Latest: Dubai population to surge to nearly 6m in 20 years amid urban transformation
The Dubai 2040 Urban Master Plan, an outline of how the emirate will be developed over the next 20 years, envisages large-scale changes to the landscape and skyline.
The wide-ranging vision aims to provide the best quality of life for Dubai's residents and pave the way for the next major residential and economic developments in the city.
It is the seventh plan of its kind to be implemented in the emirate since 1960.
The scheme divides the city into five key areas of development, each focused on building on Dubai's strengths.
Deira and Bur Dubai remain the beating heart of tradition, while Downtown Dubai and Business Bay act as the emirate's financial hub.
Dubai Marina and JBR are at the forefront of tourism and entertainment and Expo 2020 is the international gateway for exhibitions and events, with Dubai Silicon Oasis a knowledge and innovation centre.
The National talked to experts to assess some of the ways the Dubai 2040 plan will shape the future of the city.
A version of this article was first published in March 2021
Offering a glimpse of ‘what’s next’
As master plans go, it's easy to understand and people can relate to it, according to Gurminder Singh Sagoo, client director at professional services company WSP in the Middle East, who has seen many such projects in his long career as an urban planner.
“If you Google the 2040 master plan today, what you will see is social media really picking up on it and talking about it. If you look at the kind of people talking about it, it's not urban planners like myself, or engineering consultants or architects."
"It's everyday people, and that's what really impactful about the master plan,” Mr Sagoo said.
He said it will further encourage what the people of Dubai are used to – growth.
“It gives them the 'what next' and helps them visualise a thriving economy and that's looking to diversify and that gives consumer confidence,” he said.
Plan will ‘unlock’ the potential of Bur Dubai and Deira
Once the centre of Dubai, the plan envisages a regeneration of ‘older’ areas like Bur Dubai and Deira and repopulating them with Emirati families in locations where local families lived previously.
It’s a plan that will ‘unlock’ new areas of the city – something that has happened in maturing cities all over the world.
Mr Sagoo cites the evolution of cities like London, Melbourne and New York, and how certain areas have been regenerated with new development and suddenly become fashionable and great places to live.
“The opportunity we have in Dubai is to skip the learning curve, so to speak, and not see areas become deprived, but take the opportunity to see those areas as new areas.
He said it's about striking a balance and retaining and celebrating Emirati cultural heritage, and also embedding it within the wider fabric of the city.
Projected population growth will help the economy
The plan sets out that the emirate’s population will surge from 3.3 million to 5.8 million in the next 20 years. While the overall plan addresses dealing with this increase, economists have said the growth will help spur the economy, as the city emerges from the pandemic.
“The angle of the plan which is most relevant for the macroeconomic outlook pertains to the demographic projections, in our view,” said Carla Slim, economist for the Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan at Standard Chartered Bank.
“This comes at a time where expat population is in focus following the dual crisis of Covid-19 and lower oil prices last year, which led to private sector job cuts. Unsupportive demographics could potentially delay the economic recovery in 2021.
“It appears, however, that Dubai’s expatriate population actually grew by 1.5 per cent in 2020, albeit at a slower pace than the 5.3 per cent growth registered in 2019.”
Daniel Richards, senior Mena economist, Emirates NBD, said the other key takeaway was the "focus on making the city increasingly easy to live in.
“Dubai already scores highly on indices of international cities by liveability and, if successfully implemented, these measures will ensure it remains so,” he said.
“As such, people will continue to be attracted to come and work in the new industries being developed here, making the ambitious population growth targets entirely achievable.”
New modes of transport
The "people-led" plan aims to improve interconnectivity by ensuring 55 per cent of the population will live within 800 metres of a main public transport station.
The master plan aims to encourage mass transit use, walking, cycling and the use of flexible means of transportation.
Hilal Halaoui, a partner with management consultants Strategy& and leader of the public sector practice in the Middle East, said the initiative will see significant changes in transport in the coming years, with technology set to take centre stage.
“If you look at research around the world, it says that 50 per cent of people who are born today are unlikely to drive a car in the future,” said Mr Halaoui.
“If you look at the plan and what they're testing already in Dubai, they want to be at the forefront when it comes to transportation. For people, it means more convenience in terms of moving from point A to point B, but also more self-sufficiency within these communities.”
Mr Sagoo said there’s an opportunity in going beyond linking people to stations, but also to create spaces where public stations interface with the wider public realm so they are seamless.
“We have the opportunity to create iconic urban places from these transport nodes – places where work is at one node and home is at the other,” he said.
Future is green and healthy
The plan sets out to improve the quality of life, with the doubling of green and leisure areas, in addition to public parks, to create more areas where people can exercise.
Mr Halaoui said there has been a clear strategy from authorities in Dubai to focus on the people in the city.
“While there was a lot of work being done on buildings and megaprojects, the belief in the individual comes very strong in the plan,” he said.
“There's a clear focus on health and lifestyle. The increase in green spaces and cycling lanes is all to create a lifestyle in Dubai that focuses on the individual.”
Mr Sagoo said it’s part of Dubai’s growth as a city, in terms of what it offers its residents, and it’s led by the population.
“It would be interesting to see how many people in Dubai do a Google search for wadi walks and campsites today. I believe it will be 100 per cent higher than last year, which would have been 100 per cent higher than the year before,” he said.
“I think the demographics of our population is changing, becoming more mature.
"The expat population don't actually behave and feel like expats – this is their home, and because of that they want to more than just sit by a swimming pool.
"You just have to go out in the winter months and see that the hills are awash with ramblers and cyclists and runners," Mr Sagoo said.
“We've got more campsite facilities than we've ever had before and that shows us that Dubai, as is place, is changing."
How will Gen Alpha invest?
Mark Chahwan, co-founder and chief executive of robo-advisory firm Sarwa, forecasts that Generation Alpha (born between 2010 and 2024) will start investing in their teenage years and therefore benefit from compound interest.
“Technology and education should be the main drivers to make this happen, whether it’s investing in a few clicks or their schools/parents stepping up their personal finance education skills,” he adds.
Mr Chahwan says younger generations have a higher capacity to take on risk, but for some their appetite can be more cautious because they are investing for the first time. “Schools still do not teach personal finance and stock market investing, so a lot of the learning journey can feel daunting and intimidating,” he says.
He advises millennials to not always start with an aggressive portfolio even if they can afford to take risks. “We always advise to work your way up to your risk capacity, that way you experience volatility and get used to it. Given the higher risk capacity for the younger generations, stocks are a favourite,” says Mr Chahwan.
Highlighting the role technology has played in encouraging millennials and Gen Z to invest, he says: “They were often excluded, but with lower account minimums ... a customer with $1,000 [Dh3,672] in their account has their money working for them just as hard as the portfolio of a high get-worth individual.”
Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory
The biog
Favourite book: Animal Farm by George Orwell
Favourite music: Classical
Hobbies: Reading and writing
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl, 48V hybrid
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 325bhp
Torque: 450Nm
Price: Dh359,000
On sale: now
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
U19 WORLD CUP, WEST INDIES
UAE group fixtures (all in St Kitts)
- Saturday 15 January: UAE beat Canada by 49 runs
- Thursday 20 January: v England
- Saturday 22 January: v Bangladesh
UAE squad:
Alishan Sharafu (captain), Shival Bawa, Jash Giyanani, Sailles
Jaishankar, Nilansh Keswani, Aayan Khan, Punya Mehra, Ali Naseer, Ronak Panoly,
Dhruv Parashar, Vinayak Raghavan, Soorya Sathish, Aryansh Sharma, Adithya
Shetty, Kai Smith
In-demand jobs and monthly salaries
- Technology expert in robotics and automation: Dh20,000 to Dh40,000
- Energy engineer: Dh25,000 to Dh30,000
- Production engineer: Dh30,000 to Dh40,000
- Data-driven supply chain management professional: Dh30,000 to Dh50,000
- HR leader: Dh40,000 to Dh60,000
- Engineering leader: Dh30,000 to Dh55,000
- Project manager: Dh55,000 to Dh65,000
- Senior reservoir engineer: Dh40,000 to Dh55,000
- Senior drilling engineer: Dh38,000 to Dh46,000
- Senior process engineer: Dh28,000 to Dh38,000
- Senior maintenance engineer: Dh22,000 to Dh34,000
- Field engineer: Dh6,500 to Dh7,500
- Field supervisor: Dh9,000 to Dh12,000
- Field operator: Dh5,000 to Dh7,000
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
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EMERGENCY PHONE NUMBERS
Estijaba – 8001717 – number to call to request coronavirus testing
Ministry of Health and Prevention – 80011111
Dubai Health Authority – 800342 – The number to book a free video or voice consultation with a doctor or connect to a local health centre
Emirates airline – 600555555
Etihad Airways – 600555666
Ambulance – 998
Knowledge and Human Development Authority – 8005432 ext. 4 for Covid-19 queries
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
FIRST TEST SCORES
England 458
South Africa 361 & 119 (36.4 overs)
England won by 211 runs and lead series 1-0
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The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
Griselda
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About Karol Nawrocki
• Supports military aid for Ukraine, unlike other eurosceptic leaders, but he will oppose its membership in western alliances.
• A nationalist, his campaign slogan was Poland First. "Let's help others, but let's take care of our own citizens first," he said on social media in April.
• Cultivates tough-guy image, posting videos of himself at shooting ranges and in boxing rings.
• Met Donald Trump at the White House and received his backing.
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Barcelona v Liverpool, Wednesday, 11pm (UAE).
Second leg
Liverpool v Barcelona, Tuesday, May 7, 11pm
Games on BeIN Sports
Tamkeen's offering
- Option 1: 70% in year 1, 50% in year 2, 30% in year 3
- Option 2: 50% across three years
- Option 3: 30% across five years
Fixtures:
Wed Aug 29 – Malaysia v Hong Kong, Nepal v Oman, UAE v Singapore
Thu Aug 30 - UAE v Nepal, Hong Kong v Singapore, Malaysia v Oman
Sat Sep 1 - UAE v Hong Kong, Oman v Singapore, Malaysia v Nepal
Sun Sep 2 – Hong Kong v Oman, Malaysia v UAE, Nepal v Singapore
Tue Sep 4 - Malaysia v Singapore, UAE v Oman, Nepal v Hong Kong
Thu Sep 6 – Final
Results
57kg quarter-finals
Zakaria Eljamari (UAE) beat Hamed Al Matari (YEM) by points 3-0.
60kg quarter-finals
Ibrahim Bilal (UAE) beat Hyan Aljmyah (SYR) RSC round 2.
63.5kg quarter-finals
Nouredine Samir (UAE) beat Shamlan A Othman (KUW) by points 3-0.
67kg quarter-finals
Mohammed Mardi (UAE) beat Ahmad Ondash (LBN) by points 2-1.
71kg quarter-finals
Ahmad Bahman (UAE) defeated Lalthasanga Lelhchhun (IND) by points 3-0.
Amine El Moatassime (UAE) beat Seyed Kaveh Safakhaneh (IRI) by points 3-0.
81kg quarter-finals
Ilyass Habibali (UAE) beat Ahmad Hilal (PLE) by points 3-0
