Will Clippers, Celtics, Spurs or another team prevent a Cavs-Warriors Finals?: NBA 2016/17 preview

Agency photos; The National illustration

The National’s resident basketball fans Jonathan Raymond and Kevin Jeffers count down the days until the NBA’s October 26 tip-off by discussing the league’s hottest talking points.

Previously they discussed the Cavs and Warriors? Today, the focus is on the teams trying to catch them.

• Jeffers: Yesterday we looked at the inevitable march to a third straight Warriors-Cavaliers Finals. Today, let's loosen our collars and talk about which teams could possibly prevent such a thing.

Let’s start with the West, where outside of Kevin Durant’s NWO-style change of shirts and Tim Duncan’s retirement in San Antonio, not much is different. The Spurs replaced Duncan with Pau Gasol, who is old but still should be an offensive upgrade. The Clippers are the same team as they’ve been the past few years, but with an improving JJ Redick and their two best players going into contract years. Memphis kept its core and added Chandler Parsons, which if injuries hold off (cough) could make them the second best team in the conference. And two of the Blazers, Rocket, Mavericks and Thunder might have to give up their play-off spots for the Jazz and/or Timberwolves.

What say you about the West’s second tier?

• Raymond: Poor Anthony Davis' Pelicans don't even warrant a mention. We need to get that dude out of New Orleans.

I’m terrified of disavowing a Gregg Popovich-coached club in public, but I think the Spurs will ultimately lose more in Tim Duncan’s defence than they gain in Pau Gasol’s offence. I reckon the second seed is in play.

I love James Harden, and I like a lot what the Rockets have in place. Beyond just the James Harden Point Guard Experience (which I endorse fully), they have Ryan Anderson, Nene and Eric Gordon now, all veterans with their warts but also multifaceted offensive talents. If Clint Capela can step up as a rim protector they might even be able to play passable defence sometimes (according to nba.com/stats he allowed opponents a 59.8 per cent shooting percentage in the restricted area and 39.3 in the non-RA paint, which is good-not-great territory; he was also only 21 last season).

It’s the Rockets, which means it’s a Daryl Morey mad scientist experiment that could explode just as easily as it could work, but I’m intrigued.

The Blazers went a remarkably long way last year on a team composed of a Damian Lillard-CJ McCollum backcourt and a deep supporting collection of dudes who admirably do not stink. To that collection, they have added Evan Turner and Festus Ezeli. I bet the Warios (get it? Like the Super Mario villain) lose to them once in the regular season.

The Mavericks have a funky thing going on that should be fun to watch (Andrew Bogut! Harrison Barnes! Stephen Curry’s brother!).

There are two cases that stand out to me, kind of in opposite ways, that I want your opinion on: the Clippers (have they peaked?) and the Timberwolves (are they close enough to being a real threat, right now?).

• Jeffers: I have to see the Rockets or any Mike D'Antoni team play defence before I believe they can. Regarding the Clippers, I think this could finally be the Chris Paul-MVP year to shut his critics up for good. Even if their apex is the Western Conference Finals, that's still the furthest the franchise will have ever gone, and Paul will rightfully go down as the team's biggest legend before joining the Warriors next season in free agency. They'd be my pick for the No 2 seed, and if they can turn Paul Pierce into 15-years-ago Paul Pierce (or realistically add a legitimate 3), maybe they can win it all.

We’ll talk about the Timberwolves more later in the week, but I really think they’re ready for the play-offs right now. That’s how much I believe in Tom Thibodeau. Team mascot Kevin Garnett isn’t there to steal minutes, Andrew Wiggins finally has a coach who can teach him defence, and Karl Anthony Towns is the league’s next game-changing player. The only questions are at point guard – Ricky Rubio doesn’t fit the mould and is likely on his way out eventually – and what the best type of big man is to pair next to Towns.

It’s a shame the Wolves aren’t in the East, where a 4 seed wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility. As it is, all the talk seems to be about Boston as the only possible Cavaliers usurper. Al Horford is my favourite player ever and should be brilliant fitting into what could be the best defence in the league, but I wonder if they have enough shooting to keep up with Cleveland. I think the 2 seed is a safe bet, but they’re not to the Cavs’ level yet.

We probably saw the best version of the Raptors last season, and it wasn't close to enough to win the East. The Hawks could finish anywhere from second to tenth with their new-look whatever-they're-doing. The Pistons were a potential sleeper before preseason injuries started piling up. Then there are a bunch of good-not-great also-rans like Charlotte and Indiana.

I don’t know, the East bores me. What is there to be excited about in that race?

• Raymond: I'm squinting. I want to find something.

Like you said, the Celtics have something there. Horford is one of the two or three best in the game at what he does, and Isaiah Thomas is a fringe star-level player. Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder, Amir Johnson Kelly Olynyk — one of the most solid supporting casts in the league.

I think Marcus Smart is on the cusp of blooming into something big. Jaylen Brown was one of my favourite picks in the draft, and I think he’s going to be a two-way star.

After that, I don't know if "excited" is the right word, but there's a lot that's interesting. The Knicks' super-team experiment. The Magic with Serge Ibaka. Can Washington put the once so bright John Wall-Bradley Beal future back together again? The Bulls' avant-garde protest against the three-point shot.

I think you’re probably right about the Raptors, but I also generally think they’re still probably good enough to be close to the top of the conference. We’ll see if there’s another level for Jonas Valanciunas to reach.

I like the Pacers. Paul George is still only 26!

Any other team out there stand out like that for you?

• Jeffers: I think Utah is going to be really good if Gordon Hayward comes back healthy and Rudy Gobert stays upright. Hayward is on a contract year, and this will be the best chance for the Jazz to play well enough to convince him to stay. I was bullish on Milwaukee before the Khris Middleton injury. Atlanta intrigues me if Dwight Howard has a renaissance, because they haven't been able to rebound in the Mike Budenholzer area and he'll at least do that. But they lack the volume of outside shooting that makes that system hum.

But none of those teams are really on the cusp of being where we started with this: Who can possibly beat out the Warriors or Cavs to make the Finals?

The Clippers or Celtics — if they add a Paul Millsap-type of player before the deadline — are feasible. Other than that, it’s just moving pawns around waiting for the checkmate (chess reference).

• Raymond: I feel like there is a team out there waiting to shock us all with just how good they will be. I just ... I dunno. In a near-term sense, it won't be enough to matter. It can't. The Warriors and Cavs have this locked down.

But, it was also nearly impossible to see Stephen Curry turning into an MVP and Golden State growing into a powerhouse when they went from “very bad” to “hey pretty good” in 2012/13. So in a long-term sense ...

I think there’s a 2013 Warriors somewhere out there in the NBA this year.

Maybe not a 2013 Warriors on their way to becoming the 2016 Warriors. That would be, uh, a lot. But on their way to something big. There’s too much good young talent in the league right now for it not to blossom into greatness somewhere.

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