When England meet Argentina in their World Cup semi-final in Atlanta on Wednesday, the referee may be watched as closely as the players. Fifa's appointment of the American official Ismail Elfath, described by some media outlets as Lionel Messi's "favourite referee", has intensified favouritism claims and the 'VARgentina' tag spreading online.
Data from Brennan Klein of Northeastern University's NetSI Sport group measured how often VAR decisions go for or against each side per 100 fouls across the group stage through the round of 16, counting only changed decisions, with offside overturns included.
Mexico and Argentina come out most favoured, with favourable rates of 7.8 and 6.7 respectively; Croatia and Iran had the most go against them, with 6.5 and 6.4, respectively. Other countries have nearly equal values for both sides, such as Austria (3.6, both in favour of and against them), Brazil (1.7 in favour and 1.8 against) and Egypt (1.4 in favour and 1.6 against). The author emphasises that the figures show where referees missed fouls the VAR later flagged, not proof of bias.
On May 31, the International Football Association Board (Ifab) published a statement on expanded VAR powers. Under an Ifab clarification, officials can now intervene when the attacking side commits a clear foul before the ball is in play at a corner or free kick that directly affects a goal, penalty or card, prompting an on-field review and a retake.
Much of the scrutiny can be traced back to Egypt's 3-2 defeat by Argentina in the round of 16. The Pharaohs had a Mostafa Zico goal ruled out for a VAR-spotted foul and had two penalty appeals waved away before they conceded three times in 14 minutes to lose 3-2. Coach Hossam Hassan called the result unfair, and Egypt put the officials under scrutiny.
