For the fourth time in eight years, Lewis Hamilton arrives at the final race of a Formula One schedule capable of closing out the year as world champion.
The fact that he secured the title only once from his experiences in 2007, 2008 and 2010 should not be held against him. In fact, the involvement should give him the upper hand in his duel in the desert with his Mercedes-GP teammate Nico Rosberg.
Graham Caygill on why Nico Rosberg would be a worthy F1 champion in 2014.
In 2007, Hamilton was a rookie at McLaren, entangled in an intra-team war with Fernando Alonso and lost by a point to Ferrari’s Kimi Raikkonen.
The next year, the Briton became, at 23, the youngest champion in history by pipping Felipe Massa on the final day at Massa’s home race in Brazil.
In 2010, he arrived in Abu Dhabi as one of a quartet of drivers mathematically capable of winning the drivers’ championship before losing out to Sebastian Vettel.
Hamilton’s experiences of final day drama are, then, almost all-encompassing: he has narrowly won, narrowly lost and raced with nothing to lose.
In contrast, this weekend he arrives at Yas Marina Circuit with a 17-point lead and with everything to lose.
But he also knows he is unlikely to have to risk as much as Rosberg, the German who has never been in a title fight going into a curtain-closer.
Hamilton needs to finish second to guarantee a second title. Should he qualify on pole position, which he has done twice at Yas Marina, his hand will be strengthened.
Rosberg would have to pass his teammate knowing that a collision would hand the title to Hamilton. He would also have to pass as quickly as possible to allow another driver, presumably a Williams, the time and opportunity to relegate Hamilton further down.
The last time Hamilton passed the chequered flag third was at the Hungarian Grand Prix in July and, save for three unpreventable retirements, he has not finished a race outside the podium places this season.
This suggests that, if Rosberg does not win the race, he cannot win the championship.
Should Rosberg finish second, Hamilton needs only to finish fifth – the same position he secured in Brazil in 2008 when he usurped Massa atop the standings by a point.
Rosberg’s greatest title hope, then, requires Hamilton’s car to break down, which is a strong enough reason to conclude that the German has not done enough this year to deserve to be champion.
Hamilton has won 10 of the 15 grands prix he has finished, he has taken seven pole positions and seven fastest laps and has shown his aggressive, determined and exciting style of driving. He has converted six of his seven poles, compared to Rosberg’s three from 10.
The one pole Hamilton did not convert was at the season-opening race where he was forced to retire. Had his car not failed him, he may have had the title wrapped up already.
His second retirement of the season came in Canada because of brake problems – and then there was Belgium.
At Spa-Francorchamps, Rosberg collided with Hamilton on Lap 2 causing the Briton to retire while Rosberg took second. The German was roundly booed by the fans and forced to issue a sheepish apology after admitting he did it deliberately.
It proved the turning of the tide as Hamilton showed his mental strength to be more superior than his teammate and won the next five races. If he does not win the championship, it would be difficult to say Rosberg – with one win in his last eight races – is worthy.
The consistent race champion deserves to be the world champion. The consistent nearly man deserves to beat the nearly man and that is, fortunately, the most likely outcome.
gmeenaghan@thenational.ae
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