayrault to discuss how to bring peace to Libya.
With Mr Ayrault were representatives from Britain, Germany, Italy, Qatar, the UAE, the United States together with the UN special envoy to Libya, Martin Kobler, and European Union foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini, all perplexed by a simple problem: The capture of Libya’s key oil ports last month by Field Marshall Khalifa Haftar, commander of the army of the national parliament, the House of Representatives in Tobruk.
This operation, staged between September 11 and September 14 by Haftar’s Libya National Army wrestled control of the ports of El Sidra, Ras Lanuf, Brega and Zueitina from control of a militia, the Petroleum Facilities Guard loyal to parliament’s rival, the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli.
At a stroke, the operation changed the balance of power in Libya, leaving parliament controlling the Sirte Basin, which is home to more than two thirds of the country’s oil.
The first international reaction to the ports operation was condemnation: On September 12 the United States, France, Germany, Britain, Italy and Spain signed a joint statement warning the operation would invite further fighting, and demanding Field Marshall Haftar withdraw.
The commander ignored the demand, and since the statement, two things have happened. First, the GNA, based in Tripoli, has ruled out an operation to take back the ports, bringing temporary peace to the region. Second, oil exports have surged.
Mustafa Sanallah, respected chief of the National Oil Corporation (NOC) announced on September 14 his support for Field Marshall Haftar’s move.
By September 28 Bloomberg was reporting that Libya’s oil exports which had been 260,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August had surged to 485,000 bpd. The same day, Germany’s Wintershall oil company announced resumption of deliveries of 35,000 barrels a day to the port of Zueitina the first since last November.
Then on Tuesday, Arabian Gulf Oil Company (Agoco), the largest state-owned oil firm in eastern Libya, announced production had increased to 320,000 bpd from 290,000 bpd a week before. Mr Sanallah said in September he hopes that production will reach 900,000 bpd by the end of the year.
This is a long way from the 1.4 million bpd Libya enjoyed before civil war broke out in July 2014, but is a significant boost to national revenues.
The problem for the international community is that this production is controlled by the House of Representatives in Tobruk, which has refused to cooperate with the GNA in Tripoli.
In August, the House voted against a proposed unity cabinet offered by GNA prime minister Fayez Al Serraj, with many demanding that Field Marshall Haftar remain as army commander, a demand Al Serraj refused. He knows this demand is likely to be unacceptable to Libya Dawn, a coalition of militias including Islamists and fighters from Misurata who control Tripoli.
Field Marshall Haftar, for his part, has rejected the idea of working with the GNA. Promoted from general to field marshal by the House following the oil ports operation, he told the Associated Press on September 28 that the army recognises only the parliament in Tobruk, not the GNA.
The outside world is itself split. While the United States, European Union, Arab League and African Union recognise the GNA as Libya’s legitimate government, other states, including Egypt, UAE and Russia, recognise the House, although the UAE is in contact with both sides. France, while formally recognising the GNA, revealed in July that it deploys special forces to aid Gen Haftar without seeking the GNA permission.
Mr Ayrault this week called for compromise, telling Paris-based TV5 Monde on Monday that the GNA needs “to find a place” for Gen Haftar, without spelling out what that place should be.
The urgency among diplomats is that peace in the oilfields may not last. The most powerful GNA force, Misurata militias, are for the moment fighting ISIL for control of Sirte, backed by US air strikes. The Pentagon said in September that it expects the operation to conclude soon, which will leave Misurata forces facing those of Field Marshall Haftar close to the oil ports, with many fearing a new round of fighting for Libya’s most precious rescource.
foreign.desk@thenational.ae
Analysis
Members of Syria's Alawite minority community face threat in their heartland after one of the deadliest days in country’s recent history. Read more
Company%20Profile
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Emergency
Director: Kangana Ranaut
Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Anupam Kher, Shreyas Talpade, Milind Soman, Mahima Chaudhry
Rating: 2/5
The specs
Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel
Power: 579hp
Torque: 859Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh825,900
On sale: Now
The specs
Engine: Dual 180kW and 300kW front and rear motors
Power: 480kW
Torque: 850Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh359,900 ($98,000)
On sale: Now
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20HyveGeo%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Abdulaziz%20bin%20Redha%2C%20Dr%20Samsurin%20Welch%2C%20Eva%20Morales%20and%20Dr%20Harjit%20Singh%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ECambridge%20and%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%208%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESustainability%20%26amp%3B%20Environment%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%24200%2C000%20plus%20undisclosed%20grant%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EVenture%20capital%20and%20government%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh132,000 (Countryman)
A State of Passion
Directors: Carol Mansour and Muna Khalidi
Stars: Dr Ghassan Abu-Sittah
Rating: 4/5
'The Ice Road'
Director: Jonathan Hensleigh
Stars: Liam Neeson, Amber Midthunder, Laurence Fishburne
2/5
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
FIGHT%20CARD
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Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
The Details
Kabir Singh
Produced by: Cinestaan Studios, T-Series
Directed by: Sandeep Reddy Vanga
Starring: Shahid Kapoor, Kiara Advani, Suresh Oberoi, Soham Majumdar, Arjun Pahwa
Rating: 2.5/5
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
If you go...
Fly from Dubai or Abu Dhabi to Chiang Mai in Thailand, via Bangkok, before taking a five-hour bus ride across the Laos border to Huay Xai. The land border crossing at Huay Xai is a well-trodden route, meaning entry is swift, though travellers should be aware of visa requirements for both countries.
Flights from Dubai start at Dh4,000 return with Emirates, while Etihad flights from Abu Dhabi start at Dh2,000. Local buses can be booked in Chiang Mai from around Dh50
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MATCH INFO
Champions League quarter-final, first leg
Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester City, Tuesday, 11pm (UAE)
Matches can be watched on BeIN Sports
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Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
