A week is a long time in politics, but a year is an eternity. For Turkey’s embattled prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it must seem like another era.
A year ago, Mr Erdogan was riding high. He had led Turkey for a decade and showed no sign of stopping. In that time, he had transformed the country: its economy was rocketing along, it was a regional power and a model for other countries. Unlike Greece, its economy was strong; unlike Israel, it had good relations with its neighbours; unlike Egypt, its institutions worked. The Arabs loved him (he was voted the most admired world leader) and the West feted him (he topped Time magazine’s 2011 Person of the Year poll).
Now however Mr Erdogan looks vulnerable. With a presidential election scheduled for late 2014 – which Mr Erdogan is widely expected to contest – he is beset by trouble. He mishandled protests in his capital city this summer. His liberal opponents charge that he is taking the country down too Islamist a path. A still-running corruption scandal has destroyed the moral authority of his government and led to calls for Mr Erdogan, once the most popular Turkish leader since Ataturk, to resign.
And yet, despite Mr Erdogan’s current political woes, the country remains as strong as it was a year ago.
The economy has slowed since the summer, although it is expected to grow by around four per cent this coming year, which is still far better than the stagnant eurozone that surrounds Turkey. It is better even than Germany, Europe’s strongest nation. Unemployment is also at relatively low and manageable levels.
Regionally, Turkey’s influence has fallen after the removal of Egypt’s Islamist president and the Islamist-led Tunisian coalition. Mr Erdogan’s forceful approach to Syria has quieted as it became clear there was no Western appetite for intervention. But the country remains courted by allies – Baghdad is keen to preserve good relations, despite Turkey’s overtures to the Kurdish region. And as the best run democracy in the region, the country, if not Mr Erdogan, is still a model for Arab countries as they transition through the Arab Spring.
The case for Turkey remains strong, even if Mr Erdogan’s political future is in doubt. Whoever leads the Middle East’s powerhouse in 2014 will inherit a country very different from the one a decade ago.
Some of Darwish's last words
"They see their tomorrows slipping out of their reach. And though it seems to them that everything outside this reality is heaven, yet they do not want to go to that heaven. They stay, because they are afflicted with hope." - Mahmoud Darwish, to attendees of the Palestine Festival of Literature, 2008
His life in brief: Born in a village near Galilee, he lived in exile for most of his life and started writing poetry after high school. He was arrested several times by Israel for what were deemed to be inciteful poems. Most of his work focused on the love and yearning for his homeland, and he was regarded the Palestinian poet of resistance. Over the course of his life, he published more than 30 poetry collections and books of prose, with his work translated into more than 20 languages. Many of his poems were set to music by Arab composers, most significantly Marcel Khalife. Darwish died on August 9, 2008 after undergoing heart surgery in the United States. He was later buried in Ramallah where a shrine was erected in his honour.
Iran's dirty tricks to dodge sanctions
There’s increased scrutiny on the tricks being used to keep commodities flowing to and from blacklisted countries. Here’s a description of how some work.
1 Going Dark
A common method to transport Iranian oil with stealth is to turn off the Automatic Identification System, an electronic device that pinpoints a ship’s location. Known as going dark, a vessel flicks the switch before berthing and typically reappears days later, masking the location of its load or discharge port.
2. Ship-to-Ship Transfers
A first vessel will take its clandestine cargo away from the country in question before transferring it to a waiting ship, all of this happening out of sight. The vessels will then sail in different directions. For about a third of Iranian exports, more than one tanker typically handles a load before it’s delivered to its final destination, analysts say.
3. Fake Destinations
Signaling the wrong destination to load or unload is another technique. Ships that intend to take cargo from Iran may indicate their loading ports in sanction-free places like Iraq. Ships can keep changing their destinations and end up not berthing at any of them.
4. Rebranded Barrels
Iranian barrels can also be rebranded as oil from a nation free from sanctions such as Iraq. The countries share fields along their border and the crude has similar characteristics. Oil from these deposits can be trucked out to another port and documents forged to hide Iran as the origin.
* Bloomberg
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)