Beside sparkling Mediterranean waters at the Cypriot resort town of Ayia Napa, the bars are bouncing with foam dance parties as tourist numbers rebound following two tough years of the pandemic.
But one key nationality is effectively missing: Russian visitors, as the once lucrative market has been hit by EU sanctions imposed after Moscow invaded Ukraine.
"This year, we expected 800,000 Russian tourists," said Haris Loizides, head of the Cyprus Hotel Association.
The Russian market "was wiped out from one day to the next", said Christos Angelides, head of the Pancyprian Association of Hotel Managers. "Nobody was prepared for this huge change."
The key tourism sector, which had contributed €2.68 billion ($2.72bn) in 2019, or 15 per cent of the country's GDP, is still counting the cost of the disastrous years of Covid-19 travel chaos.
In 2019, before the start of the pandemic, a fifth of tourists were Russian — 782,000 out of 3.9 million — making it the holiday island's second largest market after Britain.
Last year, despite tough coronavirus travel restrictions, that share rose to more than 25 per cent, with arrivals from Russia totalling nearly 520,000 out of 1.93m.
Operators had hoped this summer would see Russian numbers return to pre-pandemic levels.
Flight bans, banking sanctions
About 18,000 Russians are resident in Cyprus, many in the seaside town of Limassol, dubbed by some "Moscow on the Med".
But, with EU sanctions on Russia continuing and with no let-up in the bloodshed on Ukraine's battlefields, only 17,000 Russian tourists came to Cyprus between January and June.
"Our hotel is doing well, but others — who had 100 per cent Russian clientele — are not," said Angelides, who is also manager of the Napa Mermaid Hotel.
Nicosia and Moscow have close political and cultural ties, but when Russia sent troops into Ukraine, the Cypriot Parliament unanimously passed a resolution condemning the invasion.
Cyprus, the EU's most easterly member, backed the bloc's actions on Moscow, including a flight ban and sanctions barring some Russian banks from the Swift financial system.
The tourism ministry says fewer Russian visitors could mean about $600m in potential lost earnings.
Overall, tourist arrivals in Cyprus are bouncing back, thanks to strong demand in other key markets following the lifting of coronavirus restrictions.
From January to June, Cyprus recorded 1.2m visitors, nearly five times the level last year, and the white sand beaches at Ayia Napa are crowded with sunseekers and partygoers.
But that is still 25 per cent down on the same period of 2019, when 1.63m tourists came to Cyprus.
"We have somewhat limited the damage, but it is impossible to replace this huge number of customers," Angelides added.
'Big gap'
In the first half of this year, British tourists made up nearly two-fifths of visitors, followed by Israelis, making up 7 per cent of visitors, then Poland, Germany and Greece.
"There have been many attempts by several sectors to encourage tourists from other markets, such as the German, Polish, Italian and French markets," said Charis Papacharalambous, spokesman of the Association of Cyprus Travel Agents.
But it was still "very difficult to fill the big gap" left by Russian tourists, he said, with industry experts fearing the impact may still worsen, because many Russians previously preferred to visit later in the year.
For Loizides, from the island's hotel association, the war in Ukraine has also provided another problem.
Surging global costs of fuel sparked by the conflict have driven electricity prices higher.
With tourists turning the air conditioning on full blast to counter the sweltering heat of Cyprus, hotels are struggling with "astronomical bills", Loizides said.
"The EU must remedy this situation and help companies, especially at a time when inflation is raging."
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Will the pound fall to parity with the dollar?
The idea of pound parity now seems less far-fetched as the risk grows that Britain may split away from the European Union without a deal.
Rupert Harrison, a fund manager at BlackRock, sees the risk of it falling to trade level with the dollar on a no-deal Brexit. The view echoes Morgan Stanley’s recent forecast that the currency can plunge toward $1 (Dh3.67) on such an outcome. That isn’t the majority view yet – a Bloomberg survey this month estimated the pound will slide to $1.10 should the UK exit the bloc without an agreement.
New Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly said that Britain will leave the EU on the October 31 deadline with or without an agreement, fuelling concern the nation is headed for a disorderly departure and fanning pessimism toward the pound. Sterling has fallen more than 7 per cent in the past three months, the worst performance among major developed-market currencies.
“The pound is at a much lower level now but I still think a no-deal exit would lead to significant volatility and we could be testing parity on a really bad outcome,” said Mr Harrison, who manages more than $10 billion in assets at BlackRock. “We will see this game of chicken continue through August and that’s likely negative for sterling,” he said about the deadlocked Brexit talks.
The pound fell 0.8 per cent to $1.2033 on Friday, its weakest closing level since the 1980s, after a report on the second quarter showed the UK economy shrank for the first time in six years. The data means it is likely the Bank of England will cut interest rates, according to Mizuho Bank.
The BOE said in November that the currency could fall even below $1 in an analysis on possible worst-case Brexit scenarios. Options-based calculations showed around a 6.4 per cent chance of pound-dollar parity in the next one year, markedly higher than 0.2 per cent in early March when prospects of a no-deal outcome were seemingly off the table.
Bloomberg
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Tailors and retailers miss out on back-to-school rush
Tailors and retailers across the city said it was an ominous start to what is usually a busy season for sales.
With many parents opting to continue home learning for their children, the usual rush to buy school uniforms was muted this year.
“So far we have taken about 70 to 80 orders for items like shirts and trousers,” said Vikram Attrai, manager at Stallion Bespoke Tailors in Dubai.
“Last year in the same period we had about 200 orders and lots of demand.
“We custom fit uniform pieces and use materials such as cotton, wool and cashmere.
“Depending on size, a white shirt with logo is priced at about Dh100 to Dh150 and shorts, trousers, skirts and dresses cost between Dh150 to Dh250 a piece.”
A spokesman for Threads, a uniform shop based in Times Square Centre Dubai, said customer footfall had slowed down dramatically over the past few months.
“Now parents have the option to keep children doing online learning they don’t need uniforms so it has quietened down.”
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