Middle East must do more to predict disasters from climate change, report warns


Daniel Bardsley
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As the Middle East faces severe consequences from climate change, action needs to be taken to identify threats that could lead to humanitarian disasters, a conference heard on Tuesday.

At the launch in Dubai of a report called 'Anticipatory Action in the Mena region: State of Play and Accelerating Action', officials said greater investment was needed to help communities before crises developed.

Efforts could include advance support for poorer areas that face disruption to their agricultural production as a result of climate change.

The International Monetary Fund in March issued a stark warning that the Middle East and Central Asia face dire economic and financial consequences if nothing is done to address the worsening climate crisis.

Warnings have been there, but the decision-making process has not been lined up to say, ‘This is what we’re going to do.’ That’s what anticipatory action can do
Oscar Ekdahl,
World Food Programme

In its report, the IMF said so far this century, in an average year, climate disasters in the Middle East and Central Asia have injured or displaced 7 million people, caused more than 2,600 deaths and resulted in $2 billion in damage.

The conference at International Humanitarian City to launch the latest report on Tuesday — titled 'Road to Cop27: Anticipatory Action Milestones and Way Forward' — heard that many parts of the region were not ready for the food insecurity, droughts and increased natural disasters that stem from climate change.

“Over the past couple of years, it’s become clear to all of us how seriously the region is at risk,” said Dane McQueen, director of programmes and partnerships at the office of the UAE Climate Change Special Envoy.

“Given that we’re warming twice as fast as the rest of the globe, it’s likely that we’ll see growing impacts that we don’t have many great options to alleviate.”

While the threats are significant, Mr McQueen said “so many of these climate disasters are predictable” and it was important for action to take place before problems, such as food insecurity, developed in particular areas.

Humanitarian agencies should, he suggested, release funds to combat looming threats based on forecasts, as this would allow for a timely response.

“We’re keen to work with all climate and humanitarian actors to see what we can achieve at Cop27, Cop28 and probably Cop29 and 30,” Mr McQueen said, referencing the forthcoming UN Climate Change Conferences, the next two of which will be held in the region, in Egypt this year and in the UAE in 2023.

Better prepared

As well as causing average temperatures to increase, climate change is expected to lead to a greater frequency of extreme weather events, including droughts and floods, that can result in humanitarian crises.

The report, released by the World Food Programme (WFP) and the Overseas Development Institute, a London-based organisation, highlights how anticipatory action — taken before a disaster to mitigate its most damaging effects and to speed up recovery — comes on top of established approaches to disaster reduction and seasonal preparedness.

“To date, there has been no concentrated attention paid to the progress and potential for anticipatory action across the region,” the report states.

“Given the extent of humanitarian action in the region, there is great hope that applying lessons from the global experience, as well as bringing experiences from the Mena region to the fore, will help advance this agenda.”

The report outlines four key components: forecasting, risk information and early warning systems; planning; financing; and delivery.

An essential part of delivering action is, the report stated, “effective disaster management and social protection systems that can deliver timely assistance to at-risk populations”.

While it says “efforts are being made” to enhance forecasting and risk information in the Mena region, the report warns that capacity, co-ordination and the translation of warnings into action is inadequate.

The report says systems need to be strengthened and greater support from governments is needed, while funds must be sourced from across the globe.

“Ultimately, dedicated funding to prioritise anticipatory action in the context of broader efforts to reduce and manage disaster risk, and to enhance preparedness, will be required,” the report says.

Growing food insecurity

Until now, warnings of impending crises have sometimes not been acted on, suggested Oscar Ekdahl, a Cairo-based regional programme officer for disaster risk management and climate change at the WFP.

“In the past, there have been early warnings of drought but we’ve not acted,” he said.

“Warnings have been there, but the decision-making process has not been lined up to say, ‘This is what we’re going to do.’ That’s what anticipatory action can do."

Mageed Yahia, director of the WFP for the GCC, told the conference there could not be “a more pressing time” when it came to the region’s food situation.

Mageed Yahia said 345 million people around the world face acute food insecurity – double the pre-pandemic number. Leslie Pableo / The National
Mageed Yahia said 345 million people around the world face acute food insecurity – double the pre-pandemic number. Leslie Pableo / The National

“Three years after the pandemic and the cost of increasing food prices and ongoing conflicts and the impact of climate change are driving the number in the population in need of humanitarian assistance,” he said.

Now, he said, 345 million people around the world face acute food insecurity — double the pre-pandemic number.

He said the WFP was investing in early-warning systems in countries such as Jordan and Yemen to identify where food insecurity may develop.

“We hope that more partners will join us in moving ahead,” he said.

“I’m also encouraged that there is representation from the UAE. The UAE is taking bold steps to reduce emissions and to respond to climate change at home and abroad.”

Dr Emad Adly, general co-ordinator at the Arab Network for Environment and Development, told the conference that Cop27, to be held in Sharm El Sheikh in November, offered an opportunity to strengthen advance action to prevent crises.

He said organisations, including UN agencies and international organisations, would be able to develop projects outside of the main conference agenda.

“We have to give more support to the hotspots in our countries,” he said.

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Key recommendations
  • Fewer criminals put behind bars and more to serve sentences in the community, with short sentences scrapped and many inmates released earlier.
  • Greater use of curfews and exclusion zones to deliver tougher supervision than ever on criminals.
  • Explore wider powers for judges to punish offenders by blocking them from attending football matches, banning them from driving or travelling abroad through an expansion of ‘ancillary orders’.
  • More Intensive Supervision Courts to tackle the root causes of crime such as alcohol and drug abuse – forcing repeat offenders to take part in tough treatment programmes or face prison.
Conflict, drought, famine

Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.

Band Aid

Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.

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Total fights: 32
Wins: 28
Wins by KO: 26
Losses: 4

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Tips to stay safe during hot weather
  • Stay hydrated: Drink plenty of fluids, especially water. Avoid alcohol and caffeine, which can increase dehydration.
  • Seek cool environments: Use air conditioning, fans, or visit community spaces with climate control.
  • Limit outdoor activities: Avoid strenuous activity during peak heat. If outside, seek shade and wear a wide-brimmed hat.
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  • Check on vulnerable people: Regularly check in on elderly neighbours, young children and those with health conditions.
  • Home adaptations: Use blinds or curtains to block sunlight, avoid using ovens or stoves, and ventilate living spaces during cooler hours.
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5pm: Jabel Faya – Maiden (PA) Dh60,000 (T) 1,000m; Winner: AF Rasam, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel

5.30pm: Al Wathba Stallions Cup – Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 2,200m; Winner: AF Mukhrej, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel

6pm: The President’s Cup Prep – Conditions (PA) Dh100,000 (T) 2,200m; Winner: Mujeeb, Richard Mullen, Salem Al Ketbi

6.30pm: Abu Dhabi Equestrian Club – Prestige (PA) Dh125,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Jawal Al Reef, Antonio Fresu, Abubakar Daud

7pm: Al Ruwais – Group 3 (PA) Dh300,000 (T) 1,200m; Winner: Ashton Tourettes, Pat Dobbs, Ibrahim Aseel

7.30pm: Jebel Hafeet – Maiden (TB) Dh80,000 (T) 1,400m; Winner: Nibraas, Richard Mullen, Nicholas Bachalard

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
2018 ICC World Twenty20 Asian Western Sub Regional Qualifier

Event info: The tournament in Kuwait this month is the first phase of the qualifying process for sides from Asia for the 2020 World T20 in Australia. The UAE must finish within the top three teams out of the six at the competition to advance to the Asia regional finals. Success at regional finals would mean progression to the World T20 Qualifier.

UAE’s fixtures: Fri Apr 20, UAE v Qatar; Sat Apr 21, UAE v Saudi Arabia; Mon Apr 23, UAE v Bahrain; Tue Apr 24, UAE v Maldives; Thu Apr 26, UAE v Kuwait

World T20 2020 Qualifying process:

  • Sixteen teams will play at the World T20 in two years’ time.
  • Australia have already qualified as hosts
  • Nine places are available to the top nine ranked sides in the ICC’s T20i standings, not including Australia, on Dec 31, 2018.
  • The final six teams will be decided by a 14-team World T20 Qualifier.

World T20 standings: 1 Pakistan; 2 Australia; 3 India; 4 New Zealand; 5 England; 6 South Africa; 7 West Indies; 8 Sri Lanka; 9 Afghanistan; 10 Bangladesh; 11 Scotland; 12 Zimbabwe; 13 UAE; 14 Netherlands; 15 Hong Kong; 16 Papua New Guinea; 17 Oman; 18 Ireland

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2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups

Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.

Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.

Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.

Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, Leon.

Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.

Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.

Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.

Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.

Updated: August 10, 2022, 11:06 AM`