Covid-19 cases could be 'close to a billion' worldwide, expert says

London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine director tells Dubai event he expects the coronavirus to circulate for years

People wait to be vaccinated against Covid-19 at a health centre, in Cairo, Egypt. Reuters

The doctor advising the president of the European Commission on its Covid-19 response said he "wouldn't be surprised if close to a billion people have been infected" with the coronavirus.

This figure is far higher than the official case count of 124.7 million worldwide, and double the number of people who were infected with the 1918 Spanish influenza.

Dr Peter Piot, who is also director of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said vaccines would dramatically reduce deaths and hospital admissions, but coronavirus would continue to circulate for years to come.

Experts have long said that it is far more widespread than case counts suggest.

The real figure has been difficult to determine, in part because up to a quarter of coronavirus patients are asymptomatic, the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention said.

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  A Dubai ambulance worker is vaccinated with the Pfizer-BioNtech vaccine in Dubai.

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  An older resident receives her first shot at Zabeel Health Centre on December 27, 2020.

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  The vaccine is expected to be rolled out to all age groups once people in the essential categories have been vaccinated.

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  A nurse holds a dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, which was approved for use by Dubai's emergency and crisis authority and the federal Ministry of Health.

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  An employee from Roads and Transport Authority receives a dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine in Dubai.

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  A woman receives a dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine at Zabeel Health Centre in Dubai on 27 December, 2020.

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  The city has six vaccine centres where the Pfizer-BioNTech shot is available.

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  A man waits to receive the first of two doses at Zabeel Health Centre in Dubai on 27 December, 2020.

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  A nurse opens a freezer at Barsha Health Centre. The Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine must be kept at minus 70C when transported.

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  A nurse opens a freezer at Barsha Health Centre. The Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine must be kept at minus 70C when transported.

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  A vial of the vaccine is seen at Barsha Health Centre. AFP

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  A nurse prepares a dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine at al-Barsha Health Centre in Dubai. AFP

This means people may not know they even had Covid-19, increasing the risk of infecting others.

But an accurate count of cases is critical to controlling the pandemic.

"No country is safe unless every country is safe," Dr Piot said on Tuesday, at an event hosted by the Dubai Future Foundation.

"This is not just a moral issue. As long as the virus is circulating anywhere in the world, no one is safe."

The expert, who co-discovered the Ebola virus in 1974 and led research into HIV-Aids, said the biggest obstacle now was producing an adequate number of vaccines.

Only one human virus has ever been eradicated and that is smallpox

"Companies are used to producing millions of vaccines but not billions," Dr Piot said.

But seeking to eradicate Covid-19 "is not necessary", he said.

Instead, over time, people should think of it as seasonal influenza.

How many people are vaccinated and how long people are immune before they can be reinfected are two questions that will determine the longer-term impact of the global pandemic, Dr Piot said.

Covid-19 has been shown to affect every organ of the body and can have lingering symptoms. Both factors are set to add to the burden of the healthcare system in the longer term, Dr Piot said.

"Going back to normal as before is an illusion," he said.

When you look at future scenarios, there may be outbreaks every year or every other year, but thanks to vaccination there will be much lower mortality rates, he said.

Herd immunity, Dr Piot said, would be challenging to achieve because of seasonal variations and the mutations and variants that are already being observed in different parts of the world.

This means there will always be new viruses to confront, he said.

"Only one human virus has ever been eradicated and that is smallpox.

"That took a long time. We should aim for that but it's going to take a while."