Emmys 2023 nomination predictions: Succession, Ted Lasso and Harry & Meghan lead the way

There could be a real-life Roy family battle if Brian Cox, Kieran Culkin and Jeremy Strong are all nominated in the Lead Actor category for Drama Series

Succession is one of the favourites to take home awards at this year's Emmy's. Photo: HBO

With 43 categories for acting, writing and directing, the Emmys are one of the biggest award ceremonies on the Hollywood calendar.

This year is expected to be one of the tightest races for a long time, not least because of the quality of shows over the past 12 months, but also because numerous leads in the same show will likely be competing against one another.

The stars of Succession, HBO's hit show about the battling Roy family, Brian Cox (Logan Roy), Kieran Culkin (Roman Roy) and Jeremy Strong (Kendall Roy) are all expected to be nominated in the Lead Actor (Drama Series) category.

Similarly, both Steve Martin and Martin Short could earn nominations in the Lead Actor (Comedy Series) category for Only Murders in the Building and Brad Pitt and Nathan Lane could go head-to-head in Guest Actor (Comedy Series).

Voting is currently underway until Monday, and nominations will be announced on July 12.

Here are some of the stars and shows we predict will make the final cut.

Drama Series

Pedro Pascal and Bella Ramsey in The Last of Us. Both actors are expected to receive nominations for the hit show. Photo: HBO

This category offers up an embarrassment of riches thanks to some outstanding television this year.

Succession is one of the leading shows this year as well, having scooped five Golden Globes and 13 Emmys previously, winning in this category last year.

The Crown season five, while not considered the strongest by audiences, comes into the race a 10-time Emmy winner. HBO could be celebrating big if their productions The Last of Us, House of the Dragon and fan favourite The White Lotus all get nominated, while Yellowstone, it’s spin-off 1923 and Apple TV+ show Bad Sisters are strong contenders.

Likely to be nominated: Succession, The Last of Us, The White Lotus, Yellowstone

Lead Actor in a Drama Series

In the Lead Actor (Drama Series) category, we could see the fictional Roy family go head-to-head with Kieran Culkin, Jeremy Strong and Brian Cox likely nominees. AP

This is the category all eyes will be on when the nominations are announced, owing to the Succession factor.

Cox has not won an Emmy for playing media patriarch Logan Roy, losing out to Jeremy Strong in 2020, so voters may consider it to be his year to be recognised.

In the year of Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, the television academy may be feeling nostalgic enough to recognise Harrison Ford for 1923, as Ford has never won an Emmy.

Similarly, Pedro Pascal’s excellent performance in The Last of Us, not to mention his widespread popularity, could secure him a nomination. Outsiders include Diego Luna for Andor and Kevin Costner for Yellowstone.

Likely to be nominated: Kieran Culkin, Brian Cox, Pedro Pascal, Jeremy Strong

Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Melanie Lynskey, star of Yellowjackets. AFP

Sarah Snook’s Golden Globe and Sag award for playing Shiv Roy in Succession virtually ensures her place on the list, among a host of strong competitors.

Bella Ramsey for The Last of Us and Imelda Staunton for The Crown must also be considered lock-ins.

Yellowjackets has been a hit from the start with Melanie Lynskey, who plays grown-up Shauna Shipman coming into the race having already won Best Actress in a Drama Series at the Critics' Choice Television Awards and Hollywood Critics Association Awards and was nominated in the this category at last year’s Emmys.

Other contenders might include Keri Russell for Netflix’s The Diplomat and Sharon Horgan for Bad Sisters.

Likely to be nominated: Sarah Snook, Bella Ramsey, Melanie Lynsky, Emma D’Arcy

Comedy Series

Fan favourite Ted Lasso has won in the Comedy Series category for the past two years, but faces strong contention from The Bear. Apple TV+

Another category that’s going to be close owing to the plethora of comedy shows including Ted Lasso, What We Do in the Shadows, Wednesday, The Bear and more.

Having won in this category for the past two years, Ted Lasso could score a hat trick thanks to the emotional resonance of the third and final season.

The Bear, with its Golden Globe and Sag triumphs this year is another strong contender, while Only Murders in the Building, The Marvelous Mrs Maisel and Apple TV+ show Shrinking all have a case for inclusion on the list.

If an upset comes for Ted Lasso, it will likely be in the shape of Abbott Elementary, which has won an incredible 37 major awards since its 2021 debut.

Likely to be nominated: Ted Lasso, The Bear, Abbott Elementary, Barry

Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Steve Martin and Martin Short are likely to be nominated for Only Murders in the Building. Photo: Hulu

This category is stacked with talent, with The Bear’s Jeremy Allen White and Ted Lasso’s Jason Sudeikis the frontrunners for inclusion, and White won this year’s Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy.

Other names likely to be nominated are Steve Martin and Martin Short for Only Murders in the Building and Bill Hader for the fourth and final season of hitman comedy Barry and Jason Segel for Shrinking.

Outliers include Nicholas Hoult for The Great, Sylvester Stallone for Tulsa King and Donald Glover for Atlanta.

Likely to be nominated: Jeremy Allen White, Jason Sudeikis, Steve Martin, Jason Segel

Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Abbott Elementary creator and star Quinta Brunson will almost certainly be nominated for Lead Actress in a Comedy Series. AFP

Abbot Elementary’s charming lead actress and show creator Quinta Brunson goes into the race a firm favourite, not only to be nominated, but to win. She’s coming off her Golden Globes win for Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy.

Her biggest challenges come from Rachel Brosnahan in The Marvelous Mrs Maisel, which wrapped up its fifth and final season this year, as well as Christina Applegate for Dead to Me.

Jenna Ortega for Wednesday is a likely nominee, as are Elle Fanning for The Great and Selena Gomez for Only Murders in the Building.

Likely to be nominated: Quinta Brunson, Rachel Brosnahan, Selena Gomez, Natasha Lyonne

Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Series

The Duke and Duchess of Sussex's Netflix documentary Harry & Meghan could receive a nomination in the Outstanding Documentary of Nonfiction Series category. Photo: Netflix

Netflix’s Harry & Meghan will likely be nominated, alongside FX’s Dear Mama: The Saga of Afeni and Tupac Shakur, HBO’s 100 Foot Wave and The Last Movie Stars from CNN.

Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Special

There are likely to be plenty of famous names and faces in this category as Pamela Anderson, Michael J Fox, Selena Gomez and Lizzo could all secure a nomination for Pamela: A Love Story, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Selena Gomez: My Mind & Me and Love, Lizzo, respectively.

Guest Actor in a Comedy Series

This highly competitive category will likely see Brad Pitt for Dave, Nathan Lane for Only Murders in the Building and John Leguizamo for The Daily Show earn nominations.